Mugabe exit plan: in whose interest is it?

According to Africa Confidential the battle for succession was still wide. Mnangagwa would have the backing of the securocrats and military while Sekeremayi would have the support of party stalwarts including chairman John Nkomo. They could in turn be challenged by the younger men, Information Minister Jonathan Moyo and Agriculture Minister Joseph Made. Mnangagwa dismissed the reports as the work of British intelligence.

Sekeremayi (59) has managed to keep a low profile since he took over the intelligence organisation from Mnangagwa in 1988. He has managed to keep a clean profile despite the "dirt" linked to the Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) and seems to have cleaned up the intelligence organisation as well, at the same time building his power base, especially in Mashonaland East and his Marondera constituency.

Though the succession plan has been shot down, but continues to resurface now and again, what was interesting was how opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai would be slotted in and the amount of money the British were prepared to pour into the country to revive the economy. According to Tsvangirai he was approached by retired army officer Lionel Dycke on behalf of Mnangagwa and Zvinavashe, but he says no agreement was reached.

While Dycke was a respected commander of the crack 6 Brigade, an elite unit that comprised mostly youths with at least O-level, he was also a commander of the Rhodesian units that spearheaded raids into ZANLA camps in Mozambique during the liberation struggle. Six Brigade was disbanded amid allegations of threats of revolt from the young soldiers who were not keen to fight the war in Mozambique where they were protecting the Beira pipeline arguing that they saw no reason why they should sacrifice their lives when whites controlled 98 percent of the economy.

The choice of Dycke as an emissary for Mnangagwa and Zvinavashe tells a lot about how the two view Tsvangirai, especially in view of the fact that Dycke seems to have held direct meetings with Tsvangirai rather than with one of his lieutenants, something that almost sparked a split within the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) when party spokesman Paul Themba Nyathi dismissed the report saying he knew nothing about the meetings. The so-called meetings were also reminiscent of another alleged bungle by Tsvangirai when he was allegedly video-taped discussing the overthrow of Mugabe with Ari Ben Menashe.

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