Mugabe exit plan: in whose interest is it?

If indeed the plan were to go ahead and Mnangagwa were to run the government during the transitional period, this could give him the lifeline that he has been denied by his own party because with the aid from Britain, likely to be followed by that from other donors, Mnangagwa could be credited with resuscitating the country and could therefore win the vote ahead of Tsvangirai, who like former ZAPU leader, Joshua Nkomo, would be permanently confined to number 2.

Mnangagwa seems to have an outstanding business record. He spearheaded party business operations as secretary for finance. His name has also been linked with business magnates like Billy Rautenbach and John Bredenkamp, a Briton, just to name a few. Over the years, The Insider, has also been made to believe that the white business sector favours him because, as the Sunday Mirror reported, he is "a strong ruthless person who is not easily manipulated." And after all, Mnangagwa's biggest blemish was the atrocities of the 1980s. They hardly count to the West and big business because this was black-on-black violence.

But, though the so-called exit plan has been scuttled, this does not mean an end to Mnangagwa's chances. Mugabe could hand him over the leadership on a silver plate if he wants him to be his successor. This could be done as early as next year when the party holds its crucial congress. Mugabe could step down as party leader and ensure that Mnangagwa is elected the new party leader. This would enable Mugabe to remain nominal state president while he leaves the day-to-day running of affairs to Mnangagwa.

Mnangagwa could then build his own power base, and will have four years to do this. The only thing the two would have to do is to make sure that the ruling ZANU-PF wins the 2005 parliamentary elections so that a victory by the MDC does not cause a constitutional crisis. This should be an easy task as they have a lot of experience in "winning" elections. This would be a nobler exit for Mugabe. He will not have to go into exile. And he will not need to accommodate Tsvangirai, a man he has denounced from his trade union days.

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