The notion that ZANU-PF has lost control of rural voters is, however, wishful thinking and demonstrably false.
Complaints by NGOs and opposition parties regarding ZANU-PF officials’ extensive interference in the construction of the new voters roll in rural areas is evidence of the party’s continued control.
ZANU-PF controls rural areas primarily through the institutions of local governance (which determine rural life in a multitude of ways, including the distribution of food aid) and monopoly over the only media to which rural dwellers have access – the electronic media.
Zimbabwe has only one state-controlled TV station, and the few private radio stations are controlled by ZANU-PF proxies.
The Mnangagwa administration and pending elections present an opportunity for the ‘normalisation’ of Zimbabwean politics and for the international community to draw a line under the long-running Zimbabwe crisis. It is not an opportunity they intend to squander.
The international community is determined to endorse any half-way decent election devoid of endemic bloodshed. Any poll not characterised by electoral fraud so blatant that one’s eyes cannot be averted will be regarded as passing muster by most international observers.
The MDC Alliance will win enough seats in Parliament to keep the new Mnangagwa government on its toes, if not entirely honest. Mnangagwa’s survival is not dependent on the elections.
The real question is whether the economic hole dug by Mugabe is so deep as to be insurmountable. Economic collapse would presage a return to the laager mentality of Mugabe and all the political repression that would entail.
By Derek Matyszak for ISS Today.
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