If not Mugabe, then Who?

This is an interesting question posed by South African online newspaper, The Daily Maverick.

It says, despite the mass protests organised in the past month, history tells us that it is foolish to bet against Mugabe.  

“But even if Mugabe does fall, it’s far from clear who might follow him,” it says before suggesting the possible contenders.

Here is The Daily Maverick’s take:

Grace Mugabe, wife of the president, Zanu-PF

Once unthinkable, the president’s wife is now a top contender for the succession. She’s been pushed vigorously into the limelight by her husband over the last few years, not that she needed much pushing. As well as her obvious affinity for the trappings of power, she is also thought to worry – with reason – about the fate of her and her children under a new regime.

She would not be a popular choice. Stories of lavish spending and poorly-judged comments – she told a joke recently, the punchline of which was that Zimbabweans never use their brains – mean that she’s perceived as out of touch. But she carries the full weight of the president behind her, and if formally anointed by him she might be difficult to displace.

Jonathan Moyo, minister of higher education, Zanu-PF

The ultimate survivor, Moyo has an uncanny ability to sniff out the prevailing political winds before anyone else – and get ahead of them. His cabinet position is less important than his unofficial designation as spin doctor-in-chief for the regime. Even Britain’s Alastair Campbell could learn a thing or two from Moyo’s tactics, which include, when necessary, rewriting editions of the state-run Herald newspaper.

Moyo is a key figure in the G40 faction of the ruling party, which has been instrumental in pushing Grace Mugabe’s leadership credentials. Most analysts suspect this is a cover for Moyo’s own ambition, or that of others within the grouping, like local government minister Saviour Kasukuwere. But outside the corridors of power, Moyo doesn’t have a natural constituency, nor any of the kind of enforcers that could help him fight his way to power.

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