If not Mugabe, then Who?

Morgan Tsvangirai, president, Movement for Democratic Change

Despite being recently diagnosed with cancer, Morgan Tsvangirai remains firmly in the political fray, and firmly in charge of his party. The opposition leader is probably the only Zimbabwean political figure who can come close to matching Mugabe’s charisma and popularity.

Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change is looking to ride on the coat-tails of the current political unrest, and are pushing hard for the international community to help impose some kind of interim transitional authority run by technocrats, ahead of a new election within a year. This would, they hope, set up Tsvangirai nicely for a tilt at the presidency (remembering, of course, that he has won an election before).

Constantine Chiwenga, commander of the Zimbabwean Armed Forces

Although very much a political appointee, Constantine Chiwenga nonetheless commands the soldiers, and the soldiers haven’t been paid for several weeks. Chiwenga could shoulder the blame for this, or he could harness the resentment in the armed forces to further his own thinly-veiled desire for the top job. If there is to be a military coup, Chiwenga will probably be leading it. He might struggle to convince army chief Philip Sibanda to co-operate, however. Sibanda is thought to be a military man through and through, and is unlikely to support a brazen attempt by an individual to seize power. But if Sibanda could be persuaded that a military solution is in the national interest, he might play along.

Strive Masiyiwa, Chairman, Econet

Last month, an influential church leader made an unusual prophecy, predicting that the next leader of Zimbabwe would come from the diaspora. Although there is plenty of speculation about who this could be, much of it has centred on the person of Strive Masiyiwa. The London-based businessman is worth hundreds of millions of dollars, making him Zimbabwe’s richest man. Masiyiwa could be a good choice to lead a transitional administration: as a money man with international links, he might be able to alleviate the country’s economic crisis.

Other names in the fray: defence minister Sydney Sekeremayi; home affairs minister Ignatious Chombo; local government minister Saviour Kasukuwere; People’s Democratic Party leader Tendai Biti; Robert Mugabe’s daughter Bona Mugabe.

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