If not Mugabe, then Who?

Emmerson Mnangagwa, vice-president, Zanu-PF

Not too long ago, in the wake of the sacking of former VP Joice Mujuru, Emmersom Mnangagwa looked like a shoo-in for the succession. Mujuru, his main enemy within the party, was gone; his promotion to the vice-presidency gave him Mugabe’s seal of approval, and he retained full control over the security services.

But how his star has fallen since then. The Crocodile, as he is known, paid the price for becoming too powerful, and has slowly been frozen out of decision-making processes. This culminated on Thursday with reports that Mnangagwa was barred from the ruling party’s Politburo meeting. If Mnangagwa is going to be the next president of Zimbabwe, he’ll probably have to do it from outside the Zanu-PF tent, which makes the task considerably more difficult.

Joice Mujuru, president, Zimbabwe People First party

Joice Mujuru is all too familiar with the difficulties of life outside the Zanu-PF bubble. She was pushed out of the party in 2014, and her new party is struggling to gain traction. Although still a prominent figure, her immediate route to ultimate power is not obvious: she must now compete with more established opposition parties, like Morgan Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change, for the non-Zanu support. If there is some kind of transitional arrangement, expect her to play a significant– albeit not the most major – role.

Pastor Evan Mawarire

With a Facebook video, Pastor Evan Mawarire started what is perhaps the most subversive public opposition campaign in Zimbabwe’s history. But he is an accidental leader, and maintains that he doesn’t hold presidential ambitions. But should #ThisFlag gather momentum – enough momentum to effect real change – he will, as the face of the movement, be expected to guide Zimbabwe through the change whether he likes it or not.

As excited as activists are about #ThisFlag, a people power revolution still seems like a remote possibility. More likely, #ThisFlag will serve as a catalyst for Zimbabwe’s more traditional power brokers to make their move.

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