If Mugabe goes…………………..

Independent candidate Margaret Dongo seems to have stolen the show and has been grooming more women to stand as independent candidates and has been using the courts to get elections nullified in her quest to ensure independent candidates contest free and fair elections. As a member of the Foundation for Democracy in Zimbabwe (Fodezi) and the Movement of Independent Candidates, she is such aformidable political force that anyone who aspires for power should take her on because she now has a very large national constituency. She is now generally regarded as a symbol of resistance. But Dongo could stand for president if she wishes and there have already been headlines in the media of "Dongo for presidency". She has the following.

Among the civic groups, the most prominent seems to be the Zimbabwe Human Rights Organisation (Zimrights) headed by David Chimhini but chaired by Reginald Matchaba-Hove. Both do not seem to have political ambitions. Matchaba-Hove's brother, Zephaniah is already in politics and replaced Mavhaire as chairman of Masvingo province so he may just be happy to pursue his career as a medical doctor and lecturer at the university's medical school.

Another lecturer, John Makumbe, has been cultivating himself as one of the leading political commentators and should not have political ambitions as he heads the anti-corruption watchdog, Transparency International Zimbabwe. He is also a member of Fodezi, and Open Society. He will have to step down from these organisations to pursue politics.

Up to last year, Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans Association leader Chenjerai Hunzvi could have been a leading contender. Though popular with the war veterans he has lost credibility with the general public because of his outbursts which most people now believe are aimed at appeasing the government. There is a feeling that either he was told to tone down if he wanted a political career or he is now afraid he is too deep into the War Victims Compensation Fund scandal that it is only his loyalty that might win him pardon.

In the business sector, most people now seem to be thinking that it is unwise to mix business with politics, especially after the collapse of controversial businessman Roger Boka whose United Merchant Bank licence was cancelled in April. With most businesses controlled by whites and Asians who would rather pull the strings from their executive desks, perhaps the only business people one can talk about are Isaac Takawira and Elisha Mushayakarara, both bank executives.

Isaac Takawira is the managing director of Barclays Bank of Zimbabwe and of late he has been receiving a lot of coverage indicating that he could be testing the waters for acceptability. One weekly paper, The Mirror, even tipped him as one of those who could be considered for the post of Finance Minister.

Elisha Mushayakara, a former permanent secretary for Finance and now managing director of Zimbabwe Financial Holdings, one of the country's largest financial institutions, openly said he was considering coming into politics now that his father (Misheck) was dead. He even warned deputy Local Government Minister Tony Gara, the MP for Mbare East, to watch out since he wanted that seat.
One of President Mugabe's biggest challenges at the moment, however, seems to be coming from the labour movement. Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) secretary-general Morgan Tsvangirai, continues to be a pain in the neck. Although ZCTU president Gibson Sibanda has also been riding on the wave of popular discontent, he can only hope to be accommodated among the new leaders of Matebeleland.

Tsvangirai on the other hand has all the qualities of a national leader. He is an eloquent speaker, just like Mugabe was during his hey-days. He has youth on his side. He is only 46. And he has the workers behind him, which is a powerful tool at the moment as workers can cause havoc at any time. Of late he has been attracting huge crowds at workers' rallies, the kind of crowds Mugabe enjoyed in the early 1980s. Tsvangirai has become such a powerful political force that though he may not be presidential material at the moment, he is definitely a kingmaker. Anyone aspiring for the country's top post has to bring him to his side.

While on paper, there are more than 20 political parties, and 10 contested the 1995 elections, there is virtually no opposition party one can talk about. The parties all seem to have sunk into oblivion soon after the elections and are likely to resurface in the year 2000 when the next elections are due. Besides, the more popular opposition parties like the Zimbabwe Unity Movement, the United Parties and ZANU-Ndonga are led by the same "old geriatrics" who cannot seriously challenge Mugabe. Edgar Tekere of ZUM is 61. Abel Muzorewa is 73 and Ndabaningi Sithole is 78.

But perhaps President Mugabe's biggest challenge at the moment is the economy. It is increasingly becoming apparent that there is no way he can turn it around. The country has been on a downslide over the past six months and all efforts to turn it around have failed. Inflation which was down to 14 percent in September was more than double that at 29 percent in May. The long-awaited International Monetary Fund stand-by facility approved on June 1, has so far not restored confidence in the economy if the key industrial index of the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange is anything to go by.

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