If Mugabe goes…………………..

From the Midlands, the strongest contender seems to be Justice Minister and party secretary for finance, Emmerson Mnangagwa. Age seems to be in his favour. He is 56. Although on paper Richard Hove, the country's planning commissioner (a cabinet post) and a member of the powerful politburo, is the Midlands boss, he has no constituency. He was just handed over the mantle by Muzenda when he left the Midlands for Masvingo.

Mnangagwa faces two problems though. He is not likely to contest Zvobgo as this would split the vote ( Karanga versus Karanga). Another big problem is that he is closely linked to the massacres in Matebeleland as he was the security minister during the disturbances. Some observers, believe he could have scored some points if he had apologised, like Zvobgo did.

Mnangagwa has already stated through the weekly Mirror that he has no presidential ambitions. But one observer succintly put it: "As we all know, guys with presidential ambitions start innuendoes in the press, then, in response to the item they 'planted' in the press declare that they are not interested in the job. And as debate increases, the tone slowly but surely turns to I am merely a humble servant of the people, and if the people's wish is that I become President, I will make myself available".

Apart from Mnangagwa there appears to be no other political heavyweights from the Midlands. The only other person one could watch is provincial governor Herbert Mahlaba who as chairman of the war veterans in the province may have a constituency of his own. He seems to be trying to win favour with Mnangagwa, as he was one of those to quickly defend him that he had no presidential ambitions.

Byron Hove once a political force was kicked out and has been on the sidelines since. But in his own league is Minister responsible for Privatisation and Indigenisation, Cephas Msipa. Regarded as the only government minister, who can afford to smile, one political commentator aptly described him as "the president Zimbabwe never had". Never dodging the media, Msipa has steadily been building his constituency in his home area of Zvishavane and in the short period he has been Minister reponsible for Indigenisation he has managed to finally come up with a government policy on indigenisation. But his ZAPU past could be a dent in his career.

In Matebeleland, the major player in any political alliances that may be formed, Dumiso Dabengwa remains the major force. He has completely overshadowed John Nkomo and Simon Khaya Moyo who was widely believed to be Joshua Nkomo's favourite. Dabengwa's only problem is that as Minister of Home Affairs he has been linked to police brutality when he quells down riots. He himself seems to have admitted that his acceptance of this portfolio was his own downfall. But he has established a strong constituency in Bulawayo as well as Matebeleland as a whole and spearheads the multi-billion dollar project to bring water to the drought stricken province.

But deputy higher education Minister Sikhanyiso Ndlovu could turn the tables. An educationist who runs a chain of distance education colleges, Ndlovu had everything going for him before he joined politics. He is therefore generally regarded as one of those in politics to serve the people and not to enrich himself. It is understood he has been giving away his salary to his constituency, Mpopoma, in Bulawayo. This could play in his favour.

But it is also worth watching the youths, mostly university students who have formed Imbovane Yamahlabezulu. Imbovane was one of King Lobengula's crack regiments so Imbovane Yamahlabezulu literally means the crack regiment of the people. The group currently led by Themba Ngwenyama, a former university student leader is worth watching. The youth are critical of the ZAPU old guard, which they accuse of not doing anything for the region. Last year the group successfully organised a boycott of celebrations to mark the 10th anniversary of the unity accord between ZANU-PF and ZAPU. They have also organised meetings at which they have discussed the massacres in Matebeleland as well as the critical land issue.

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