If Mugabe goes…………………..

Also not to be written off is the former air force commander Josiah Tungamirai. Tungamirai has youth on his side. He is only 50. He is a self-made man. A soldier, Tungamirai became a pilot when he was transferred to the air force and still managed to do a first degree and then a master's degree. And as one observer put it, he is the only person, as chairman of the youth wing, who had the guts to tell Mugabe to his face: "Your excellency the party is in a crisis and only a fool can claim otherwise." He also belongs to the powerful Zvobgo camp.

Until recently Zvobgo's main contender appeared to be party secretary for information and Minister of Industry and Commerce, Nathan Shamuyarira, but observers now say he can only be a kingmaker and not a major player himself. They say although Shamuyarira had worked his way up from a disgraced member of the Front for the Liberation of Zimbabwe (FROLIZI), an organisation most people, including himself, would like wiped out of the history books, Shamuyarira's main problem was that he allowed himself (and revelled in it) to be considered President Mugabe's closest ally and the person most likely to succeed him.

"With people saying Mugabe must go, everyone who has been closely associated with Mugabe stands a very little chance to take over," one observer noted. "People here are saying they do not want another (Julius) Nyerere-type of administration where a retired president can continue to pull the strings from his retirement home." Age too is not on Shamuyarira's side. He is 69. Besides, he is Zezuru, President Mugabe's tribe. There is general a feeling of "not another Zezuru" for president.

While there are a number of younger and promising candidates like Higher Education Minister Ignatius Chombo and Information Minister Chen Chimutengwende, they have spoiled their chances by being too close to Mugabe. The only young minister who stands a chance is deputy Mines and Environment Minister Edward Chindori-Chininga. A former diplomat he has been quietly building his own constituency. He has also quietly endeared himself with the media and has proved on a number of occasions that he can stand on his own.

Not to be written off too, is Minister of State Security, Sidney Sekeramayi and former diplomat John Tsimba. Although he controls a powerful ministry and sits in the politburo, Sekeramayi has been too quiet and he does not have the charisma and dynamism required to convince or capture a national audience. But as the country's chief "spook", he may have something up his sleeve. Tsimba on the other hand has a strong constituency. He even at one time won the provincial leadership for Mashonaland East but decided to step down to make room for another former diplomat and now Finance Minister Herbert Murerwa. With the current state of the economy, Murerwa stands no chance. Although he is not to blame for the current economic woes, everyone seems to be shifting the blame on him and being the gentleman that he is, he has done very little to defend himself.

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