Movement for Democratic Change secretary for International Affairs Sekai Holland said it was getting more difficult to control youths and others who were increasingly determined to retaliate in the face of Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front intimidation.
She was responding to a message from United States assistant secretary Lorne Craner’s message to the MDC leadership that the international community was counting on the MDC to channel Zimbabwe’s anger if President Robert Mugabe stole the election.
MDC vice-President Gibson Sibanda said the MDC leadership would do its best to restrain the party’s supporters if the MDC lost.
Tarcy Zimbiti of the Catholic Commission for Justice and Peace said if Tsvangirai won the country could plummet into a low intensity civil war with resettled farmers refusing to give up land given to them by ZANU-PF; and if Mugabe won, he expected the high density suburbs to erupt into violence.
Full cable:
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310819Z Jan 02
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5560
PAGE 01 HARARE 00284 01 OF 04 310830Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00
SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00
INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 DCP-01
NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00
ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 R-00
PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00
SWCI-00 /010W
——————5FDDFE 310831Z /38
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0842
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 000284
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PLAUMER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/12
SUBJECT: A/S CRANER MESSAGE TO ZIMBABWE GOVERNMENT: YOU
ARE PULLING THE TRIGGER OF SANCTIONS
REF: 01 HARARE 3672
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS:
1.5 (B) AND (D).
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: BETWEEN JANUARY 15 AND 18, ASSISTANT
SECRETARY LORNE CRANER AND HIS DELEGATION MET WITH A
SIPDIS
WIDE SAMPLING OF ZIMBABWE GOVERNMENT, OPPOSITION AND
CIVIL SOCIETY REPRESENTATIVES. A/S CRANER INFORMED TWO
MEMBERS OF THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ) THAT THE
ZIMBABWE LEADERSHIP IS IN THE PROCESS OF “PULLING THE
TRIGGER” OF US TRAVEL AND FINANCIAL RESTRICTIONS.
MEANWHILE, THE GOZ TRIED TO DOWNPLAY REPRESSIVE
LEGISLATION RECENTLY PASSED BY THE ZIMBABWE PARLIAMENT
AND HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES BY RULING PARTY SUPPORTERS.
OPPOSITION, CIVIL SOCIETY AND COMMERCIAL FARM
REPRESENTATIVES PAINTED A PICTURE OF A RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING HUMAN RIGHTS SITUATION ON THE GROUND. THE
GROUPS WITH WHOM CRANER MET WERE DIVIDED ON THE OUTCOME
OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SCHEDULED FOR MARCH AND ITS
AFTERMATH. END SUMMARY.
——————————————-
MESSAGE TO GOZ: YOU ARE PULLING THE TRIGGER
——————————————-
¶2. (C) ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE FOR DEMOCRACY,
HUMAN RIGHTS AND LABOR LORNE CRANER, HIS DEPUTY JOHN
SCOTT CARPENTER, S/P ADVISOR TOM CALLAHAN, AMBASSADOR
SULLIVAN AND POLOFF MET WITH SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT —
AND ZANU-PF SECRETARY OF ADMINISTRATION — EMMERSON
MNANGAGWA, WHO WAS JOINED BY CLERK OF PARLIAMENT AUSTIN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 00284 01 OF 04 310830Z
ZVOMA AND MFA U.S. DESK OFFICER RICHARD CHIBUWE. AFTER
INITIAL PLEASANTRIES, A/S CRANER POINTED OUT GROWING
U.S. CONCERN FOR THE DETERIORATING HUMAN RIGHTS
SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE AND THE RECENT PASSAGE OF
REPRESSIVE LEGISLATION BY PARLIAMENT. MNANGAGWA REPLIED
THAT VIOLENCE ON THE FARMS HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY
AND THAT THERE HAVE BEEN NO NEW FARM INVASIONS SINCE THE
MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE “CLOSED” THE A1 RESETTLEMENT
SCHEME ON JULY 31, 2001. THAT MAY BE SO, CRANER
RETORTED, BUT THE LEVEL OF POLITICALLY-MOTIVATED
VIOLENCE UNRELATED TO THE LAND ISSUE APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING. THE SPEAKER BLAMED THE MDC FOR STARTING A
FEW ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF VIOLENCE, TO WHICH ZANU-PF
YOUTHS RESPOND IN KIND. ADDITIONALLY, THE GOZ DOES NOT
HAVE “YOUTH BRIGADES” — IT SPONSORS A NATIONAL YOUTH
SERVICE IN WHICH YOUTHS ARE TRAINED AND DEPLOYED FOR
COMMUNITY SERVICE IN CLINICS AND SCHOOLS. IT IS TRUE,
MNANGAGWA STATED, THAT THE POLITICAL PARTIES HAVE THEIR
OWN YOUTH WINGS, AND IT IS THEY WHO ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE VIOLENCE. REGARDING THE RECENTLY PASSED PUBLIC
ORDER AND SECURITY ACT (POSA), MNANGAGWA PUZZLED OVER
U.S. CONCERNS, SAYING THE LEGISLATION INCORPORATES
PROVISIONS FROM BRITISH AND SOUTH AFRICAN LAWS. A/S
CRANER REPLIED THAT IT APPEARS THE POSA UTILIZES THE
HARSHEST ASPECTS OF THESE LAWS AND MADE THE POINT THAT
NO ONE WORRIES TOO MUCH ABOUT THESE PROVISIONS THERE
BECAUSE WHERE THE RULE OF LAW PREVAILS, HARSH PROVISIONS
CAN BE CHALLENGED. IN ZIMBABWE, THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY
THE CASE ANY LONGER.
¶3. (C) A/S CRANER STATED THAT WHEN A/S WALTER
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 HARARE 00284 01 OF 04 310830Z
KANSTEINER MET WITH GOZ OFFICIALS LAST MONTH (REFTEL),
HE SAID GOZ ACTIONS WOULD DETERMINE WHETHER THE U.S.
ADMINISTRATION ENACTS TRAVEL AND FINANCIAL RESTRICTIONS
ON ZIMBABWEAN LEADERS AS STIPULATED IN THE ZIMBABWE
DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA). SINCE
THEN, THE USG HAS SEEN ONLY A DETERIORATION IN THE
SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE; IN FACT, THE GOZ IS “PULLING THE
TRIGGER” OF U.S. RESTRICTIONS THROUGH ITS FAILURE TO
STEM POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF DRACONIAN
LEGISLATION. MNANGAGWA REPLIED THAT THERE IS A GROWING
ANTI-U.S. FEELING IN THE GOZ; THE ZDERA IS A U.S. QUID
PRO QUO FOR BRITAIN’S SUPPORT IN THE WAR AGAINST
TERRORISM; AND THE GOZ CAN ONLY ACT IN THE INTERESTS OF
THE ZIMBABWEAN PEOPLE, NOT THOSE OF THE U.S. THE
SPEAKER MAINTAINED THAT THE OLD LAW AND ORDER
MAINTENANCE ACT, WHICH THE POSA REPLACED, PROVIDED FOR
THE DEATH PENALTY FOR NINE OFFENSES — THE POSA DOES FOR
ONLY ONE, AND THAT THERE ARE NO POLITICAL PRISONERS IN
ZIMBABWE, UNLIKE MANY OTHER COUNTRIES.
¶4. (C) THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS’ UNDER SECRETARY
FOR EUROPE AND AMERICAS GEORGE VENGESA TOLD A/S CRANER
THAT ZIMBABWE IS “ON TRACK” FOR A FREE AND FAIR
ELECTION, A MESSAGE IT HAS BEEN DELIVERING TO ITS SADC
PARTNERS. A/S CRANER REMARKED THAT DESPITE A HISTORY OF
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5562
PAGE 01 HARARE 00284 02 OF 04 310831Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00
SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00
INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 DCP-01
NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00
ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 R-00
PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00
SWCI-00 /010W
——————5FDE10 310831Z /38
P 310819Z JAN 02
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0843
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HARARE 000284
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PLAUMER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/12
SUBJECT: A/S CRANER MESSAGE TO ZIMBABWE GOVERNMENT: YOU
ARE PULLING THE TRIGGER OF SANCTIONS
BUMPY RELATIONS, THE U.S. DOES CARE ABOUT ZIMBABWE AND
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 00284 02 OF 04 310831Z
THAT IT IS NOT IN LEAGUE WITH THE BRITISH TO UNDERMINE
THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER, WE HAVE TO SAY THE PRACTICES IN
ZIMBABWE TO DATE DO NOT FIT WITH THE DEMOCRATIC TRENDS
OF THE REGION. BECOMING DEFENSIVE, VENGESA STATED “HOW
CAN YOU SAY THAT WHEN 57 OPPOSITION MPS WERE ELECTED IN
2000?” THE MFA OFFICIAL THEN DEMANDED TO KNOW WHY
ZIMBABWE WAS BEING SINGLED OUT FOR SANCTIONS WHEN OTHER
COUNTRIES HAVE SIMILAR PROBLEMS. “WHAT OTHER AFRICAN
COUNTRIES HAVE BEEN SLAPPED WITH SANCTIONS IN THIS
MANNER?” A/S CRANER RESPONDED THAT SOUTH AFRICA IN THE
1980S AND MORE RECENTLY SUDAN AND NIGERIA HAVE BEEN HIT
WITH MORE DRACONIAN SANCTIONS FOR SERIOUS HUMAN RIGHTS
ABUSES. ZIMBABWE IS GETTING OFF RELATIVELY EASILY AS
THE ZDERA PROVIDES FOR MORE INCENTIVES THAN
RESTRICTIONS. A/S CRANER ALSO DELIVERED THE USG MESSAGE
TO VENGESA, AS HE DID TO MNANGAGWA, THAT THE GOZ IS
“SQUEEZING THE TRIGGER” OF SANCTIONS. VENGESA GLUMLY
STATED THAT HE WOULD PASS ON THE MESSAGE TO MORE SENIOR
GOZ OFFICIALS.
—————
IMPACT OF ZDERA
—————
¶5. (C) A NUMBER OF CIVIL SOCIETY AND OPPOSITION
REPRESENTATIVES WITH WHOM THE CRANER DELEGATION MET
COMMENTED ON THE ZDERA. CHAIRMAN REGINALD MATCHABA-HOVE
AND NATIONAL COORDINATOR RINDAI CHIPFUNDE OF THE
ZIMBABWE ELECTION SUPPORT NETWORK (ZESN), AN UMBRELLA
ORGANIZATION OF ZIMBABWE NGOS, OPINED THAT THE ZDERA AND
THREAT OF EU SANCTIONS HAD SOMEWHAT SOFTENED THE GOZ’S
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 00284 02 OF 04 310831Z
HARSH ATTITUDE TOWARD THE WEST. IN THEIR OPINION, THE
U.S. RESPONSE SHOULD BE ROBUST, AND AN INCREMENTAL
APPLICATION OF SANCTIONS ON LEADERS WOULD BE MOST
EFFECTIVE. THE ZESN CHIEFS ALSO NOTED THAT SOME
ZIMBABWEANS STILL BELIEVE THAT THE ZDERA IMPOSES
ECONOMIC SANCTIONS ON ZIMBABWE; MORE PUBLIC STATEMENTS
OR EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON THE LAW WOULD HELP STEM THE
CONFUSION. MARY NDLOVU, A TRUSTEE OF THE LEGAL
RESOURCES FOUNDATION NGO, WAS MORE POINTED AND SAID
ZIMBABWEANS WANT TO SEE THEIR LEADERS PUNISHED. “WHY IS
IT TAKING SO LONG TO ENACT?” SHE ASKED RHETORICALLY.
PAUL TEMBA-NYATHI, THE MDC’S ELECTIONS DIRECTOR,
DIFFERED BY SAYING ANY ZDERA RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE
IMPOSED IMMEDIATELY TO LET THE GOZ KNOW THAT THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY FINDS ITS ACTIONS UNACCEPTABLE.
“WOULD THIS NOT LEAD TO A STATE OF EMERGENCY BEFORE THE
ELECTION?” THE AMBASSADOR ASKED. NO, A DE FACTO STATE
OF EMERGENCY ALREADY EXISTS, TEMBA-NYATHI OPINED.
—————————————-
CATALOGUE OF HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES GROWING
—————————————-
¶6. (C) THE CRANER DELEGATION, ACCOMPANIED BY AMBASSADOR
SULLIVAN AND POLOFF, TRAVELED ABOUT 100 KM SOUTHEAST OF
HARARE TO CHIPESA FARM, WHICH IS OWNED BY MDC ACTIVISTS
IAN AND KERRY KAY. GATHERED AT THE FARM WERE TWO OTHER
COMMERCIAL FARMERS, FIVE FARM WORKERS, AND A RESETTLED
BLACK FARMER. THE FARM WORKERS MATTER-OF-FACTLY
DESCRIBED THE NIGHTLY BEATINGS THEY RECEIVE WITH WHIPS
AND CHAINS BY ZANU-PF YOUTHS, THE BURNING DOWN OF THEIR
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 HARARE 00284 02 OF 04 310831Z
HOMES, AND THE CONSTANT HARASSMENT AND DEATH THREATS.
ONE WORKER HAD PHOTOGRAPHS OF HIS BACK WHERE HE HAD BEEN
STRUCK FOUR TIMES WITH AN AX. THEIR CHILDREN DON’T GO
TO SCHOOL AND OTHER CO-WORKERS ARE SO FEARFUL THAT THEY
SLEEP IN THE BUSH FOR WEEKS AT A TIME. ALL THE WHILE
THEY ARE TOLD TO STOP WORKING FOR THE KAYS AND TO VOTE
FOR ZANU-PF. MOST OF THE ZANU-PF YOUTH ARE BROUGHT IN
FROM HARARE OR FAR-AWAY COMMUNAL FARMS. THEY RECENTLY
COLLECTED 10 OLDER CHILDREN FROM THE FARM FOR TRAINING
AT THE BORDER GEZI NATIONAL YOUTH SERVICE TRAINING
CENTER NEAR MOUNT DARWIN. THE KAYS STATED THAT THE
INTIMIDATION IS DESIGNED BY ZANU-PF TO FORCE THEIR
WORKERS TO LEAVE SO THAT THEIR FARM GOES OUT OF BUSINESS
AND THEY CAN NO LONGER SUPPORT THE MDC. THE GOZ SEES
THEM AS A THREAT.
¶7. (C) THE RESETTLED BLACK FARMER LAID BARE THE GOZ’S
CLAIMS THAT ITS LAND RESETTLEMENT SCHEME IS FOR THE
BENEFIT OF “THE PEOPLE.” HE STATED THAT HE HAS LIVED
AND WORKED ON NEARBY LAND MADE AVAILABLE TO HIM BY THE
GOZ IN 1984. HE HAD DONE WELL RAISING MAIZE BY APPLYING
HIMSELF AND HIS SKILLS. HOWEVER, THIS YEAR, ZANU-PF
SUPPORTERS BURNED ALL HIS CROPS TO “MAKE AN EXAMPLE” OUT
OF HIM FOR HIS VILLAGE. APPARENTLY HIS TRADING TIES
WITH THE KAYS WERE GROUNDS FOR BEING TARGETED. TARCY
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5567
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ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00
SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00
INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 DCP-01
NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00
ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 R-00
PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00
SWCI-00 /010W
——————5FDE28 310831Z /38
P 310819Z JAN 02
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0844
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 HARARE 000284
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PLAUMER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/12
SUBJECT: A/S CRANER MESSAGE TO ZIMBABWE GOVERNMENT: YOU
ARE PULLING THE TRIGGER OF SANCTIONS
ZIMBITI, ACTING DIRECTOR OF THE CATHOLIC COMMISSION FOR
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 00284 03 OF 04 310831Z
JUSTICE AND PEACE (CCJP), IN A SEPARATE MEETING, SAID
ZANU-PF IS GOING AS FAR AS BEATING UP ITS OWN SUPPORTERS
SO IT CAN SAY THE MDC IS PERPETRATING VIOLENCE.
¶8. (C) SEVERAL INTERLOCUTORS, INCLUDING HIGH COURT
JUSTICE FERGUS BLACKIE, TOLD THE CRANER DELEGATION THAT
THE GOZ INVESTIGATION AND PROSECUTION OF POLITICAL
VIOLENCE CASES HAS BEEN HIGHLY SELECTIVE. MANY TIMES
THE HIGH COURT HAS POINTED OUT TO THE MINISTRY OF
JUSTICE, WHICH CONDUCTS PROSECUTIONS, WHO SHOULD BE
ARRESTED AND PROSECUTED FOR POLITICALLY-MOTIVATED
CRIMES. WHENEVER ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS ARE INVOLVED,
USUALLY NOTHING IS DONE; HOWEVER, IF SOMEONE FROM THE
MDC CAN BE BLAMED, THOSE CASES ARE MOVED TO THE FRONT OF
THE COURT DOCKET, BLACKIE AND JUSTICE MOHAMED ALI ADAM
REMARKED.
——————————————
REPRESSIVE LEGISLATION IS PART OF THE PLAN
——————————————
¶9. (C) A COMMON TOPIC IN A/S CRANER’S MEETINGS WAS THE
RECENTLY PASSED PUBLIC ORDER AND SECURITY ACT (POSA) AND
GENERAL LAWS AMENDMENTS ACT, WHICH ALTERED THE ELECTORAL
ACT IN ZANU-PF’S FAVOR. THE ZESN REPRESENTATIVES SAID
THE ELECTORAL ACT, AS AMENDED, REQUIRES ALL VOTER
EDUCATION TO BE CARRIED OUT BY THE ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY
COMMISSION (ESC). IT ALSO GIVES THE REGISTRAR-GENERAL,
WHO IS REGARDED AS A ZANU-PF SYMPATHIZER, MORE CONTROL
OVER THE ELECTORAL PROCESS AND COULD CREATE MORE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR VOTE-RIGGING. ZESN SAID IT IS
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 00284 03 OF 04 310831Z
IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT THAT THE AMENDMENTS DO NOT “BAN
THE MDC” OR “BAN NGOS” AS SOME PRESS REPORTS WOULD HAVE
IT, BUT THEY DO PLACE GREATER RESTRICTIONS ON THE
ACTIVITIES OF THE OPPOSITION AND CIVIL SOCIETY. TARCY
ZIMBITI OF THE CCJP SAID THAT BECAUSE OF THE VOTER
EDUCATION RESTRICTIONS, HIS ORGANIZATION IS NOW
DESCRIBING ITS EDUCATIONAL ACTIVITIES AS “SOCIAL
TEACHINGS OF THE CHURCH” AS AN (UNTESTED) WAY AROUND THE
NEW LAW. MATCHABA-HOVE OF ZESN REMARKED THAT THE
CHURCHES ARE NOW THE ONLY PRACTICAL VEHICLE FOR VOTER
EDUCATION IN ZIMBABWE SINCE 75 PERCENT OF ZIMBABWEANS
ARE CHURCH-GOING CHRISTIANS.
¶10. (C) THE POSA IS A MATTER OF CONCERN FOR ZESN
MEMBERS IN THE WAY IT COULD BE USED TO LIMIT CAMPAIGNING
FOR POLITICAL PARTIES AND FOR GENERAL VOTER EDUCATION.
PEARSON NHERERE, A PROMINENT ATTORNEY AND TRUSTEE OF THE
LEGAL RESOURCES FOUNDATION (LRF), STATED THAT THE POSA
“SEVERELY RESTRICTS PUBLIC GATHERINGS, WHETHER THEY BE
ON THE STREET OR IN A BUILDING.” ASKED BY PDAS
CARPENTER WHY ZANU-PF HAD SO FAR FAILED TO PASS THE
DRACONIAN ACCESS TO INFORMATION BILL AND LABOR RELATIONS
AMENDMENT BILL, NHERERE STATED THAT THOSE BILLS ARE PART
OF ZANU-PF’S LONG-TERM STRATEGY FOR STAYING IN POWER AND
PROVIDE LITTLE ADDED BENEFIT FOR THIS ELECTION. THEY
CONTAIN PROVISIONS THAT WOULD NOT BRING THEM INTO EFFECT
UNTIL THREE MONTHS AFTER THEIR PASSAGE; THE ELECTION IS
ALREADY LESS THAN SIX WEEKS AWAY. APOLITICAL
ORGANIZATIONS LIKE THE NATIONAL AIDS COUNCIL ARE
CANCELING OUTREACH PROGRAMS OUT OF FEAR OF BEING
PROSECUTED UNDER THE NEWLY PASSED POSA, ACCORDING TO
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 HARARE 00284 03 OF 04 310831Z
MARY NDLOVU OF LRF.
————
THE ELECTION
————
¶11. (C) IN MEETING WITH ESC CHAIRMAN SOBUSA GULA-
NDEBELE (A GOZ APPOINTEE), A/S CRANER NOTED THAT THE
STANDARD FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS IS A GLOBAL ONE —
NOT JUST AN AMERICAN OR BRITISH ONE — AND ASKED FOR THE
CHAIRMAN’S ASSESSMENT OF WHERE THE ESC STANDS ON
PREPARING FOR THE MARCH 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
GULA-NDEBELE IMPLIED THAT THE ESC WAS BEHIND SCHEDULE IN
ITS PREPARATIONS AND IT WOULD BE A “RUSH” JOB TO FIND
AND TRAIN ALL THE ELECTION MONITORS IT NEEDS; BUT HE
ALSO NOTED THAT THE REGISTRAR-GENERAL IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
CONDUCTING THE ELECTION, WHEREAS THE ESC MERELY
SUPERVISES THEM. IN HIS ONLY MILD CRITICISM OF THE GOZ,
THE CHAIRMAN COMPLAINED THAT THE ESC HAS NOT BEEN GIVEN
ENOUGH RESOURCES TO DO ITS JOB. IT WOULD NEED AN
ADDITIONAL ZIM$500 MILLION (US$1.72 MILLION) TO CARRY
OUT ITS MISSION PROPERLY, HE STATED.
¶12. (C) IN RESPONDING TO USG CONCERNS, GULA-NDEBELE
STATED THAT IT WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR ANY ONE TO
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5569
PAGE 01 HARARE 00284 04 OF 04 310832Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00
SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00
INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 DCP-01
NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00
ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 R-00
PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00
SWCI-00 /010W
——————5FDE35 310832Z /38
P 310819Z JAN 02
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0845
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 HARARE 000284
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PLAUMER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/12
SUBJECT: A/S CRANER MESSAGE TO ZIMBABWE GOVERNMENT: YOU
ARE PULLING THE TRIGGER OF SANCTIONS
TAMPER WITH BALLOT BOXES AFTER ELECTION POLLING — PARTY
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 00284 04 OF 04 310832Z
AGENTS AND ESC MONITORS WOULD BE WITH THE BOXES AT ALL
TIMES UNTIL THE VOTES ARE COUNTED. THE BOXES ARE
GUARDED OVERNIGHT AFTER THE FIRST DAY OF VOTING, AND
THEY ARE NOT MOVED TO THE COUNTING CENTERS UNTIL AFTER
THE POLLING STATIONS ARE CLOSED ON THE SECOND DAY.
ARMED POLICE, ACCOMPANIED BY THE PARTY AGENTS AND
MONITORS, TAKE THE BOXES TO THE COUNTING CENTERS, WHERE
THE VOTES ARE COUNTED, UNCLEARLY MARKED BALLOTS
EXAMINED, AND SPOILED BALLOTS TABULATED. THE CHAIRMAN
COMMENTED THAT THE DECEMBER CHEGUTU MAYORAL ELECTION IN
WHICH THE MDC CANDIDATE WON SHOWED THAT THERE IS NO VOTE
MANIPULATION. THE AMBASSADOR NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT A
HIGH NUMBER OF SPOILED BALLOTS COULD SKEW THE RESULTS,
TO WHICH GULA-NDEBELE REPLIED THAT THE NUMBER IS
NORMALLY VERY LOW. RESPONDING TO CONCERNS THAT THE
NUMBER OF POLLING STATIONS HAS DECREASED IN RECENT
ELECTIONS (THEREBY MAKING VOTER PARTICIPATION MORE
DIFFICULT), GULA-NDEBELE CLAIMED THAT THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASE IN POLLING STATIONS IN RURAL AREAS, AND THAT
THE MINISTRY OF JUSTICE SAYS THERE SHOULD BE MORE THERE.
¶13. (C) ZESN’S NATIONAL COORDINATOR STATED THAT BY
HOLDING THE HARARE MAYORAL ELECTION AT THE SAME TIME AS
THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, THE GOZ INTENDS TO DRAW MDC
MONITORS AWAY FROM ZANU-PF STRONGHOLDS IN THE RURAL
AREAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME CONFUSION OVER WHICH
BALLOT GOES IN WHICH BOX, WHICH COULD BENEFIT ZANU-PF.
THE FARM WORKERS AT CHIPESA FARM SAID THAT DESPITE THE
INTENSE INTIMIDATION IN RURAL AREAS, PEOPLE ARE NOT
AFRAID TO VOTE, NOR DO THEY INTEND TO VOTE FOR ZANU-PF.
MDC VICE-PRESIDENT GIBSON SIBANDA, IN A SEPARATE
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 00284 04 OF 04 310832Z
MEETING, ECHOED THIS REFRAIN, SAYING PEOPLE ARE
DETERMINED TO VOTE AND THAT THEY HAVE ALREADY MADE UP
THEIR MINDS TO VOTE FOR MDC. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NO
HOPE OF A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION, IT IS NOT EVEN AN
OPTION UNDER CONSIDERATION BY THE MDC TO BOYCOTT THE
ELECTION, SIBANDA ADDED.
———————————————
NO CONSENSUS ON ELECTION OUTCOME OR AFTERMATH
———————————————
¶14. (C) WHEN ASKED ABOUT WHO IS LIKELY TO WIN THE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, MOST OF THE DELEGATION’S
INTERLOCUTORS WERE DIVIDED. MDC ELECTIONS DIRECTOR
TEMBA-NYATHI STATED THAT HE HAD TO REMAIN OPTIMISTIC
THAT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI WOULD PREVAIL DESPITE THE
TREMENDOUS OBSTACLES. LOCALLY WELL-KNOWN POLITICAL
COMMENTATORS, INCLUDING CRISIS IN ZIMBABWE CHAIRMAN
BRIAN RAFTOPOLOUS, TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL CHAIRMAN
JOHN MAKUMBE, TRANSPARENCY DIRECTOR ANDREW NONGOGO, AND
ZIMBABWE LIBERATORS PLATFORM CHAIRMAN WILFRED MHANDA,
COULD NOT AGREE ON WHO THE ULTIMATE WINNER WOULD BE.
MHANDA WAS ADAMANT THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE WOULD DO
ABSOLUTELY ANYTHING TO WIN THE ELECTION REGARDLESS OF
THE CONSEQUENCES, WHEREAS NONGOGO ARGUED THAT MUGABE
STILL VALUES THE LEGITIMACY THAT AN ELECTION CONVEYS AND
WOULD NOT BLATANTLY RIG THE VOTE, EVEN IF IT MEANT
RISKING A LOSS.
¶15. (C) ON THE ELECTION AFTERMATH, A SINGLE SCENARIO
DID NOT EMERGE, BUT VIOLENCE WAS THE MOST COMMON
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INGREDIENT. A/S CRANER RELAYED TO THE MDC LEADERSHIP
THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WAS COUNTING ON THE MDC
TO CHANNEL ZIMBABWEANS’ ANGER IF THE ELECTION WERE
STOLEN. SEKAI HOLLAND, THE MDC’S INTERNATIONAL
RELATIONS SECRETARY, COMMENTED THAT IT IS GETTING MORE
DIFFICULT TO CONTROL YOUTHS AND OTHERS WHO ARE
INCREASINGLY DETERMINED TO RETALIATE IN THE FACE OF
ZANU-PF’S INTIMIDATION. SIBANDA SAID THE MDC LEADERSHIP
WOULD DO ITS BEST TO RESTRAIN THE PARTY’S SUPPORTERS,
BUT HE FULLY EXPECTS THE MDC YOUTH TO DEFY THE
LEADERSHIP’S CALLS FOR RESTRAINT IF THE MDC LOSES.
TARCY ZIMBITI OF THE CCJP SAID IF TSVANGIRAI WINS, THE
COUNTRY COULD PLUMMET INTO A LOW-INTENSITY CIVIL WAR
WHERE RESETTLED FARMERS REFUSE TO GIVE UP LAND GIVEN TO
THEM BY ZANU-PF; ALTERNATIVELY, IF MUGABE WINS, HE
EXPECTS THE HIGH-DENSITY SUBURBS TO ERUPT IN VIOLENCE.
¶16. (U) A/S LORNE CRANER AND PDAS SCOTT CARPENTER
CLEARED THIS MESSAGE.
SULLIVAN
CONFIDENTIAL
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