The Central Intelligence Organisation is likely to determine President Robert Mugabe’s successor and history has already proved this, a United States-based intelligence firm said almost four years ago.
At the time, the main contenders were Vice-President Joice Mujuru whose husband, Solomon, had died in a mysterious fire two months before, and Emmerson Mnangagwa who was Defence Minister.
Mnangagwa quashed reports that he was a presidential aspirant saying there were more senior people than him as he was number 12 in the party.
But the report, compiled by a South African private security contractor for United States intelligence firm Stratfor, and leaked through Wikileaks’s GI files, said there were clear signs that Mnangagwa was already trying to clean up his image and engaging the Western press.
The interview about Mnangagwa being number 12 was carried by the Sunday Telegraph in June 2011. He was asked by Colin Freeman: “Why is it that so many Zimbabweans say bad things about you? That you are a secret power, more feared than Mr Mugabe himself?”
Mnangagwa responded: “You are the first person to ask me these kind of questions, but I don’t really know where any of this kind of stuff comes from at all. I am number 12 in the party, not number two, and am just a very humble person.”
The Stratfor report, dated 3 October 2011 stated: “We also see clear maneuvering from Mnangagwa in the following:
- The 2005 MDC Split, when Colonel Dyck approached Tsvangerai with offers that was believed by many to be true to become the next Chief of Staff in of the Zimbabwean National Army.
- The sinister death of General Solomon Mujuru the former Chief of the Zimbabwean Army and the only person that could have been a real opposition for Mnangagwa.
- There have been reports of financial irregularities with Tsvangerai and still bitterness when he decided to enter the Government of National Unity as Prime Minister.”
It went on to add: “Whether we like it or not Emerson Mnangagwa has much more acumen, presence and money to be more effective than Tsvangerai and he also has much larger support from the British Intelligence Community that has close ties with big business interests.”
Mnangagwa was for years considered Mugabe’s heir apparent, and was even referred to as “Son of God”- the god being Mugabe- but he felt out with the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front leader in 2004 after the abortive Tsholotsho Declaration in which a group of senior ZANU-PF officials opposed the appointment of Joice Mujuru as Mugabe’s deputy preferring Mnangagwa instead.
Mnangagwa, who was Speaker of Parliament, was demoted to Minister of Rural Housing in 2005 but he weaved his way back after the 2006 party conference at Goromonzi where his main rival Solomon Mujuru refused to endorse Mugabe as the presidential candidate for the next elections.
Mujuru called for an extra-ordinary congress in 2007 but was thwarted by Mnangagwa who made sure Mugabe was endorsed as the presidential candidate for the 2008 elections.
Though Mnangagwa continued to occupy the lowly post of Rural Housing Minister he was back in his role as “Son of God” and represented Zimbabwe at the Southern African Development Community summit in Lusaka which was called to resolve the election impasse in Zimbabwe after Mugabe had been beaten by Movement for Democratic Change leader Morgan Tsvangirai but refused to step down insisting that Tsvangirai had not won enough votes for an outright victory.
The country had two vice-presidents at the time, Joice Mujuru and John Nkomo.
Mnangagwa’s star was on the rise and the United States embassy in Harare at one time said he had assumed virtual presidency and was running the country.
The death of Mujuru in August 2011 cleared the deck. Although reports said Mnangagwa had been outmaneuvered by Joice Mujuru who controlled almost all the country’s 10 political provinces, Mnangagwa showed his clout when he forced Mujuru by the wayside in the run-up to the 2014 party congress.
Mujuru seemed to have the presidency in the bag but was pushed aside with Mnangagwa and virtually unknown Phelekezela Mphoko rising to become the country’s vice-presidents before Mujuru and her key supporters were expelled from the party, something that was unthinkable because of the role she had played in the liberation struggle.
Even the private media which has been propping her as Mugabe’s biggest challenge now says fear has paralysed her faction.
Last month Stratfor said the succession issue had now been resolved. Mnangagwa, had for all intends and purposes, assumed governance of Zimbabwe.
“Competition over succession has tinted Zimbabwean politics for many years, but Mnangagwa has undertaken a larger role in ruling the country than has any preceding vice president or government leader: Former Vice President Joice Mujuru never had the amount of influence over state affairs that her successor now has. Mnangagwa, who also serves as minister of justice and who was formerly a minister of defense and chief of the country's intelligence organization, has experience and knowledge of Zimbabwe's security and economic affairs. He is also well versed in the politics of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front party,” it said.
But in Zimbabwe, things are so unpredictable. Anything can happen. But it will be very difficult for Mnangagwa to let this chance slip.
Full Stratfor GI cable:
[alpha] INSIGHT — ZIMBABWE — thoughts on CIO determining Mugabe succession – ZA086
Released on 2013-02-26 00:00 GMT
Date 2011-10-03 23:58:26
From [email protected]
ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor source
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: is a South African private security contractor, works mostly in East Africa
PUBLICATION: if useful
SOURCE RELIABILITY: C
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 5
SPECIAL HANDLING: none
SOURCE HANDLER: Mark
[CIO is the Zimbabwean intel agency]
Why the Central Intelligence Organization (CIO) will determine the next Zimbabwean ruler.
There are several historical issues that we have to look at in trying to see what the future holds for Zimbabwe and for that we need to look at some history before we get to a post Mugabe Zimbabwe.
First let us enter the Central Intelligence Organization (CIO) for short and see what role it had in shaping post independence Zimbabwe. The CIO's first Chief, Ken Flower was an immensely influential man in the International Intelligence Community and he always maintained very close ties with MI6, most notably Sir Dick Franks and later with Alastair Morrison OBE & MC who was the 2IC for the 22nd SAS Regiment that is very close to MI6. As intelligence Chief Flower served Britain, Rhodesia and Zimbabwe without pause making him the world's first Intelligence Chief to serve 3 completely different masters. After serving his full term he went peacefully on pension with excellent relations with Britain, Zimbabwe and the Socialist block remaining remaining intact.
His successor, Danny Stannard also served out his full tenure before going on pension in 1996. Danny's brother Richard served as the Chief of the Directorate of Military Intelligence for the Zimbabwean Army under Mugabe and his cousin also Richard was directly involved in the hijacking of an Air India Aircraft in the Seychelles by South African Hired mercenaries in 1981.
It has been alleged beyond a reasonable doubt that Danny Facilitated Mossad into Zimbabwe to start an operation to facilitate the transfer of Plutonium from the Congo through Zimbabwe. Unfortunately Mossad also found out that the Stannard's were facilitating sales to North Korea, Syria and Iran through the two Richards. His brother Richard continued to cement close ties with a former Rhodesian Army Colonel Lionel Dyck who is a business partner of Emerson Mnangagwa. Colonel Dyck started a lucrative Mine Clearing Company called Minetech which today is owned by Exploration Logistics whose Chairman is Alastair Morrison, thus cementing the ties between big business in Zimbabwe, British Intelligence and Organized Crime as the core value that the CIO rendered the Government of Britain, Smith and Zimbabwe was shadowy business deals, sanctions busting and gunrunning.
This created a world class Intelligence outfit with the sole aim of doing illegal deals and today Mnangagwa is the Minister of Defense, the de facto Chief of the CIO and the only contender to run for President and he has made no secret of his ambitions.
This is why we see that Mnangagwa is engaging the Western press, trying to get rid of the image and nickname of "Crocodile" and generally letting up in public on his hard line stance. Yet in Zimbabwe no one is as feared as the Crocodile. We also see clear maneuvering from Mnangagwa in the following:
O/ The 2005 MDC Split, when Colonel Dyck approached Tsvangerai with offers that was believed by many to be true to become the next Chief of Staff in of the Zimbabwean National Army.
O/ The sinister death of General Solomon Mujuru the former Chief of the Zimbabwean Army and the only person that could have been a real opposition for Mnangagwa.
O/ There have been reports of financial irregularities with Tsvangerai and still bitterness when he decided to enter the Government of National Unity as Prime Minister.
We will therefore see a concentrated effort by ZANU (PF) to become more "acceptable" and is why to a degree Tsvangarai will be tolerated in the chained capacity that he is in, but not as the President, Wiki Leaks "leakers" will not be punished and gentle measures are looked at to remove Mugabe from office before he dies which seems with the latest information to be quite serious.
Upon closer inspection of the MDC's actual capacity to organize support we see that the party has a very good capacity to drum up support, but no capacity to organize people in the rural areas where the inherent ZANU -PF strengths lie. The MDC has no support within the Security Structures and also very little capacity to actually govern a country.
Whether we like it or not Emerson Mnangagwa has much more acumen, presence and money to be more effective than Tsvangerai and he also has much larger support from the British Intelligence Community that has close ties with big business interests.