South African President Thabo Mbeki was still frantically working on a political solution for Zimbabwe two months before the harmonised elections of 2008 and gave the negotiating parties three options.
According to Movement for Democratic Change treasurer Roy Bennett and Idasa analyst Sydney Masamvu Mbeki had presented the MDC and the Zimbabwe African National Union- Patriotic Front three options to break the deadlock:
- Hold a referendum on a new constitution in February, followed by “free and fair” elections in March;
- Hold a referendum on a constitution first, and delay the elections to a later date (likely June/July); or
- Pass an interim constitution in parliament (without a referendum), delay elections (likely June/July), then hold a constitutional referendum.
Bennett and Masamvu said if Mugabe did not agree to one of these three options, Mbeki would report to SADC that he was not cooperating with the facilitation.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 08PRETORIA100, MBEKI TO VISIT ZIMBABWE IN EFFORT TO CONCLUDE SADC
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|
Reference ID |
Created |
Released |
Classification |
Origin |
VZCZCXRO3861
RR RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSA #0100 0161449
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 161449Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3189
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHDL/AMEMBASSY DUBLIN 0090
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 5231
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 9501
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 000100
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR AF/S
HARARE FOR G. WARREN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2018
SUBJECT: MBEKI TO VISIT ZIMBABWE IN EFFORT TO CONCLUDE SADC
TALKS
REF: HARARE 0016
Classified By: Ambassador Eric M. Bost. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).
¶1. (C) South African President Thabo Mbeki will visit
Zimbabwe January 17-18 in an effort to conclude the SADC
political facilitation, according to Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC) Treasurer Roy Bennett and U.K. diplomats. Mbeki
met with the key negotiators for the MDC and ZANU-PF in
Pretoria o/a January 14-15, and told them the negotiation
deadlock was “unacceptable.” (NOTE: Per reftel, the parties
are reportedly deadlocked over the timing of the elections
and implementation of a constitution. END NOTE.)
¶2. (C) According to Bennett and IDASA analyst Sydney Masamvu
(who spoke with MDC SecGen Tendai Biti), Mbeki presented the
MDC and ZANU-PF with three options to break the deadlock:
— Hold a referendum on a new constitution in February,
followed by “free and fair” elections in March;
— Hold a referendum on a constitution first, and delay the
elections to a later date (likely June/July); or
— Pass an interim constitution in parliament (without a
referendum), delay elections (likely June/July), then hold a
constitutional referendum.
Bennett noted that the MDC would prefer the second option,
whereas ZANU-PF would likely favor the first. However,
ZANU-PF would take a significant risk with the first option,
since the constitutional referendum could build momentum for
the MDC and help level the playing field for the elections
(although time is short). Masamvu said the first option was
meant to force Mugabe’s hand if he insisted on a March
election date.
¶3. (C) If Mugabe does not agree to one of these three
options, Mbeki would report to SADC that he is not
cooperating with the facilitation, according to Bennett and
Masamvu.
¶4. (U) Separately, Irish PM Ahern met with President Mbeki in
Pretoria on January 15. Ahern said in a press conference on
the 15th, which Mbeki did not attend, that South Africa was
“engaged in some of the final aspects” of the SADC
negotiations. Mbeki “is working very hard on this and is
hopeful that he will resolve some of the remaining
obstacles,” Ahern claimed.
¶5. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Harare.
BOST
(19 VIEWS)
