Movement for Democratic Change leader Morgan Tsvangirai told a visiting United States delegation in December 2002 that President Robert Mugabe would not last another six months.
Just over a decade down the line, they are in government together and Mugabe who is now 89 says he will contest the next elections.
“How can a government function” Tsvangirai asked, “with no foreign exchange, with a worthless currency, and with an inflation rate predicted to rise soon to 500 percent?”
MDC secretary general at the time Welshman Ncube who now leads after faction of the MDC was not optimistic, declaring that those with influence in ZANU-PF were hardliners who were convinced they could run the country “through propaganda”.
“Those in control,” he said, “are simply not interested in dialogue.”
He said that ZANU-PF’s “retribution machine” had kept party moderates toeing the party line.
“ZANU-PF MP’s often agree in private with their colleagues across the aisle, but they are not willing to express that agreement in public because they are afraid of what their own party might do to them.”
Full cable:
Viewing cable 02HARARE2805, MDC UNHAPPINESS WITH SOUTH AFRICA GROWS
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002805
SIPDIS
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR CNEARY
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2012
SUBJECT: MDC UNHAPPINESS WITH SOUTH AFRICA GROWS
Classified By: political section chief Matt Harrington. Reasons: 1.5 (
B) and (D).
Summary
——–
¶1. (C) Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) President
Morgan Tsvangirai told a visiting staffdel that Zimbabwe
needed a 12-18 month transitional period during which
critical national issues must be resolved to lay the
foundation for a new election and long-term political
stability. He predicted that the Mugabe regime would not be
able to last another six months, given the country’s dramatic
economic decline, but MDC Secretary-General Welshman Ncube
lamented that those in control in ZANU-PF are unwilling to
engage in dialogue on the way forward, no matter how bad the
economy gets. Ncube implied that the MDC would try to
reverse the damage to commercial agriculture done by the fast
track resettlement program, but said it was politically
unviable to make such a promise publicly. Tsvangirai thought
the international community had done an effective job of
isolating the Mugabe regime, but he urged Kofi Annan and
South African President Thabo Mbeki to become more engaged in
the search for a solution. Ncube was strongly critical of
South Africa, which he said was working actively to undermine
the prospects for democracy in Zimbabwe. End Summary.
Transitional government the way forward?
—————————————-
¶2. (C) On December 11, members of the Flynn/Chaka staffdel,
joined by the Ambassador and polchief, lunched with MDC
President Morgan Tsvangirai, MDC Secretary-General Welshman
Ncube, and party spokesman Paul Themba-Nyathi. The
Ambassador asked Tsvangirai to elaborate on his recent public
call for a a 12-18 month transitional period leading to a new
presidential election. That was not a new proposal, the MDC
president replied, but was consistent with the party’s
position at the aborted talks with the ruling party brokered
in April and May by Presidents Mbeki and Obasanjo.
Tsvangirai said he had merely “reinforced” that suggestion in
SIPDIS
his recent public remarks. A transitional arrangement was
needed, he said, as a “cooling-off” period before a new
election was held, and critical national issues must be
addressed during that period to lay the foundation for
long-term political stability. Asked whether the MDC would
accept President Mugabe in a prominent decision-making role
during the proposed transitional period, Tsvangirai said no,
his retirement was a precondition for the MDC to endorse such
an approach. MDC Secretary-General Welshman Ncube was less
dismissive, saying this would depend on how Mugabe’s status
was handled during a transitional period. For instance,
Mugabe could keep his title as president, while most of his
decision-making powers could be shifted to the transitional
authority.
Economic decline an effective motivator?
—————————————-
¶3. (C) Asked whether he felt significant time pressure to
forge a political solution, Tsvangirai said there is
tremendous pressure on both sides. He predicted that
Mugabe’s regime would be unable to last another six months.
How can a Government function, he asked, with no foreign
exchange, with a worthless currency, and with an inflation
rate predicted to rise soon to 500 percent? The Ambassador
noted that senior ZANU-PF insiders had made the same 6-month
prediction to him of the GOZ’s demise, if the country
continues on the same path. The main pressure on the current
Government, Tsvangirai asserted, would be exerted by the
dramatic economic decline, a factor which might make the
ruling party more inclined to negotiate. Ncube was not
optimistic, declaring that those with influence in ZANU-PF
are hardliners who are convinced they can run the country
“through propaganda.” Those in control, he said, are simply
not interested in dialogue. He warned that the ruling
party’s infamous “retribution machine” has kept ZANU-PF
moderates toeing the party line. ZANU-PF MP’s often agree in
private with their colleagues across the aisle, but they are
not willing to express that agreement in public because they
are afraid of what their own party might do to them.
Restoring the rule of law
————————-
¶4. (C) Staffdel member Malik Chaka asked whether extra-legal
forces such as the youth militia and war veterans pose a
major obstacle to a restoration of stability. Once the
Government of Zimbabwe withdraws support from such groups,
Ncube replied, they will become irrelevant, and disbanding
them would be one of the top priorities of a transitional
authority. According to Tsvangirai, any transitional
authority also must be able to resolve two delicate issues
relating to the military; how to deal with all the land
allocated to members of the military under the fast track
program, and how to handle the fact that many security
service members have committed atrocities.
Land
—-
¶5. (C) Asked whether an MDC government would be able to
restore commercial agriculture, Tsvangirai replied that the
first step would be to carry out a comprehensive audit of the
former commercial farming sector. Armed with that
information, the MDC would move to restore property rights
and the right to buy and sell land. The Ambassador pointed
out that, whether one liked it or not, there is a new reality
on commercial farms. Did the MDC plan to formulate a new
policy on land which took into account this new reality?
Ncube insisted that, in every nation that has ever carried
out radical land reform — citing the USSR and Mozambique —
that reform has slowly been reversed over time. It is not
politically viable for the MDC to say that it would reverse
what has been done under the fast track resettlement program
but, realistically, any future government will have to find a
way to restore commercial agriculture. What has happened in
Zimbabwe, Ncube said, is that all the property acquired has
simply been transferred from private ownership to government
ownership, so government has complete control over what
happens to that land. MDC spokesman Themba-Nyathi remarked
that an additional challenge for a future government would be
to change people’s psychology away from land and toward
poverty eradication. Tsvangirai agreed, saying people were
more interested in jobs than land, and that no country has
ever developed by removing people from industry and sending
them to rural areas to farm.
Role of International Community
——————————-
¶6. (C) Tsvangirai said he thought the international
community had played an effective role in increasing pressure
on the Mugabe regime, by not recognizing the legitimacy of
the March 2002 election. He expressed concern, however, that
the EU regularly makes exceptions to the travel ban imposed
on certain GOZ officials. He expressed hope that Kofi Annan
would play a more active role in focusing attention on
Zimbabwe’s humanitarian crisis and that African countries —
South Africa in particular — would engage more actively in
the search for a solution here. Welshman Ncube was much more
critical of the South African government, which he accused of
working actively to undermine the prospects for democracy in
Zimbabwe. He had particularly harsh words for South African
Foreign Minister Zuma, whom he claimed had been in Europe the
previous week lobbying the European Union not to renew its
targeted sanctions against Zimbabwean officials in February
¶2003. Themba-Nyathi exprssed concern that such lobbying by
Pretoria might be having an effect, reporting that the
Portuguese ambassador in Harare had recently “dressed down”
two senior MDC legislators when the latter suggested that
President Mugabe should be excluded from next year’s
EU-African Union summit in Lisbon.
¶7. (C) Asked to describe the MDC’s relations with the
Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), Tsvangirai
said COSATU is facing tremendous pressure from the ANC, which
accuses it of being ultra-leftist, “whatever that means.”
The MDC, its leader said, has tried to avoid direct contact
with the ANC and those in coalition with it, and is focusing
more on working to strengthen linkages with South African
churches and civic organizations.
Comment
——-
¶8. (C) As usual, Tsvangirai portrayed himself as a
conciliator committed to achieving change through peaceful,
democratic means. At the same time, his recent public
remarks have become much tougher, stating explicitly that the
MDC can no longer restrain Zimbabweans from expressing their
anger and frustration and pledging the party’s support of
“all peaceful means” to achieve change. In one public
speech, he criticized party supporters for being afraid of
the GOZ’s security forces — telling them to “vomit up their
fear” — and for waiting for him to tell them what to do.
Zimbabwe’s economic decline in the last three weeks alone has
been dramatic — with the fuel shortage becoming critical and
many essential commodities simply disappearing from the
shelves — and raises increasing concerns of civil unrest
that could quickly spiral out of control.
¶9. (C) Welshman Ncube has in the past criticized what he has
viewed as South Africa’s duplicitous efforts on Zimbabwe, but
this is the most vehement criticism we have heard from him.
We would be interested in learning whether FM Zuma has indeed
been pressing the EU to drop its targeted sanctions against
Zimbabwean officials, and, if so, why.
SULLIVAN
(36 VIEWS)
