The Zimbabwe Election Supervisory Network’s parallel vote tabulation may have helped prevent President Robert Mugabe from “stealing” the 2008 election outright according to a cable released by Wikileaks.
The cable dispatched by United States ambassador to Zimbabwe James McGee, three weeks before the presidential election run-off, says the ZESN vote tabulation was key in demonstrating Movement for Democratic Change leader Morgan Tsvangirai’s lead in the March 29 presidential election, thus “preventing Mugabe from stealing the election outright”.
The cable was about preparations the ZESN was making for the presidential elections as it was hoping to repeat the parallel tabulation process.
The ZESN figures for March were closer to the final results than those that were initially released by the MDC.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 08HARARE487, LOCAL ELECTION OBSERVERS READY, WAITING FOR
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Reference ID |
Created |
Released |
Classification |
Origin |
VZCZCXYZ0002
OO RUEHWEB
DE RUEHSB #0487/01 1561426
ZNY CCCCC ZZH (CCY AD9DBBB7 MSI4646-695)
O 041426Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2988
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 2025
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 2146
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 0688
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1423
RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 1781
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 2202
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 4633
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/EUCOM POLAD VAIHINGEN GE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 1288
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000487
SIPDIS
C O R R E C T E D COPY TEXT
AF/S FOR S. HILL
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS
STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM KDEM ZI
SUBJECT: LOCAL ELECTION OBSERVERS READY, WAITING FOR
ACCREDITATION
Classified By: Ambassador James McGee for reason 1.4 (d)
——
SUMMARY
——-
¶1. (C) In a meeting with a Zimbabwe Election Support Network
(ZESN) official on June 3, ZESN appeared confident and
prepared to mobilize efforts to deploy observers throughout
the country for the June 27 Presidential runoff. On June 2,
ZESN submitted their list of about 10,000 proposed observers
to the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) – the first step towards
securing a MoJ invitation to participate as local election
observers. However, the MoJ said they would not respond
until June 10 at the earliest, leaving ZESN less than three
weeks to bring the observers to Harare for training in new
election rules and to apply for their individual
accreditations. ZESN views the delay as a deliberate move by
the Zimbabwean Government (GOZ) to limit the number of
independent observers. Nonetheless, ZESN plans to conduct an
independent, sample-based vote tabulation in the runoff, with
the aim of providing an accurate estimate of the election
results. ZESN did this successfully in the March 29
election, and believes it can pull it off again. This could
prove essential should the GOZ attempt to rig the election.
END SUMMARY.
———————————–
Observers Displaced, But Going Home
———————————–
¶2. (C) In a meeting on June 3, ZESN Program Manager, Tsungai
Kokerai, expressed confidence to poloff that ZESN would have
the capacity to distribute election observers to the
estimated 9,000 polling places for the June 27 presidential
runoff between the incumbent, ZANU-PF’s Robert Mugabe, and
the Movement for Democratic Change’s (MDC) Morgan Tsvangirai.
Kokerai said that some of ZESN’s first round observers had
been displaced – either pre-emptively or fleeing violence –
in Mashonaland East, Sarabani, Mudzi South, and the Mt.
Darwin area. Displaced observers from Mashonaland Central
returned home about two weeks ago, following assurances from
Vice President Joice Mujuru that the region was safe. Thus
far, those observers have not experienced problems, giving
confidence to another group of about 36 observers who plan to
return to the other areas later this week. Kokerai expressed
pride in ZESN observers, citing observers in the
violence-ravaged Mt. Darwin area in Mashonaland Central who
vowed they would observe the election again, regardless of
threats.
¶3. (C) Commenting on the MDC’s campaign strategies, Kokerai
opined that the MDC needs to change tactics away from holding
rallies – which are now poorly attended and also used by
ZANU-PF militias to identify MDC members. Rather she thought
that MDC should focus its efforts on encouraging people that
it is safe to vote rather than who to vote for. (NOTE:
Police denied permission for at least two MDC rallies over
the weekend of June 1. Press reports indicate Tsvangirai
toured high density neighborhoods near Bulawayo on June 4 on
foot. END NOTE.) Kokerai also confirmed rumors that people,
especially in rural areas, are being threatened with beatings
if they do not vote at all. While some are afraid, Kokerai
believes people will still vote for MDC rather than stay home
on June 27. She cited a Shona proverb that is being repeated
across the country, “which option is not death?” While some
round-one observers fear retribution if they observe again,
Kokerai said that other volunteers are emerging to fill the
gaps.
———————————-
GOZ Delaying Accreditation Process
———————————-
¶4. (C) Kokerai explained that for ZESN to receive
accreditation as an election-observing organization, it first
needs an invitation from the MoJ, currently headed by Mugabe
stalwart Patrick Chinamasa. (NOTE: Chinamasa was voted out of
his seat in the March 29 election by his constituency in
Marondera, Mashonaland East. He has, nonetheless, refused to
relinquish his seat as Minister, to the protests of members
of the opposition. END NOTE.) Normally, the MoJ would
publish an announcement in the local press, inviting
organizations such as ZESN to submit letters requesting
invitation. Although this advertisement had not yet been
published, ZESN – along with other independent organizations
– submitted its letter yesterday. Kokerai said that the MoJ
appeared disinterested and asked them why ZESN had sent the
letter when MoJ haven’t yet put out the advertisement.
¶5. (C) ZESN plans to submit a second, slightly different
list of names on Friday June 7, so that either list that
Chinamasa approves will have enough observers. ZESN is also
coordinating efforts with churches and other local election
observing groups to put people on multiple organizations’
lists, with the goal of having at least two independent
observers at each polling place.
—————————————-
Polling Locations, Numbers Still Unknown
—————————————-
¶6. (C) In the March 29 election there were approximately
9,000 polling places. However, the polling places for the
June 27 runoff have not yet been announced, complicating
ZESN’s efforts to distribute observers. Kokerai said the
polling places should be identified and agreed upon by all
parties and the Zimbabwe Election Commission in advance of
the election. Nonetheless, some places were identified or
changed just before the March 29 election.
————————————-
Confident in Parallel Vote Tabulation
————————————-
¶7. (C) Kokerai appeared confident that ZESN will be able to
repeat their successful parallel vote tabulation for this
election. Assuming the number of polling places holds, it
needs about 4,000 observers to provide “cover” for the random
sample of 435 polling places that they will use for the
parallel vote tabulation. Even in the unlikely circumstance
ZESN cannot get accreditation for all of its observers, ZESN
has mechanisms to coordinate data collection with other local
observers. Kokerai dismissed the idea that the GOZ would
deny local organizations accreditation to observe the
election.
——————
Fighting the Clock
——————
¶8. (C) As the electricity went out in the house ZESN uses
for its offices, Kokerai cited time as the biggest challenge
they face. With their request for an accreditation
invitation sitting on Minister Chinamasa’s desk, ZESN cannot
yet bring in its observers for training or to apply for new
accreditation badges. As part of the Electoral Amendment
passed in mid-May, the GOZ modified the V-11 form observers
and party officials must sign at the polling place, ZESN
needs to ensure its observers understand the form and keep a
copy after the votes are counted. In addition, ZESN has
about 2,000 new observers that need training. While such
training should last two days, she believes they will have
only a couple hours to train the different groups of new
observers.
——-
COMMENT
——-
¶9. (C) ZESN’s parallel vote tabulation proved key in
demonstrating Tsvangirai’s lead in the March 29 presidential
election, preventing Mugabe from stealing the election
outright. ZESN appears confident that even if accreditations
are delayed or denied, they will be able to gather enough
information to repeat the parallel tabulation process. While
they are frustrated with GOZ efforts to delay the
accreditation process, ZESN is prepared to work around the
clock to prepare. It is also reassuring that displaced
observers are returning home and that they have as many as
2,000 new volunteers. END COMMENT.
McGee
(60 VIEWS)
