Despite the emergency of the Movement for Democratic Change as a viable opposition with the potential to win elections and take over the government, the West and Zimbabweans have been obsessed with who is going to succeed President Robert Mugabe as if the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front is going to rule forever.
Eleven years ago, the United States embassy said the race had been reduced to two runners Emmerson Mnangagwa, then Speaker of Parliament, and Simba Makoni, Finance Minister at the time.
Mnangagwa was reported to be in the strongest position to take over the country’s reins because of his very close ties to Mugabe and the party’s “old guard”.
Makoni was a strong contender because he did not have any ties with any faction and he had a strong appeal among the small but influential middle class.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 01HARARE975, ZIMBABWE PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION RACE DOWN TO
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CONFIDENTIAL PTQ0301
PAGE 01 HARARE 00975 01 OF 03 120948Z
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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8392
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000975
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA C. PALMA
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 00975 01 OF 03 120948Z
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/11
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION RACE DOWN TO
TWO RUNNERS
REFS: A) HARARE 969, B) HARARE 871, C) HARARE 847
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D’AFFAIRES EARL IRVING FOR REASONS:
1.5 (B) AND (D).
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: ZIMBABWE’S PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION RACE
HAS NARROWED TO TWO PEOPLE SHOULD PRESIDENT ROBERT
MUGABE DECIDE NOT TO RUN FOR REELECTION IN THE EARLY
2002 RACE. SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA IS
IN THE STRONGEST POSITION TO TAKE OVER THE COUNTRY’S
REINS, WITH HIS VERY CLOSE TIES TO THE PRESIDENT AND THE
PARTY’S “OLD GUARD,” ACCORDING TO OUR CONTACTS. FINANCE
MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI IS IN SECOND PLACE IN THE
SUCCESSION RACE, AND HIS LACK OF STRONG TIES TO ANY ONE
FACTION AND HIS APPEAL AMONG ZIMBABWE’S SMALL BUT
INFLUENTIAL MIDDLE CLASS, MAKE HIM A STRONG CONTENDER
AMONG THE PARTY’S MODERATES. THE PRESIDENTIAL HOPES OF
OTHER AMBITIOUS LEADERS, SUCH AS LOCAL GOVERNMENT
MINISTER IGNATIUS CHOMBO AND HOME AFFAIRS MINISTER JOHN
NKOMO, ARE FADING FAST AS THEY FAIL TO MAKE THEMSELVES
KNOWN TO THE ELECTORATE. END SUMMARY.
¶2. (C) POLOFF SPOKE TO MASIPULA SITHOLE, A POLITICAL
SCIENCE PROFESSOR AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE,
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PAGE 03 HARARE 00975 01 OF 03 120948Z
INFLUENTIAL COLUMNIST, AND DIRECTOR OF THE INSTITUTE OF
PUBLIC OPINION, ON MARCH 6 ABOUT THE SUCCESSION STRUGGLE
IN ZANU-PF. POLOFF ALSO INTERVIEWED IDEN WETHERELL,
EDITOR OF “THE ZIMBABWE INDEPENDENT” NEWSPAPER ON MARCH
7 ON THE SAME SUBJECT. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS PRESIDENT
MUGABE HAS EVERY INTENTION OF RUNNING AGAIN IN EARLY
2002, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT HE MAY ANOINT A
SUCCESSOR IF HE DETERMINES BY YEAR’S END THAT HE CANNOT
WIN REELECTION, RATHER THAN RISK AN OPPOSITION VICTORY.
MORE LIKELY, HOWEVER, MUGABE WILL RESIGN MIDWAY THROUGH
A FINAL TERM AND HAND THE REINS TO A SUCCESSOR AT THAT
POINT. THIS MESSAGE EXAMINES WHO HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT
THIS POINT OF BECOMING THAT SUCCESSOR.
MNANGAGWA LEADS THE PACK
————————
¶3. (C) SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA IS IN
THE STRONGEST POSITION TO SUCCEED PRESIDENT MUGABE, THE
CONTACTS WE TALKED TO AGREED. SITHOLE CALLED MNANGAGWA
“THE PRINCE’S FAVORITE” BECAUSE OF THEIR LONG-TIME AND
VERY CLOSE TIES. (SITHOLE CALLS MUGABE “THE PRINCE”
BECAUSE THE PRESIDENT READS THE MACHIAVELLI WORK OVER
AND OVER AGAIN, THE PROFESSOR MUSED.) SITHOLE RECOUNTED
MNANGAGWA’S DAYS WORKING WITH MUGABE DURING THE
LIBERATION STRUGGLE WHILE IN EXILE IN THE LATE 1970S.
AS MUGABE’S CHIEF OF SECURITY, MNANGAGWA PROVIDED
INFORMATION TO MUGABE ON THE ACTIVITIES OF HIS RIVALS IN
THE LIBERATION MOVEMENT. MNANGAGWA’S REPORTS LED MUGABE
TO IMPRISON A NUMBER OF MOVEMENT POLITICIANS, INCLUDING
KUMBIRAI KANGAI (FORMER AGRICULTURE MINISTER) AND RUGARE
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PAGE 04 HARARE 00975 01 OF 03 120948Z
GUMBO (CURRENT DEPUTY MINISTER OF HOME AFFAIRS), EVEN
BEFORE INDEPENDENCE, SITHOLE SAID. MNANGAGWA LIKELY HAD
A HAND IN THE DECEMBER 1979 DEATH OF JOSIAH TONGOGARA,
MUGABE’S PRINCIPAL RIVAL FOR CONTROL OF THE ZANU
MOVEMENT AT THE TIME, THE PROFESSOR STATED. AFTER
INDEPENDENCE IN 1980, MNANGAGWA, AS MUGABE’S NEW
MINISTER FOR NATIONAL SECURITY AND OVERSEER OF THE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION, PUT SPIES ON
VIRTUALLY EVERY PROMINENT FIGURE IN ZANU, WHICH
STRENGTHENED MUGABE’S HOLD ON THE PARTY IMMEASURABLY.
¶4. (C) MNANGAGWA’S POSITION AS MUGABE’S “FAVORITE”
COULD ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE LIABILITY FOR MNANGAGWA,
SITHOLE ARGUED. MUGABE IS NOT WELL LIKED IN THE PARTY,
AND MNANGAGWA’S VERY CLOSE ASSOCIATION WITH HIM DOES NOT
IMPROVE MNANGAGWA’S ALREADY VERY LOW POPULARITY RATINGS.
IF THE PARTY HAD HAD ANYTHING TO SAY ABOUT MNANGAGWA’S
ELECTION AS SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT IN AUGUST 2000, THE
SPEAKER WOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN PUT FORWARD AS A
CANDIDATE, THE COLUMNIST SURMISED. HE IS SPEAKER
BECAUSE MUGABE WANTED IT THAT WAY. ZANU-PF WOULD NEVER
VOLUNTARILY NOMINATE MNANGAGWA AS ITS CANDIDATE FOR
PRESIDENT, EITHER; IT WOULD ONLY DO SO IF MUGABE IMPOSED
HIS CANDIDACY, SITHOLE CONCLUDED.
CONFIDENTIAL
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——————D058CE 120948Z /38
P 120946Z MAR 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8393
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 000975
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA C. PALMA
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 00975 02 OF 03 120948Z
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/11
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION RACE DOWN TO
TWO RUNNERS
¶5. (C) “THE INDEPENDENT” EDITOR WETHERELL DESCRIBED
MNANGAGWA AS A “NIMBLE OPERATOR,” AND “ONE OF THE MOST
INTELLIGENT MEN IN GOVERNMENT,” WHICH MAKES HIM ALL THE
MORE DANGEROUS. THE SPEAKER ALSO HAS A VERY ASTUTE
UNDERSTANDING OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS’ AGENDAS AND GLOBAL
ISSUES, AND KNOWS ALL THE RIGHT THINGS TO SAY ON HUMAN
RIGHTS AND OTHER WESTERN CONCERNS. HE IS GOOD AT
“PLAYING TO ALL GALLERIES,” THE EDITOR REMARKED.
NONETHELESS, MNANGAGWA IS NOT WELL-LIKED IN THE PARTY,
OR THE COUNTRY AS A WHOLE — HIS FAILED BID TO BECOME
ZANU-PF NATIONAL CHAIRMAN IN DECEMBER 1999 AND HIS
RESOUNDING LOSS OF HIS KWEKWE PARLIAMENTARY SEAT LAST
JUNE ARE AMPLE EVIDENCE OF THIS, WETHERELL STATED.
MNANGAGWA WOULD BE MORE OF A LIABILITY TO ZANU-PF THAN
MUGABE SHOULD THE SPEAKER BECOME THE PARTY’S
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, WETHERELL OPINED.
¶6. (C) IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE MARCH 2-8 EDITION OF
THE GOVERNMENT-INFLUENCED “THE MIRROR” REPORTED THAT THE
PROVINCIAL RESTRUCTURING EFFORT CURRENTLY UNDERWAY IN
ZANU-PF (REF B) IS DESIGNED TO PUT IN LOCAL LEADERS WHO
CAN EFFECTIVELY “MARKET” MNANGAGWA AS A PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATE TO THE MASSES. THE ARTICLE ALSO REPORTED THAT
THE SYSTEMATIC SIDELINING IN ZANU-PF OF MASVINGO LEADER
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 00975 02 OF 03 120948Z
AND MNANGAGWA RIVAL EDDISON ZVOBGO (REF C) IS SUPPOSED
TO CLEAR THE WAY FOR A MNANGAGWA PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDACY.
ZVOBGO WAS REPORTED TO HAVE LED THE EFFORT TO THWART
MNANGAGWA’S BID TO BECOME ZANU-PF’S NATIONAL CHAIRMAN IN
DECEMBER 1999, AND IS BEING SIDELINED AS PUNISHMENT AND
TO ENSURE HE DOES NOT PRESENT AN OBSTACLE TO MNANGAGWA’S
ASCENDANCY. MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI TOLD
VISITING DAS MARK BELLAMY ON MARCH 9 (REF A) THAT
MNANGAGWA IS THE ONLY ZANU-PF CANDIDATE WITH THE CLOUT
TO SUCCEED MUGABE. “THE MDC WOULD WELCOME HIS
CANDIDACY,” THE OPPOSITION LEADER VOLUNTEERED, REFERRING
TO THE SPEAKER’S LOW POPULARITY AND REPUTATION FOR
TRUCULENCE.
MAKONI IS IN SECOND PLACE
————————-
¶7. (C) FINANCE MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI WOULD BE ZANU-PF’S
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IF THE PARTY HAD ANY SAY IN THE
MATTER, ACCORDING TO SITHOLE. MAKONI’S STRENGTH IS THAT
HE DOES NOT HAVE ANY STRONG TIES TO ANY PARTICULAR
FACTION IN ZANU-PF, WHICH MAKES HIM AN IDEAL CANDIDATE
ON WHOM EVERYONE CAN AGREE, THE PROFESSOR OPINED. IN
ADDITION, MAKONI APPEALS TO ZIMBABWE’S RELATIVELY SMALL
BUT INFLUENTIAL MIDDLE CLASS THAT DOMINATES THE URBAN
AREAS. SITHOLE BELIEVES THAT MAKONI IS MAKING AN
IMPRESSION ON THE ZANU-PF MEMBERSHIP BECAUSE HE IS
PERSUASIVE, KNOWLEDGEABLE ON WIDE VARIETY OF ISSUES, AND
LOOKS LIKE SOMEONE WHO COULD HAVE A VISION FOR THE
COUNTRY. (NOTE: WHEN PRESSED, SITHOLE DID NOT KNOW WHAT
THAT VISION MIGHT BE, HOWEVER. END NOTE.) MAKONI IS
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 HARARE 00975 02 OF 03 120948Z
ALSO SMART ENOUGH TO CULTIVATE A CORDIAL RELATIONSHIP
WITH THE MDC. HE COULD BE A MINISTER OF FINANCE UNDER
AN MDC-LED GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY, SHOULD THE MDC
WIN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, SITHOLE PREDICTED.
¶8. (C) WETHERELL WAS LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT MAKONI’S
PROSPECTS. HE STATED THAT MNANGAGWA WOULD HAVE TO BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE PICTURE IN ORDER FOR MAKONI TO
HAVE ANY SHOT AT THE PRESIDENCY. MAKONI HAS NO POWER
BASE OF HIS OWN, AND IS A PRODUCT OF THE ZANU-PF SYSTEM
OF “BARONIAL FIEFDOMS,” WETHERELL COMMENTED. MAKONI
TRIED TO ESTABLISH HIS OWN BASE IN MANICALAND IN RECENT
YEARS, BUT FAILED. DESPITE HIS SHORTCOMINGS, MANY IN
THE PARTY SEE HIM AS THEIR “GREAT BLACK HOPE.” HE HAS
AN EXCELLENT GRASP OF ECONOMICS AND POLICYMAKING AND HAS
THE ABILITY TO LEAD THE COUNTRY OUT OF ECONOMIC RUIN,
THE EDITOR OFFERED. A NUMBER OF ZANU-PF’S EMERGING
YOUNG POWER BARONS, SUCH AS CHINHOYI MP PHILLIP
CHIYANGWA AND MOUNT DARWIN SOUTH MP TYSON KASUKUWERE,
ARE WITHHOLDING THEIR SUPPORT FOR MAKONI BECAUSE THEY
ARE AFRAID TO BACK THE WRONG HORSE. THEY ARE MORE
INTERESTED IN SELF-ENRICHMENT, ANYWAY, AND MAKONI’S
REFORM POLICIES COULD JEOPARDIZE THEIR SUBSTANTIAL
BUSINESS LINKAGES TO ZANU-PF, ACCORDING TO WETHERELL.
IN REF A MEETING, MORGAN TSVANGIRAI DISMISSED MAKONI’S
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ0305
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VCE-00 AC-01 DCP-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01
PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 STR-00
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——————D058DE 120948Z /38
P 120946Z MAR 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8394
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 000975
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA C. PALMA
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 00975 03 OF 03 120948Z
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/11
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION RACE DOWN TO
TWO RUNNERS
CANDIDACY, NOTING, “HE COULD NEVER CONTROL THE ZANU-PF
HARDLINERS.” MASVINGO ZANU-PF “SUPREMO” ZVOBGO, ON THE
OTHER HAND, IMPLIED HIS SUPPORT OF MAKONI TO US, SAYING
THAT MANY WOULD THROW THEIR WEIGHT BEHIND HIM BECAUSE OF
HIS POPULAR APPEAL.
OTHER CONTENDERS FALLING FAR BEHIND
———————————–
¶9. (C) THE PRESIDENTIAL PROSPECTS OF MINISTER OF LOCAL
GOVERNMENT, PUBLIC WORKS AND NATIONAL HOUSING IGNATIUS
CHOMBO ARE FADING FAST, BOTH SITHOLE AND WETHERELL
AGREED. ALTHOUGH SOME THINK HE IS PRESIDENTIAL
MATERIAL, CHOMBO IS TOO CLOSE TO MUGABE TO HAVE HIS OWN
SUPPORT BASE, SITHOLE OPINED. IN FACT, CHOMBO IS A
DISTANT COUSIN OF MUGABE AND CAME FROM THE SAME VILLAGE
IN ZVIMBA DISTRICT AS THE PRESIDENT, THE PROFESSOR
ASSERTED. WETHERELL DESCRIBED CHOMBO AS THE PRESIDENT’S
“BLUE-EYED BOY,” BUT NOT AS PARTICULARLY BRIGHT OR
POLITICALLY ASTUTE. ZANU-PF NATIONAL CHAIRMAN JOHN
NKOMO, WHO COMPLETELY LACKS ANY CHARISMA, LOST HIS
CHANCE FOR THE PRESIDENCY WHEN HE FAILED TO WIN A
PARLIAMENTARY SEAT LAST JUNE, THE EDITOR REMARKED.
FURTHERMORE, NKOMO HAS FAILED TO MAKE A NAME FOR HIMSELF
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PAGE 03 HARARE 00975 03 OF 03 120948Z
AMONG ZIMBABWEAN VOTERS, WETHERELL CONCLUDED.
¶10. (C) BOTH INTERLOCUTORS AGREED THAT MINISTER FOR
INFORMATION AND PUBLICITY JONATHAN MOYO IS DESPISED IN
ZANU-PF AND WILL NEVER BE ANYTHING MORE THAN “PRESIDENT
MUGABE’S MAN.” IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT MOYO COULD BECOME
A PRIME MINISTER UNDER A FINAL MUGABE TERM AND AMENDED
CONSTITUTION, BUT AS SOON AS MUGABE GOES, SO WILL MOYO,
WETHERELL BELIEVES. MOYO IS ONE OF THE MOST HATED
FIGURES IN THE COUNTRY RIGHT NOW AND NO ONE OTHER THAN
MUGABE WILL BACK HIM.
COMMENT
——-
¶11. (C) IT APPEARS THAT THE PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION
RACE IS NARROWING TO TWO PEOPLE: MNANGAGWA AND MAKONI.
SHOULD SOMETHING HAPPEN TO MUGABE TOMORROW, MNANGAGWA IS
BEST POSITIONED TO STEP IN, PICK UP THE PIECES, AND
CONSOLIDATE POWER. DESPITE THE COMMON REFRAIN THAT
MNANGAGWA IS WIDELY HATED IN THE PARTY FOR HIS
RUTHLESSNESS, ONE CAN ALSO SEE IN HIM A PRAGMATIC AND
SKILLFUL POLITICIAN THAT COULD HOLD A GOVERNMENT
TOGETHER AND SOOTH AN INTERNATIONAL AUDIENCE. IT IS FAR
FROM CLEAR, HOWEVER, WHETHER HE WOULD MAKE THE HARD
CHOICES TO SHORE UP ZIMBABWE’S CRUMBLING DEMOCRATIC
INSTITUTIONS AND COLLAPSING ECONOMY. MNANGAGWA WOULD
REPRESENT A CONTINUATION OF THE MUGABE ERA, AND POSSIBLY
A VERY LONG CONTINUATION AT THAT, SHOULD MUGABE HOLD THE
MDC AT BAY IN THE ELECTION AND PASS THE BATON TO
MNANGAGWA.
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PAGE 04 HARARE 00975 03 OF 03 120948Z
¶12. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: MAKONI, ON THE OTHER HAND,
WOULD LIKELY TRY TO IMPLEMENT THE DEMOCRATIC AND
ECONOMIC REFORMS NEEDED TO TURN ZIMBABWE AROUND, BUT HE
MAY NOT HAVE THE POLITICAL SKILLS TO HOLD A FRACTIOUS
GOVERNMENT TOGETHER OR FEND OFF CHALLENGES FROM THE
OPPOSITION. MAKONI, YOUNGER THAN MUGABE AND MNANGAGWA,
WOULD REPRESENT A CLEAN BREAK FROM THE OLD ZANU-PF, AND
COULD PROBABLY GARNER REAL PUBLIC SUPPORT. HIS TENURE
COULD BE SHORTENED, HOWEVER, BY MORE WILY AND RUTHLESS
OPERATIVES IN ZANU-PF. ZIMBABWEAN VOTERS COULD YET HAVE
THE FINAL SAY, HOWEVER, AND CAST OUT THE WHOLE ZANU-PF
LOT AND GIVE THE MDC A CHANCE AT GOVERNING. END
COMMENT.
IRVING
CONFIDENTIAL
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