Vice-President Emmerson Mnangagwa, who is seen as the most likely successor to President Robert Mugabe, offers the best prospects for a stable transition out of Zimbabwe’s economic crisis but he probably has to work with the opposition and civil society, a British think-tank, Chatham House, says.
In its report entitled: The Domestic and External Implications of Zimbabwe’s Economic Reform and Re-engagement Agenda released this month, the think-tank says Mnangagwa is already working with Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa and Central Bank governor John Mangudya on re-engagement with the International Financial Institutions so the expectation is that he would continue on this pathway.
“He is seen as possibly offering the best prospects for a stable transition out of the economic crisis, provided he works with others in opposition and civil society. However, he is not widely popular, and has a difficult legacy associated with Gukurahundi,” it says.
But he has some strong points.
“Mnangagwa has strong liberation war credentials, and has forged close links with the military and the War Veterans. He could be pivotal in trying to heal the emerging divide between the War Veterans and their patron Mugabe,” the report says.
“But there are no guarantees that Mnangagwa will succeed; and if he were to come to power his economic policy choices would likely be constrained by continued ideological and political power struggles within ZANU-PF. The political fate of Mnangagwa’s predecessor, Joice Mujuru, within the party’s intricate internal politics serves as a salutary reminder that no one in ZANU-PF is assured the party leadership after Mugabe.”
Below is an excerpt on the political threats Zimbabwe is facing, especially within the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front.
Political Threats
Zimbabwe’s political landscape has become more fractious and factionalized since ZANU-PF’s victory in the contentious 2013 presidential and legislative elections. The defeated opposition has subsequently splintered, and as a result many in ZANU-PF feel that the party no longer faces the existential threat that once united it. The party – and the government – can no longer blame the domestic opposition or the West for the state of Zimbabwe’s economy. Additionally, although the powerful legacy of ‘Chimurenga [Struggle] solidarity’ continues to serve as a unifying factor, the weakening of the opposition and the heightened internal succession issue, along with intergenerational cleavages, has made party unity ever more fragile – and its internal politics more volatile. ZANU-PF as both a political party and a government has begun a transition to the anticipated post-Mugabe era, but the form this will take is yet to be seen. The politicization of the state apparatus has not as yet had a catastrophic impact on its effectiveness. But there are concerns that as cracks in the party widen, the state will become dysfunctional and fracture along the lines of civil servants’ and security officials’ factional loyalties.
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