Former army commander Solomon Mujuru who had been against President Robert Mugabe’s continued stay at the helm of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front since 2006 was to be provided another chance to challenge the octogenarian at the December party annual conference.
Mujuru tried to place the issue of succession at the special party congress in 2007 but was outmanoeuvred by Mugabe and the issue was never discussed.
ZANU-PF has been riven by dissension, principally from Mujuru and his loyalists in Mashonaland East, and from ex-ZAPU members but there were no signs that the dissidents would mount an effective challenge.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 08HARARE1065, ZIMBABWE AMENDMENT 19 AND THE STATE OF PLAY
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Reference ID |
Created |
Released |
Classification |
Origin |
VZCZCXRO7571
OO RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSB #1065/01 3381521
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 031521Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3768
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 2471
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 2596
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 1089
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1865
RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 2220
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 2645
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 5073
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/EUCOM POLAD VAIHINGEN GE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 1737
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001065
SIPDIS
AF/S FOR B.WALCH
DRL FOR N. WILETT
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS
STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2018
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE AMENDMENT 19 AND THE STATE OF PLAY
REF: HARARE 1034
Classified By: Ambassador James D. McGee for reason 1.4 (d)
——-
SUMMARY
——-
¶1. (SBU) Negotiators from ZANU-PF, MDC-T, and MDC-M agreed
on a draft Amendment 19 to the Zimbabwean constitution on
November 27. The draft, which essentially incorporates the
agreement reached by the parties in September, now awaits
approval by party leaders Robert Mugabe, Morgan Tsvangirai,
and Arthur Mutambara. Apart from the Amendment, several
outstanding issues remain, including allocation of ministries
including Home Affairs, allocation of governorships, and
composition and function of the National Security Council.
¶2. (SBU) Tsvangirai remains outside of Zimbabwe and is
visiting African capitals in an effort to rally AU support.
Until his return, there are unlikely to be meetings on
approving Amendment 19 or negotiating other issues. ZANU-PF
is scheduled to hold its annual conference from December 10
to December 12. Despite dissension from former ZAPU members
and allies of General Solomon Mujuru, who would like to
replace Mugabe as ZANU-PF head and Zimbabwe’s president, the
issue of succession is unlikely to be addressed. END SUMMARY.
———————————–
Amendment 19 and Outstanding Issues
———————————–
¶3. (SBU) Both ZANU-PF and MDC-T presented their own versions
of draft amendments to SADC facilitator Thabo Mbeki’s team.
All three parties ultimately agreed on a draft which for all
intents and purposes is the same as the September
power-sharing agreement (now referred to in Amendment 19 as
the Inter-Party Political Agreement). With regard to issues
MDC-T had argued were not resolved by the September agreement:
— Allocation of ministries. This was the major area of
disagreement between the parties with the MDC-t requesting
discussion on an “equitable” allocation of all ministries.
Ultimately, the discussion focused on control of the Home
Affairs Ministry. The issue of allocation of ministries,
including Home Affairs, is not addressed by draft Amendment
¶19.
–Appointment of ambassadors and permanent secretaries. The
draft Amendment 19 adopts the formula of the September
agreement. The president, vice presidents, prime minister,
and deputy prime ministers must agree on such appointments.
–Allocation of governorships. This issue was not addressed
in either the September agreement or draft Amendment 19 and
is subject to further negotiations.
–National Security Council. Draft Amendment 19 and the
September agreement both state that the president chairs the
Council and that the prime minister is a member. The
composition and role of the Council are not defined. The MDC
considers this an outstanding issue to be negotiated.
–Definition of “consultation.” Both draft Amendment 19 and
the September agreement state that the president “in
consultation with the prime minister, makes key appointments
the president is required to make under and in terms of the
Constitution or any Act of Parliament.” Amendment 19 defines
“in consultation” to require agreement of the individual
consulted.
HARARE 00001065 002 OF 003
–Discrepancies between the document agreed to by the parties
on September 11 and the agreement signed by the parties on
September 15. The three discrepancies dealt with the number
and sharing between parties of additional appointed Senate
seats; the appointment of vice-presidents, prime minister,
and deputy prime ministers from outside Parliament, and the
appointment of ministers from outside the ranks of members of
Parliament. The discrepancies are noted in draft Amendment
19 and are to be resolved by the principals.
¶4. (U) If an agreement is reached by the principals on draft
Amendment 19, it must then be officially published
(gazetted). After a 30 day period to allow for public
comment, it can then be introduced in Parliament. Assuming
agreement, it could be passed immediately.
¶5. (C) According to MDC sources, all outstanding issues
could be readily resolved with the exception of control of
the Home Affairs Ministry. Negotiators from all three
parties agreed to discuss the outstanding issues at the time
of negotiations on Amendment 19, but no date has been set for
such discussions.
————
Other Issues
————
¶6. (SBU) While not flagged by either party, there are other
issues that could emerge in efforts to conclude an agreement.
In its draft, ZANU-PF sought to validate all ministerial
acts between the date of the adjournment of Parliament on
June 8 and the enactment of Amendment 19. Some of these acts
would be unconstitutional since the ministers in question did
not hold parliamentary seats. The MDC would presumably want
to start from a clean slate. Relatedly, Mugabe appointed
Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe governor Gideon Gono last week to a
new five-year term. This appointment was obviously outside
the spirit of the September agreement. Also, since the
constitution requires the president to consult with the
finance minister before making the appointment, and the
finance minister was not a member of parliament, the MDC
could argue the consultation and resulting appointment was
unconstitutional.
¶7. (SBU) The MDC-T Amendment 19 proposal contained a
provision for the new Committee on Standing Rules and Orders
to make new appointments to the Electoral Commission, the
Anti-Corruption Commission, and the Human Rights Commission;
ZANU’s draft explicitly called for current Elections
Commission officers to retain their posts. This provision is
not contained in Amendment 19 leaving open the possibility
that existing members of these commissions will continue to
serve. Given the importance in particular of the Electoral
Commission, the MDC may once again raise this issue.
————————
Tsvangirai’s Whereabouts
————————
¶8. (C) Tsvangirai has been outside of Zimbabwe for the last
several weeks seeking to gain support for the MDC-T’s
negotiating position. Stops have included South Africa,
France, Germany, Tanzania, Botswana, and most recently
Senegal. He reportedly has plans to visit Kenya and Zambia.
The GOZ, which for months has promised, but failed, to give
him a passport, has indicated it will investigate him for
traveling beyond the scope of his travel document. With
apparent concerns that he may have trouble leaving Zimbabwe
after returning, Tsvangirai has no definitive plans to
return. MDC-T officials have told us they believe he will
return within the next week. Until Tsvangirai returns,
HARARE 00001065 003 OF 003
Amendment 19 cannot be adopted and signed.
——————
ZANU-PF Conference
——————
¶9. (SBU) ZANU-PF is scheduled to hold its annual conference
from December 10 to December 12. Before last year’s
conference, General Solomon Mujuru tried to place the issue
of succession on the agenda with the aim of removing Mugabe.
Mugabe outmaneuvered Mujuru and succession was never
discussed. ZANU-PF continues to be riven by dissension,
principally from Mujuru and his loyalists in Mashonaland
East, and from ex-ZAPU members. But there are as yet no
signs that the dissidents will mount an effective challenge,
and all signs point to a well-orchestrated and smooth
conference with no challenge to Mugabe.
——-
COMMENT
——-
¶10. (C) Under Amendment 19, as with the September agreement,
Mugabe would head the cabinet and Tsvangirai would head a
council of ministers. Both men would have executive
authority. Although certain duties of the president and
prime minister are delineated, it is unclear how the
president and cabinet and the prime minister and council
would coordinate the formulation and implementation of
policy. Success in governing would be dependent upon the
good will of the respective leaders and parties, something
that has been noticeably absent on the part of ZANU-PF.
¶11. (C) Article 19 represents a vehicle for the MDC to enter
government. The MDC must decide whether it believes that by
becoming part of government it can reach a modus vivendi with
ZANU-PF to stabilize the country with the ultimate goal of
ultimately defeating ZANU-PF in elections, or whether it
would be better off remaining outside of government, fighting
the GOZ and ZANU-PF from within Parliament, and waiting for
ZANU-PF to collapse. If the MDC decides not to join
government it will use the issue of an inequitable allocation
of ministries (assuming ZANU-PF does not relent on Home
Affairs) to justify its position. Meanwhile, as the
negotiating game continues, the country and its people
continue to suffer.
McGee
(28 VIEWS)
