The African National Congress of South Africa allegedly bought into a plan by the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front under which President Robert Mugabe was to serve his term but would appoint Emmerson Mnangagwa as Prime Minister to gradually take over most of the executive functions from him.
The plan was reportedly told to Movement for Democratic Change parliamentarian David Coltart by ANC official Patrick Moseki on 9 December 2002.
Mnangagwa was to offer a token number of cabinet positions to the MDC. He suggested two seats but was urged by some of his ANC interlocutors to increase that number to five.
If the MDC opted not to go along with this plan, it was to be crushed ruthlessly.
ZANU-PF was going to implement the plan regardless of what the international community thought of it or Mnangagwa.
When the plan was relayed to MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai, he accused Britain and South Africa of trying to maintain ZANU-PF in power.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 02HARARE2838, MDC-ANC CONTACTS ON ZIMBABWE
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002838
SIPDIS
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR CNEARY
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2012
SUBJECT: MDC-ANC CONTACTS ON ZIMBABWE
REF: HARARE 2829
Classified By: political section chief Matt Harrington. Reasons: 1.5 (
B) and (D).
Summary
——–
¶1. (C) According to a senior MDC parliamentarian, the ANC
has agreed to a ZANU-PF plan for Zimbabwean Speaker of
Parliament Emmerson Mnangagwa to replace Robert Mugabe, while
offering token reprentation to the opposition. MDC leader
Morgan Tsvangirai was briefed on this initiative, which
likely prompted his December 18 statement condemning South
Africa and Britain. The retired Rhodesian Colonel named in
the statement admitted being sent as an emissary to
Tsvangirai by Mnangagwa and defense forces chief Vitalis
SIPDIS
Zvinavashe, a particularly interesting development if Mugabe
was unaware of this overture. Meanwhile, Father Fidelis
Mukonori’s efforts to broker a Mugabe-Tsvangirai dialogue are
at an embryonic stage, but both sides appear willing to
engage in such an effort given the provision of unspecified
guarantees from the other. The MDC no longer believes South
Africa will play a fair broker role on Zimbabwe and has told
Commonwealth Secretary-General Don McKinnon in a letter that
Pretoria has “repudiated its membership in the Troika” by its
demonstrated partiality toward the “illegitimate Mugabe
regime.” End Summary.
ANC-ZANU-PF plan on the way forward
———————————–
¶2. (C) Reftel reported issuance of a statement by Movement
for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai accusing
Britain, South Africa, and elements of ZANU-PF of conspiring
to keep the ruling party in power after Robert Mugabe’s
departure from office. We subsequently received a report of
two recent meetings held in South Africa between MDC
parliamentarian (and shadow justice minister) David Coltart
and Patrick Moseki, described to us as a senior ANC official,
which might shed additional light on the motivations for
Tsvangirai’s statement.
SIPDIS
¶3. (C) According to Coltart’s report, Coltart and Moseki
first met in South Africa on December 8. Moseki reportedly
explained that Thabo Mbeki was facing growing criticism from
within the ANC and its coalition partners for not doing
enough to make the South African economy more equitable. He
implied that Mbeki was consumed predominantly with
consolidating his political position, and that his views on
Zimbabwe should be considered in that light. Coltart replied
with a description of the dramatic economic decline and the
famine in Zimbabwe, and made it clear that the resulting
tensions could soon erupt if the underlying political crisis
were not soon resolved. He reiterated the MDC’s proposal on
a way forward — Mugabe’s retirement followed by
establishment of a transitional authority which would restore
some degree of political and economic stability and pave the
way for a new, internationally-supervised presidential
election. Coltart acknowledged that a transitional authority
would have to grant some sort of amnesty to Mugabe and his
senior officials, and that the international community would
have to be prepared to offer safe passage. Moseki replied
that Zimbabwean Speaker of Parliament (and long Mugabe’s heir
apparent) Emmerson Mnangagwa was in South Africa attempting
to sell the ANC a leadership succession plan which excluded
the MDC. Moseki said he would meet Mnangagwa the following
day and report back to Coltart.
¶4. (C) On December 9, Moseki and Coltart met again. Moseki
said he had been part of an ANC delegation which had met for
most of that day with Mnangagwa. The Zimbabwean Speaker had
laid out ZANU-PF’s plan of action, which Moseki implied the
ANC had bought into :
–Mugabe would serve out his term, which expires in 2008 but
would soon appoint Mnangagwa Prime Minister and gradually
turn over most executive functions to him;
–Mnangagwa would offer a token number of Cabinet positions
to the MDC (he suggested two seats but was urged by some of
his ANC interlocutors to increase that number to five);
–If the MDC opted not to go along with this plan, it would
be crushed ruthlessly;
–ZANU-PF would implement the plan regardless of what the
international community thought of it or Mnangagwa.
¶5. (C) Comment: We know that Morgan Tsvangirai has been
briefed on the above discussions, which could have prompted
him to issue his December 19 statement accusing South Africa
of collaborating with ZANU-PF to ensure the latter’s
continued hold on power. The warm reception accorded
Mnangagwa at the ANC congress could have been another factor
in Tsvangirai’s decision to issue such a strong condemnation
of the South Africans. The MDC leadership has come to the
conclusion, over the past several months, that the South
African government will not play a fair broker role on
Zimbabwe. Tsvangirai has written to Commonwealth
Secretary-General Don McKinnon stating that the MDC would
SIPDIS
find it “extremely difficult” to continue to participate in a
Commonwealth Troika process which involves South Africa. In
the letter, a copy of which has been faxed to AF/S,
Tsvangirai writes: “We are convinced that through its
SIPDIS
duplicity, South Africa has repudiated its membership in the
Troika. Pretoria has totally distanced itself from any
attempt to evaluate the Zimbabwe crisis impartially and
objectively. It can only meaningfully participate in the
Troika deliberations not as an honest broker, but as an open
and self-confessed representative of the illegitimate Mugabe
regime.”
Father Fidelis keeps at it
————————–
¶6. (C) Meanwhile, Father Fidelis Mukonori is continuing his
efforts to arrange a Mugabe-Tsvangirai dialogue. In a
meeting with Tsvangirai advisor Gandi Mudzingwa on December
19, Father Fidelis said Mugabe had told him that the MDC
leader had as much of a right as any Zimbabwean to govern
Zimbabwe. Mugabe, however, expressed concerns about the
MDC’s pending court challenge of the presidential election
results and about some in the MDC who were more interested in
seeking retribution than moving forward. Mudzingwa told us
it was apparent from his conversation with Father Fidelis
that Mugabe wants certain guarantees, most likely immunity
from prosecution for past misdeeds. Asked whether Mugabe
would trust Tsvangirai was capable of delivering such a
guarantee, Mudzingwa told us that was an issue to be worked
out in an inter-party dialogue. In his conversation with
Mudzingwa, Father Fidelis was apparently dismissive of
Emmerson Mnangagwa, calling him a “small boy.” Father
Fidelis was due to follow up with Tsvangirai in a meeting
scheduled for December 19. (Comment: This initiative is
clearly in its embryonic stages and it is unclear whether it
will lead anywhere. Mudzingwa was pleasantly surprised by
Mugabe’s reported comment regarding Tsvangirai, and said
dropping the court case was not out of the question provided
significant concessions were agreed first by the other side.
Father Fidelis told us separately that no meeting would occur
this year and until the election court case was resolved.
End Comment.)
British in cahoots with Mnangagwa?
———————————-
¶7. (C) Tsvangirai told the Ambassador on December 17 that he
had learned of efforts by the British Government to convince
the editor of the independent “Daily News” to soften its
regular criticism of Emmerson Mnangagwa. He said he also
knew that retired Colonel Lionel Dyck — who was head of the
Rhodesian military’s parachute regiment and now runs an
international demining company — was working with Mnangagwa
and General Vitalis Zvinavashe, Chairman of the Defense
Forces, to find a solution to Zimbabwe’s political crisis.
(Comment: Tsvangirai clearly assumed these two developments
were related, and appears to have concluded that the British
government believed Mnangagwa’s replacement of Mugabe was the
best way of restoring political stability to Zimbabwe and
that they were working together to effect that outcome. End
Comment.) In response to a journalist’s question, Dyck
acknowledged meeting with Tsvangirai as an emissary of
Mnangagwa and Zvinavashe. “I would like to see peaceful
change in Zimbabwe,” he said, “and, as such, the vehicle of
ZANU-PF should be used as part of a transition to peaceful
change.”
Comment
——-
¶8. (C) As we concluded in reftel, Tsvangirai was concerned
about being squeezed into accepting a political settlement in
which he and the MDC were given only token representation in
an Mnangagwa-led government. He apparently concluded that
exposing his suspicions publicly was the best way of warding
off such a possibility. It is not yet clear whether the MDC
leader’s vehement condemnations of particular governments and
individuals burned bridges with some of those — both
internally and externally — most willing to and capable of
helping extricate Zimbabwe from its cycle of crises. In
addition, if Mugabe was not aware of their overture to
Tsvangirai via Colonel Dyck, Messrs. Mnangagwa and Zvinavashe
SIPDIS
will have some very deft explaining to do.
SULLIVAN
(43 VIEWS)
