Why predictions of Mugabe’s imminent downfall are wrong

Predictions of President Robert Mugabe’s imminent downfall, sparked by recent demonstrations and stay-aways, are wrong says Zimbabwean academic Blessing-Miles Tendi.

“The reason is quite simple: the angry urban social media activists and pro-democracy pundits have failed to absorb two key lessons of the Arab Spring,” he argues.

“The first is that the role of the military in times of civil unrest is pivotal. The second is that social media activism can never substitute for organized political activity on the ground.”

Here is Tendi’s full analysis as published in Foreign Policy.

Why a Hashtag Isn’t Enough for a Revolution in Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe is in turmoil. For the past two weeks, workers have been striking and angry citizens have been taking to the streets to express their discontent with unpaid public-sector wages, proliferating corruption, declining living standards, and police injustice.

President Robert Mugabe’s government is broke, the result of decades of financial mismanagement, and so far it has conspicuously failed in its desperate efforts to find new sources of international financial aid.

Failing new support from outside, the country’s economic collapse is almost sure to accelerate.

Many disgruntled citizens — particularly urban young people — have turned to social media, venting their frustration at the 36-year reign of President Mugabe and his patent inability to resuscitate the failing economy.

Indeed, the recent protests and work stoppages have been encouraged by social media activists, most prominently Pastor Evan Mawarire, founder of the #ThisFlag movement.

The influential role social media has played underlines the vast spread of internet use in Zimbabwe, primarily on mobile smartphones.

It’s a phenomenon reminiscent of the so-called Arab Spring uprisings in 2011, when social media was critical to inspiring and coordinating movements against dictatorship, corruption, poverty, and inequality. Some have even referred to the toppling of Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak as the “Facebook Revolution.”

Some Zimbabwean activists, buoyed by their recent successes in mobilizing protests, are already proclaiming the dawn of a social media-assisted revolution. This, in turn, is prompting many pro-democracy commentators and journalists to declare that Mugabe’s rule is in its final days.

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