There are still very big ifs about Zimbabwe’s opposition coalition

If the grouping holds together up to 2018, however, the resourceful officials in the statehouse and security apparatus will not be short of other more aggressive tactics.

In order to derail the opposition, they are likely to try every dirty trick in the book.

Harassing opposition leaders is a well-practised strategy that the state will wheel out once more against Tsvangirai and others.

Meanwhile, it may try to undermine Mujuru.

In as much as the former Vice-President has secrets about the regime, it is inconceivable that the state does not have secrets about her too.

Mujuru also faces outstanding allegations of treason, which the government could charge her with in an attempt to derail her campaign.

Alternatively, ZANU-PF could also try to lure back Mujuru back into government.

This would not be the first time Mugabe has brought a wayward nemesis back into the fold.

Either way, there is a long way to go until the 2018 elections.

If the opposition coalition is able to resolve internal questions and hold together until then, it would represent a momentous development in Zimbabwe’s political history.

If it maintains the support of civil society, it could lead one of the most broad-based movements against the government ever seen.

And if it can use insights from a former insider to come up with effective strategies against ZANU-PF’s electoral dominance, it could present the opposition’s best chance yet to unseat the ageing President Mugabe.

As of now, however, these are all still very big ifs.

By Simukai Tinhu. This article first appeared on African Arguments.

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