There are still very big ifs about Zimbabwe’s opposition coalition

These developments have understandably caused excitement amongst those who would like to see an end to Mugabe and the ruling ZANU-PF party’s 37-year rule.

But is the euphoria justified?

The opposition has some good reasons to be excited.

Mugabe’s adversaries have been thwarted time and again, and the spectre of the near win in 2008 still looms large.

In those heavily-disputed elections, Tsvangirai officially garnered 47.9% of the presidential vote, just short of the majority needed to avoid a run-off.

Violence against his supporters eventually led him to boycott the second round, leaving Mugabe to retain the presidency.

But many suggest that a prior opposition alliance between Tsvangirai and Simba Makoni, who came third with 8.3%, would have been enough to defeat the incumbent outright.

Whether this is true or not is academic.

But the formation of the opposition coalition in the run-up to 2018 has certainly generated some momentum.

After the MDC’s dismal performance in 2013, in which Tsvangirai dropped to 34%, many supporters became disillusioned.

But the alliance could rejuvenate hope and morale.

The coming together of the MDC and NPP also combines two differing sets of strengths.

For example, the MDC has been effective at mobilising supporters particularly in urban centres and southern parts of the country.

But it has always struggled to make inroads in the Mashonaland heartlands from which the ruling party draws much of its support.

If Mujuru, who hails from Mashonaland Central, is able to carry over some of the ZANU-PF support base, this pattern could finally change.

However, perhaps the most crucial advantage the former Vice-President brings to the opposition is her link to establishment figures in the security sector.

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