Mnangagwa best person to steer Zimbabwe out its economic crisis says British think-tank

Reform and re-engagement are seen as being irrelevant to millions of Zimbabweans who, struggling for daily subsistence, have been forced into classic short-termism.

There are practical incentives for many party members to support reform. ZANU-PF officials have a strong presence in the business sector, and have a vested interest in promoting reforms likely to produce an improved commercial environment. Those driving the reform agenda also have developed business interests. But the reform process has many critics within the party. Some within the ‘G40’ group see the reform agenda as a Western-inspired process that undermines Zimbabwe’s sovereignty. Not all members of the G40 are opposed to reform and re-engagement, but there are concerns from significant constituencies within ZANU-PF about where economic reform ends and where political reform begins. Some fear that economic reform could ultimately trigger a political power shift. The narrative of a ‘Western agenda’ resonates strongly within the party, and especially among grassroots supporters. Outside the party, many Zimbabweans perceive the reform process as an elite transaction between Zimbabwe (i.e. the government) and its global creditors. Reform and re-engagement are, furthermore, also seen as being irrelevant to millions of Zimbabweans who, struggling for daily subsistence, have been forced into classic short-termism.

Other hardliners within the party are sceptical of economic liberalization and re-engagement, particularly with the Bretton Woods institutions, as they fear this will mean the end of ZANUPF’s historical ideological objective to create a de facto one-party socialist state with a ‘captive’ or ‘token’ opposition.

Attempts to contain and manage factionalism, including tacit endorsement for the ending of factional purges, have not been successful. Although his power and prestige have seen some attrition in recent years, the president remains the dominant controlling force of both party and government, and will have a role to play in efforts to unify the party and win back disaffected constituents ahead of the elections due in 2018. The so-called ‘Million Man March’ in support of Mugabe in Harare in May 2016, and assertions of loyalty to him by the ZANU-PF Youth League, Women’s League, some War Veterans organizations, the military and other key stakeholders, have all served to reinforce Mugabe’s status as an icon within the party. This makes it harder for any internal challengers to gain traction, particularly with national elections on the horizon. Zanu-PF is faced with a dilemma. On the one hand, Mugabe’s age and state of health makes the succession question increasingly unavoidable. For instance, in 2015 the Women’s League pushed for the re-establishment of a woman in the party presidium prior to the annual ZANU-PF conference, as part of the succession matrix, and for the conference to be elective. This was, and remains, contentious; but these and other succession-related issues may be raised again at the December 2016 conference. On the other hand, Mugabe, despite increased such challenges, remains the most authoritative figure within the party and government, and is the ‘glue’ holding together an increasingly fractious ZANU-PF. It is not clear whether, and to what extent, any successor to Mugabe could rebuild party unity.

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