Mnangagwa best person to steer Zimbabwe out its economic crisis says British think-tank

Meanwhile, however, even in a context of severe economic constraints – and despite some overlaps between party and government issues – the government continues to function, and is supported by a professional, albeit eroded, civil service. There is still an operational distinction between party and government, and the divisions in the party have not fully replicated themselves across the state.

Zimbabwe’s institutional capacity is fairly robust. Parliament remains an important nexus for bipartisan debate and scrutiny of elected officials. Despite its reputation as a rubber-stamp body, parliament has since 2009 – and particularly since 2014 – shown itself to be an institution where there is serious scrutiny of government policy by both opposition and ZANU-PF legislators. Cross-party portfolio committees, such as the finance and economic development committee, play an important role in holding the government to account. In June 2016, notably, RBZ Governor John Mangudya was robustly cross-examined by the committee regarding central bank policy, especially the planned introduction of the new bond notes.109

ZANU-PF

At 92, Robert Mugabe remains the dominant force within ZANU-PF, and while he has tacitly endorsed the reform agenda, and has supported those leading it, investors often see his rhetoric as ambiguous. As uncertainty increases concerning the ageing president’s state of health, the lack of a designated successor means that a political crisis may be on the horizon. Succession is off-limits in official ZANU-PF discourse, and few within the party’s ranks have dared to raise the issue openly.

The result has been a descent into factionalism, as different groups vie for post-Mugabe control. A notable outcome of the rivalry hitherto has been the purging from the party of the former vice-president Joice Mujuru and her followers.  Attempts to attract investors are hampered by the lack of apparent planning for Zimbabwe’s post-Mugabe political leadership, and a prolonged succession battle could be extremely risky, not just for the party, but also for the country.

Intra-party factionalism threatens the country’s economic reform process, and has opened deep ideological schisms within ZANU-PF. Vice-President Emmerson Mnangagwa is seen by many as a likely successor to Mugabe; he is working with finance minister Chinamasa and RBZ Governor Mangudya on IFI re-engagement, so the expectation is that he would continue on this pathway.

He is seen as possibly offering the best prospects for a stable transition out of the economic crisis, provided he works with others in opposition and civil society. However, he is not widely popular, and has a difficult legacy associated with Gukurahundi. Mnangagwa has strong liberation war credentials, and has forged close links with the military and the War Veterans. He could be pivotal in trying to heal the emerging divide between the War Veterans and their patron Mugabe. But there are no guarantees that Mnangagwa will succeed; and if he were to come to power his economic policy choices would likely be constrained by continued ideological and political power struggles within ZANU-PF. The political fate of Mnangagwa’s predecessor, Joice Mujuru, within the party’s intricate internal politics serves as a salutary reminder that no one in ZANU-PF is assured the party leadership after Mugabe.

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