Directors of South African foundation that predicted Chamisa will win this year’s elections write “a playbook to unseat liberation movements”

This was in spite of the MPLA making it very difficult, including effectively preventing external polling and being the only source of authority in the rural areas, and a massively inflated voters’ roll “which had 3 million dead people on it, some of whom had been dead for 25 years”, says Costa.

But while Unita’s efforts, he admits, may have been enough to win the election, they were insufficient to prevent the victory from being taken away. “At 10.30 in the evening, the internet was simply turned off. Then when the results came out, we went from having a 60%-plus lead to being under 45%.”

The lessons from Unita, and the Movement for Democratic Change (now the CCC — the Citizens Coalition for Change) in Zimbabwe, is that you have to recognise that the ruling party won’t go easily, and that you have to win big enough that the rigging would be so extreme that even the shameless inside and outside would notice.

A good strategy requires you to:

• Protect the vote;
• Develop a communications network independent of the government;
• Get civil society and at least a segment of the armed forces onside;
• Promote a narrative of change and of victory;
• Reduce the fear of retribution by offering a way for the corrupt to pay back their stolen money, thus ensuring that the elites won’t adopt radical tactics to stay put; and
• Build a youth movement worthy of the legend.

You need the confidence, Costa notes, “not to use violence, which only begets more violence by the state”. You also need to build a common front with other opposition movements under a single flag, which Unita largely managed; and finally, to make common cause with regional opposition movements.

The latter can help reduce costs through joint procurement and economies of scale, ensure a degree of diplomatic protection for when things go wrong in being a counter to what governments do all the time — protect each other — and help with fundraising, the lifeblood of any campaign.

But, finally, don’t expect that outsiders will help you, even though lobbying for your cause remains important.

Do all this, and actually win a majority of the vote, and there is a strong chance of unseating a southern African incumbent. 

By Greg Mills and Ray Hartley of The Brenthurst Foundation for the Daily Maverick

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