Can Chamisa break the MDC election jinx?

The 2018 elections were more exciting.  Party presidential candidate Nelson Chamisa lost to new ZANU-PF leader Emmerson Mnangagwa polling 2 151 927 votes against Mnangagwa’s 2 456 010. What was more interesting, however, was the gap between Chamisa and his legislators. They polled 1 624 875 a whopping 527 052 votes fewer than Chamisa.

Throughout the party’s history, the party leader has always outpolled his legislators even in 2008 when the party won more parliamentary seats than ZANU-PF but the gap between Chamisa and his party was so huge that it gave credence to the talk that some people in the other parties that contested the elections voted for their local MP but not the presidential candidate.

The gap between Mnangagwa and his legislators was not that wide. ZANU-PF polled 2 477 708, a difference of just 22 000. The ZANU-PF leader has never won more votes than his legislators, even under former party leader Robert Mugabe, proving that the party is bigger than its leader.

The question is, can Chamisa break this jinx and win more votes than he did in 2018?

He could. But the party has faced one of its worst splits following the 2018 elections.

Some pundits have argued that the 2008 elections which the MDC were a protest vote to get rid of Mugabe because of the economic hardships people were facing, as has just happened in Zambia.

Zimbabwe was almost down to its knees in 2019 following Mnangagwa’s victory, but although the opposition, especially Chamisa’s deputy Tendai Biti, continues to see an economy in crisis, things have changed drastically since June last year. Mnangagwa is therefore banking on an improved economy to sail through.

Hichilema won on the youth vote. Chamisa too is banking on the youth but will the circumstances be the same?

Studies on Zimbabwe’s elections have shown that Zimbabwean voters have increasingly been putting their interests first.  It is no longer a case of: “Even if we put a baboon.., if you are ZANU-PF you vote for that baboon,” or: “Given a choice between a donkey and a ZANU-PF candidate, people would vote for the donkey.” Voters are asking, what is in it for them? What have you done for them since they voted for you?

What has Chamisa done for those who voted for him in 2018?

The same question is being asked of Mnangagwa. What has he done for those who voted for him in 2018 as well as for those who did not vote for him as he is now leader of the nation and not just ZANU-PF or those who voted for him?

The MDC Alliance has heaped all its current problems on Mnangagwa, accusing him of buying those who have left the party. If that is his modus operandi, and he has succeeded in dividing the opposition, what will stop him from buying the youths in 2023?

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