Zuma advisor said ANC could not do anything about Zimbabwe

African National Congress President Jacob Zuma’s advisor Mo Shaik said the international community should not expect Zuma to resolve the Zimbabwe crisis after the indecisive elections of 2008.

When a Pretoria embassy official mentioned that the extensive media coverage surrounding Movement for Democratic Change leader Morgan Tsvangirai’s 7 April meeting with Zuma gave the impression that Zuma was now the point man, Shaik said “anyone who believes that is stupid….What happens in Zimbabwe will depend on Mbeki”.

He added that the international community had unrealistic expectations.

“What do they want us to do? Send in troops? That’s simply not an option,” he said.

Full cable:

Viewing cable 08PRETORIA729, ZUMA ADVISOR TRIES TO LOWER EXPECTATIONS ON

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VZCZCXRO6456

PP RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN

DE RUEHSA #0729 0991504

ZNY CCCCC ZZH

P 081504Z APR 08

FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA

TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4066

INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN PRIORITY 5486

RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN PRIORITY 9713

RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 000729

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR P, AF, AF/S, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2018

TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM SF

SUBJECT: ZUMA ADVISOR TRIES TO LOWER EXPECTATIONS ON

ZIMBABWE

REF: PRETORIA 727

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Donald Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4(

b) and (d).

¶1. (C) On 08 April, ANC President Zuma advisor Mo Shaik told

PolOff that the international community should not expect ANC

President Jacob Zuma to resolve the Zimbabwe crisis. When

PolOff mentioned that the extensive media coverage

surrounding MDC Leader Morgan Tsvangirai’s 07 April meeting

with Zuma on 7 April gives the impression that Zuma is now

the point man, Shaik said “anyone who believes that is

stupid….What happens in Zimbabwe will depend on Mbeki.” He

also added that the international community had unrealistic

expectations. “What do they want us to do? Send in troops?

That’s simply not an option,” he said.

¶2. (C) Shaik, who said he discussed Zimbabwe at length with

Deputy Foreign Minister Aziz Pahad the evening before,

outlined three scenarios for Zimbabwe, at least two of which

would result in “chaos.” First, there could be a run-off

with either a legitimate MDC victory or a ZANU-PF victory

which will be rigged. In his opinion, however, a free and

fair election is not realistic and the international

community, “especially the US Government” should recognize

this. Second, Zimbabwe would “continue stumbling along,

declare a state of emergency, and keep Mugabe as President.”

Shaik said that this option is also unacceptable as it would

lead to anarchy. Last, Shaik reiterated his preferred plan

of action that MDC and ZANU-PF set up a government of

national unity without Mugabe (reftel).

¶3. (C) Shaik said that Zuma is steering Mbeki toward the idea

of a transitional government through DepForMin Pahad, DFA

Great Lakes Envoy Ambassador Kingsley Mamabolo, and others in

government (septel). Shaik said the most the ANC can do is

criticize Mugabe and that ANC Spokesperson (and former DFA

DDF for Africa: Multilateral) Jessie Duarte told him

yesterday that the ANC is ready to speak out. When asked

what leverage that would give Zuma, Shaik laughed, and said

“it won’t, and that’s the point.”   Shaik expects the

international community will give the ANC credit for speaking

out, but doing so will effectively eliminate the ANC as

potential negotiators given that ZANU-PF would then view them

as biased. Shaik also sees the removal of the ANC as a

potential negotiator as a way out for Zuma, whom he believes

is being set up by failure “by members of (US Government) who

do not want to see him become South Africa’s President.”

BOST

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