ZANU-PF knew how to fix the economy but….

The Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front knew what to do to fix the economy when it went into the doldrums but self-interest among the key insiders prevented the party from taking the needed reforms.

This was said by Eddison Zvobgo junior six years ago as the country’s economy continued to tumble.

Zvobgo said President Robert Mugabe was tired and had talked about leaving but he was concerned about giving up control and then being prosecuted by his successor as had occurred in Zambia and Malawi.

Full cable:

Viewing cable 06HARARE1375, ZANU-PF INSIDER ON MUGABE’S PLANS

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001375

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR S. HILL

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN

USAID FOR M. COPSON AND E. LOKEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2011

TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI

SUBJECT: ZANU-PF INSIDER ON MUGABE’S PLANS

Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell under Section 1.5 b/d

——-

Summary

——-

¶1. (C) ZANU-PF insider Eddie Zvogbo, Jr. told the Ambassador

November 14 that President Mugabe has talked about resigning

but is concerned that he may be prosecuted by his successors.

Zvobgo said if Mugabe clings to power too long a crisis

could develop as the economy continues to deteriorate. Young

ZANU-PF Turks, with whom Zvobgo is affiliated, are flexing

their muscles in an effort to wield more power but are not

yet prepared to revolt. The military has expressed concern

about the current situation but has been bought off for now

and is also not yet prepared to act. Zvobgo added that

longer-term the MDC remained popular and a threat to ZANU-PF

rule despite recent electoral defeats. The Ambassador

responded that the USG is not focusing on Mugabe but on what

comes next and how we can play a constructive role. End

Summary.

———————–

Mugabe Endgame Nearing?

———————–

¶2. (C) According to Zvogbo, Mugabe is tired and has talked

of leaving. Avenues could include establishing the office of

prime minister and giving that individual executive authority

while remaining president or leaving government altogether

but retaining control of the party structure. Zvobgo said,

however, that Mugabe is concerned about giving up control and

then being prosecuted by his successor, as occurred in

neighboring Zambia and Malawi.

¶3. (C) Zvogbo expressed concern that if Mugabe tries to hang

on too long there could be a crisis. ZANU-PF knows what to

do to fix the economy but the self-interest of key insiders

has prevented the party from taking the needed reforms.

Frustration with this policy drift is fueling discontent

among regime loyalists, including the “Young Turks” in

parliament with whom Zvobgo associates. That said, Mugabe is

the country,s first president and a liberation hero and

there is reluctance to force him out.

¶4. (C) The Ambassador referred to the common knowledge in

Zimbabwe that senior military leaders had urged the president

to step aside and noted that the military is not immune from

the economic melt down. Could they force him out? Zvogbo

responded that historically they have been bought off with

cars and farms. While the military has expressed concern

about the economic situation in Zimbabwe, they have not

opposed Mugabe. Mugabe at present can handle the military

but that could change and may be very different for his

successor.

¶5. (C) The Ambassador asked whether the December ZANU-PF

party conference was likely to provide clarification on

succession and when presidential elections will take place.

Zvogbo replied that clarity would alienate the faction not

anointed as successor. Therefore, it was in Mugabe,s

interest to delay decisions. Moreover, it,s still an

advantage for Mugabe to be politically indecisive. ZANU-PF

players try to curry favor with him while the president

remains the ultimate power broker.

————————–

Parliamentary Independence

HARARE 00001375 002 OF 002

————————–

¶6. (C) The Ambassador asked about the recent activity of

Parliamentary Portfolio Committees in investigating actions

of government ministries and calling ministers to testify.

Zvobgo responded that the Young Turks were also growing

impatient with the executive holding all the reins of power.

Zvogbo said the parliamentarians want to exercise power and

improve governance.

¶7. (C) Zvogbo said the executive branch, embarrassed by

revelations of government misconduct, was beginning to push

back and that Parliamentary speaker John Nkomo is in a

&tricky8 position, on the one hand charged with presiding

over parliament, on the other expected to protect the

government. The Ambassador said that to his mind, this was a

positive development that perhaps indicated ZANU-PF has the

capacity for renovation. When change occurs, ZANU-PF

moderates can participate or even take the lead.

———————–

On the recent elections

———————–

¶8. (C) Commenting on the recent rural council elections,

Zvogbo said low turnout was the key factor in the result.

This was in large part due, he said, to the fact that people

are discouraged at the lack of change. He noted the apathy

among ZANU-PF voters in his home province of Masvingo. He

said there remains a huge pool of potential support for the

MDC, which could threaten ZANU-PF,s hold on power in a free

and fair election.

———————

The USG*Looking Ahead

———————

¶9. (C) Zvogbo asked the Ambassador what USG plans are for

engagement with the government. The Ambassador replied that

there is no basis for bridge building with the present

regime. We’re concentrating on what comes next. The recent

ABAZ conference is an example of an effort to talk

constructively about what can be done in the transitional

period and beyond to rebuild Zimbabwe. We want to talk with

people in the business community, in ZANU-PF, and throughout

Zimbabwe about the future and how the USG can play a

constructive role. Zvogbo welcomed the Ambassador’s

comments. He added that USG food aid and HIV/AIDS assistance

continues to demonstrate the good will of the U.S. toward

Zimbabwe and is appreciated by the people if not the

government.

——-

Comment

——-

¶10. (C) Zvogbo, the son and namesake of Mugabe’s late Vice

President and nemesis, provided an inside look at ZANU-PF

that confirms other reports of unrest within the ruling

party. It appears increasingly the case that if Mugabe

continues to delay the inevitable, he may spark open dissent

in his own party. The December conference, or rather its

aftermath, could be critical in that regard. If, as

expected, Mugabe once again puts off any discussion of the

succession, we could see a spike in internal opposition with

unpredictable consequences.

DELL

(42 VIEWS)