ZANU-PF campaign of intimidation pays off

United States embassy officials still held the forlorn hope that Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change could pip Robert Mugabe of the Zimbabwe African National Union- Patriotic Front in the 2002 presidential elections but the figures were heavily skewed in favour of Mugabe.

Commenting on the preliminary results ambassador Joseph Sullivan said, it was too early to predict a winner because voting continued in Harare and Chitungwiza.

“It is also important to remember that these numbers are based on official government figures, which may differ vastly from the real voter turnout. The government, through these statistical releases and Information Minister Jonathan Moyo’s analyses on radio, has sought to build expectations for a large rural and small urban turnout.

“Our teams noticed massive voter turnouts in MDC strongholds on March 9, which raise questions about the reliability of the GOZ data. Nevertheless, should the data hold up on further review, it appears that the GOZ’s 6 month campaign of violence and intimidation, coupled with the calculated confusion wrought by decreasing urban polling stations, increasing rural stations, and conflicting information about the voter rolls, has proven successful.”

Full cable:

Viewing cable 02HARARE640, ZIMBABWE: PRELIMINARY VOTING STATISTICS FAVOR

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111257Z Mar 02

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——————7280C2 111350Z /38

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1172

INFO OAU COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000640

SIPDIS

PRETORIA FOR A/S KANSTEINER

NSC FOR JENDAYI FRAZER

AF FOR PDAS BELLAMY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/07

TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM ZI

SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: PRELIMINARY VOTING STATISTICS FAVOR

MUGABE

REF: HARARE 416

CLASSIFIED BY POL TDY AARON TARVER, REASON: 1.5 (B)

AND (D).

¶1. (C) SUMMARY. BASED ON OFFICIAL STATISTICS RELEASED

THUS FAR (WHICH WE HAVE NO WAY TO VERIFY), WE EXPECT

ZANU-PF TO CLAIM VICTORY IN THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL

ELECTIONS. TURNOUT TO DATE, EVEN IN AREAS WHERE VOTING

HAS BEEN TRUNCATED, HAS EXCEEDED JUNE 2000 LEVELS IN ALL

PROVINCES SAVE BULAWAYO. NEVERTHELESS, IT APPEARS LESS

THAN 60 PERCENT OF THOSE REGISTERED IN JANUARY TURNED UP

TO VOTE, AND AS WE PREDICTED EARLIER, A LOWER TURNOUT

FAVORS ZANU-PF. VOTER INCREASES FROM THE 2000

PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS WERE HIGHEST IN ZANU-PF

STRONGHOLDS IN MASHONALAND, LIKELY SUPPLEMENTED BY ZANU-

PF’S LAST-MINUTE REGISTRATION CAMPAIGN. HIGH TURNOUTS

IN MANICALAND AND MASVINGO MAY PRESENT THE ONLY REAL

WILD CARD. SIX MONTHS OF CONTINUOUS VIOLENCE AND

INTIMIDATION, COUPLED WITH THE DIFFICULTIES FACED BY

URBAN VOTERS, ARE THE ONLY REASONABLE EXPLANATIONS FOR

THE RELATIVELY LOW TURNOUT. END SUMMARY.

NUMBERS FAVOR MUGABE AND ZANU-PF

———————————

¶2. (C) OFFICIAL VOTING STATISTICS RELEASED THUS FAR

IMPLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE RULING ZANU-PF TO

DECLARE VICTORY ONCE VOTING HAS CONCLUDED IN THE MARCH

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. THE STATISTICS, BY PROVINCE,

ARE AS FOLLOWS:

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03       HARARE 00640 01 OF 02 111349Z

PROVINCE             VOTES       VOTES CAST   PERCENTAGE

IN 2000     IN 2002**   OF 2000

BULAWAYO             171,669     169,000     98%

HARARE*               394,073     415,000     105%

MANICALAND           272,909     363,000     133%

MASHONALAND CENTRAL   247,953     331,000     133%

MASHONALAND EAST     278,221     328,000     118%

MASHONALAND WEST     246,783     293,000     119%

MASVINGO             286,741     380,000     133%

MATEBELELAND NORTH   147,828     157,000     106%

MATEBELELAND SOUTH   159,579     165,000     103%

MIDLANDS             350,505     379,000     108%

PROVINCE             VOTERS     VOTES CAST   PERCENTAGE

REGISTERED IN 2002**

BULAWAYO             368,028     169,000     46%

HARARE***             882,176     415,000     47%

MANICALAND           658,694     363,000     55%

MASHONALAND CENTRAL   480,092    331,000     69%

MASHONALAND EAST     589,185     328,000     56%

MASHONALAND WEST     572,677     293,000     51%

MASVINGO             655,122     380,000     58%

MATEBELELAND NORTH   338,188     157,000     46%

MATEBELELAND SOUTH   343,993     165,000     48%

MIDLANDS             724,659     379,000     52%

*   INCLUDES CHITUNGWIZA.

**   THROUGH MARCH 10 AT 5 P.M.

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04       HARARE 00640 01 OF 02 111349Z

*** VOTING CONTINUES HAPHAZARDLY.

¶3. (C) WE PREDICTED THAT WITH A 60 PERCENT TURNOUT, MDC

LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI WOULD WIN THE PRESIDENTIAL

ELECTION, ALBEIT BY A NARROW MARGIN. NUMBERS DO NOT

QUITE REACH THAT PERCENTAGE LEVEL, HOWEVER. CURRENT

NUMBERS SHOW SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 53% OF REGISTERED VOTERS

TURNED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH 5 P.M. ON MARCH 10.

HIGHER PERCENTAGES IN ZANU-PF STRONGHOLDS

——————————————

¶4. (C) MORE IMPORTANTLY, FROM THESE NUMBERS, IT APPEARS

THAT THE HIGHEST VOTER TURNOUTS OCCURRED IN TRADITIONAL

ZANU-PF STRONGHOLDS, THE MASHONALAND PROVINCES. EACH

PROVINCE HAD WELL OVER 50% OF ELIGIBLE VOTERS TURN OUT,

FOR AN OVERALL VOTING TURNOUT AVERAGE OF 58% OF TOTAL

REGISTERED VOTERS. MOREOVER, THE MASHONALAND PROVINCES

EXPERIENCED THE LARGEST INCREASE IN OVERALL VOTERS,

APPROXIMATELY 179,000 VOTERS. WE ATTRIBUTE THIS

INCREASE TO ONE OR BOTH OF TWO FACTORS: 1) A SUCCESSFUL

EFFORT BY ZANU-PF TO GET OUT LOYAL SUPPORTERS, AND 2)

STUFFED BALLOT BOXES BY THE RULING PARTY IN THIS LARGELY

NO-GO AREA FOR THE MDC.

CONFIDENTIAL

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——————7280AC 111349Z /38

O 111257Z MAR 02

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1173

INFO OAU COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000640

SIPDIS

PRETORIA FOR A/S KANSTEINER

NSC FOR JENDAYI FRAZER

AF FOR PDAS BELLAMY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/07

TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM ZI

SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: PRELIMINARY VOTING STATISTICS FAVOR

MUGABE

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02       HARARE 00640 02 OF 02 111349Z

TURNOUT IN MDC STRONGHOLDS LOWER THAN EXPECTED

——————————————— —

¶5. (C) THE MOST SURPRISING THING REFLECTED IN OFFICIAL

STATISTICS IS THE LOWER-THAN-EXPECTED TURNOUT IN

EXPECTED MDC STRONGHOLDS, ESPECIALLY IN BULAWAYO, THE

ONLY PLACE WHERE VOTER TURNOUT IS LOWER THAN IN THE JUNE

2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. WE EXPECT THAT ONCE

VOTING RECOMMENCES IN HARARE, THOSE NUMBERS WILL HEAVILY

FAVOR THE MDC. PRESENTLY, OVERALL VOTER TURNOUT IN MDC

STRONGHOLDS IS AROUND 48.36%, WELL BELOW THAT PROJECTED.

AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY, A SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF THIS

DECLINE IS EXPLAINED BY THE GOZ DECISION TO PROVIDE A

REDUCED NUMBER OF POLLING PLACES IN A COMPLEX DOUBLE AND

TRIPLE-TIER ELECTION.

MASVINGO AND MANICALAND ONLY WILDCARDS

—————————————

¶6. (C) THE ONLY OTHER PROVINCES WITH MORE THAN 50

PERCENT VOTER TURNOUT WAS IN MANICALAND AND MASVINGO,

WHERE 55% AND 58%, RESPECTIVELY, OF THOSE REGISTERED

TURNED OUT TO VOTE. MANICALAND SPLITS APPROXIMATELY 60-

40 FAVORING THE MDC OVER THE RULING ZANU-PF. THE ZANU-

PF CANNOT AT PRESENT LAY CLAIM TO ITS HISTORICAL

STRONGHOLD IN MASVINGO HOWEVER, DUE TO THE WELL-

PUBLICIZED DISPUTE BETWEEN ZANU-PF STRONGMAN EDDISON

ZVOBGO AND PRESIDENT MUGABE. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS

THAT ZVOBGO ENERGIZED HIS SUPPORTERS TO GET OUT AND

VOTE, BUT FOR TSVANGIRAI INSTEAD OF MUGABE. EVEN SO,

ZVOBGO NEVER EXPECTED THE MDC TO DO MORE THAN SPLIT THE

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03       HARARE 00640 02 OF 02 111349Z

MASVINGO VOTE.

COMMENT

——–

¶7. (C) IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT A WINNER, AS

VOTING CONTINUES IN HARARE AND CHITUNGWIZA. IT IS ALSO

IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THESE NUMBERS ARE BASED ON

OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT FIGURES, WHICH MAY DIFFER VASTLY

FROM THE REAL VOTER TURNOUT. THE GOVERNMENT, THROUGH

THESE STATISTICAL RELEASES AND INFORMATION MINISTER

JONATHAN MOYO’S ANALYSES ON RADIO, HAS SOUGHT TO BUILD

EXPECTATIONS FOR A LARGE RURAL AND SMALL URBAN TURNOUT.

OUR TEAMS NOTICED MASSIVE VOTER TURNOUTS IN MDC

STRONGHOLDS ON MARCH 9, WHICH RAISE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE

RELIABILITY OF THE GOZ DATA. NEVERTHELESS, SHOULD THE

DATA HOLD UP ON FURTHER REVIEW, IT APPEARS THAT THE

GOZ’S 6 MONTH CAMPAIGN OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION,

COUPLED WITH THE CALCULATED CONFUSION WROUGHT BY

DECREASING URBAN POLLING STATIONS, INCREASING RURAL

STATIONS, AND CONFLICTING INFORMATION ABOUT THE VOTER

ROLLS, HAS PROVEN SUCCESSFUL.

SULLIVAN

CONFIDENTIAL

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