Will Mnangagwa go against the trend in the region?

Angola has had only three presidents so far with the first President Agostino Neto ruling for only four years. His successor Jose Eduardo dos Santos was in power for 38 years before stepping down to allow Joao Lourenzo to take over. The ruling People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) has been in power since independence in 1975.

The South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO) has been in power since independence in 1990 but 4 people have changed the presidency. Sam Nunjoma was president for 15, followed by Hifikepunye Pohamba who served for 10 years. His successor Hage Geingob died in office after nine years in power and was replaced by his deputy Nangolo Mbumba.  Namibia is holding elections next month.

Botswana has had five presidents since independence in 1966. Sir Seretse Khama was president for 14 years and died in office. He was succeeded by his deputy Quett Masire who ruled for 18 years. Festus Mogae served 10 years followed by Ian Khama who also served 10 years before being replaced by Mokgweetsi Masisi. The Botswana Democratic Party has been in power since independence. 

The African National Congress has been in power since South Africa’s “independence” in 1994 but its first President Nelson Mandela served only one term and stepped down. The two presidents that followed him both completed their first term but failed to complete their second terms. Thabo Mbeki was forced to resign eight months before the end of his second term while Jacob Zuma stepped down 15 months before the end of his second term. Mbeki’s second term was completed by Kgalema Motlanthe who served only eight months. Cyril Ramaphosa took over from Zuma and won his own first full term in May 2019. He narrowly won his second term this year but was forced to enter into a government of national unity when the ANC failed to garner enough votes to form its own government.

The story has been quite different for Zambia and Malawi. Kenneth Kaunda of the United National Independence Party (UNIP) was president for 27 years. He was ousted by Frederick Chiluba of the opposition Movement for Multi-Party Democracy in 1991. Chiluba ruled for 10 years and was replaced by Levy Mwanawasa also of MMD. Mwanawasa died in office and his deputy Rupiah Banda took over but he was defeated by Michael Sata of the Patriotic Front. Sata, however, died in office with his deputy Guy Scott serving for only three months before handing over to Edgar Lungu. Lungu was in power for six years and was defeated by Hakainde Hichilema of the United Party for National Development. UNIP still exists but has been in limbo since 1991.

In Malawi founding President Hastings Kamuzu Banda was in power for 30 years under the Malawi Congress Party. He was removed by Bakili Muluzi of the United Democratic Front who served two terms. Bingu wa Mutharika took over but formed a new party the Democratic Progressive Party and was in power for eight years. He died in office and was replaced by his deputy Joyce Banda who ruled for two years and was replaced by Peter Mutharika, Bingu’s brother. Peter won elections for a second term but the results were nullified allowing Lazarus Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party to take over. The MCP was back in power after 26 years.

Zimbabwe has had only three presidents. The first was Canaan Banana, who was a ceremonial president with executive powers vested in the Prime Minister Robert Mugabe. Mugabe became executive President after the unity accord of 1987 and was forced to resign in November 2017. He was replaced by Emmerson Mnangagwa who is now serving his second term.

The quest by ZANU-PF to extend Mnangagwa’s term would therefore be going against the trend in the region. As Tshinga Dube said those pushing for the third term are doing so for their own personal interests. If Mnangagwa succumbs to the pressure, this could see Zimbabwe’s economy collapse instead of improving because those pushing for their own personal interests are on a looting spree. A third term would give them another five years to continue looting.

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