Why Zimbabwe’s military sticks with Mugabe

“ZANLA’s leaders also made a number of personnel changes, introducing new members with military experience into the ZANU War Council (the movement’s top strategic body) and using ZANU’s internal election system to remove or sideline politicians they did not trust. Over the years that followed, ZANU leaders granted ZANLA commanders a say in important decisions—from how to negotiate with the Smith government to which members should be included in ZANU’s central committee. In the post-independence era, this history of cooperation meant that former ZANLA commanders were more likely to trust political elites to protect the military’s interests.

“Finally, despite the influence they held over policymaking within ZANU, ZANLA’s commanders never managed to develop the sources of material wealth they would have needed to challenge their civilian counterparts. Perpetually harassed by a powerful counterinsurgency campaign, the guerrillas couldn’t secure large pieces of territory or impose taxes on them. Instead, the movement’s military wing depended on ZANU’s central committee, which for much of the war was led by civilian politicians in exile, for weaponry and funding. The rank and file turned to the local population only for basic support—food, shelter, and the like.

“When ZANLA’s commanders entered Zimbabwe’s military in the 1980s, then, most could not support themselves without the help of the civilian government. Over the decades that followed, that made ZANU-PF’s patronage system all the more powerful. By granting retired military officers positions in companies backed by the state, for example, Harare could reinforce their loyalty to the regime with a material sweetener.”

The magazine, however, says there are a number of forces that have the potential to break this equilibrium.

“The first is the prolonging of the government’s current cash crisis. The ideological and institutional bonds between Zimbabwe’s civilian and military elites will buy the government time, but Harare cannot avoid paying the security forces forever; in both June and July, it paid military salaries late. Unless the government secures more funding from external creditors soon, it could face unprecedented dissent in the military ranks.

“The next force is the passage of time. Over the next decade, most of the aging ZANLA veterans who serve in top posts in the ZDF will retire. As these former guerrillas step down from their positions, a new group of officers will take the helm of the nation’s security forces—and unlike their predecessors, they might be willing to accept civilian leaders who played no part in Zimbabwe’s civil war.

“And then there is the prospect of Mugabe’s death or retirement. On the one hand, a peaceful transition from the rule of the 92-year-old could open the door to greater political pluralism, the professionalization of the security sector, and the eventual insulation of the military from the influence of the ruling party.

“But if factionalism within ZANU-PF produces a violent succession struggle, ZDF officers might take sides in the intraparty conflict or even seize power themselves. Such a scenario could weaken the military’s subordination to its civilian counterparts and threaten the unity of Zimbabwe’s security forces for the first time in decades.”

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