Why opposition parties in southern Africa struggle to win power

Secondly, infighting and increasing fractionalisation may have further shaped public opinion about its viability as a party.

There’s a much more lopsided distribution of power and resources for opposition parties in countries with dominant governing parties than for those in competitive party systems.

This, coupled with a lack of governance experience, makes it difficult for opposition parties to be seen as credible alternatives.

Take the example of Botswana.

The Botswana Democratic Party, in power since independence in 1966, is the region’s most enduring dominant party.

It has even adopted the slogan “There is still no alternative”.

Although the party has been able to maintain a majority of parliamentary seats, its share of the popular vote declined to 46.7% in 2014, the lowest level of any of the dominant parties in the region.

Afrobarometer’s 2014 survey, which took place a few months before the election, showed that 44% of Batswana agreed that the political opposition presented a viable alternative vision and plan for the country.

In Botswana’s “winner-takes-all” electoral system, a large part of the opposition’s success in the 2014 election was due to three parties forming a coalition – the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC).

This reduced vote splitting.

A recent decision to expand the coalition to include the country’s remaining major opposition party, the Botswana Congress Party, has led to speculation about the chance of an opposition electoral victory in 2019.

Similarly, in South Africa, the opposition’s strong showing in the 2016 local elections has bolstered its optimism about its prospects in the 2019 national and provincial polls.

This success suggests that confidence in the political opposition may have grown since the 2015 Afrobarometer survey.

It could also reflect widespread dissatisfaction with the governing African National Congress and political institutions, leaders and performance on a range of key policy areas.

But public dissatisfaction with government performance doesn’t necessarily translate into perceptions that opposition parties could do a better job.

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