Why lockdowns might not be Africa’s best bet.

This is not to say that there are not susceptible groups in Africa. Though they make up less of overall populations, there are still many older people in African countries.

Meanwhile, there may be significant numbers of people who are more vulnerable to COVID-19 due to more widespread diseases of poverty such as TB, though this is not certain.

Nonetheless, the best policies for countries with young populations may not be lockdowns.

There may be better ways to save lives such as physically shielding and supporting the most vulnerable while allowing the wider population to gain immunity, whether through a vaccine when it arrives or by virtue of enough people catching and recovering from the virus itself.

Shielding the vulnerable could involve a mix of physical isolation, restrictions on their movement, and focused care, eventually by those who have recovered from the virus.

These measures will work best when based on local innovations appropriate to particular social contexts and designed with input from those involved. These could build on practices of respect for the elderly and community organising in many African settings.

Countries – and even regions within them – vary enormously in terms of age profiles, health systems, living conditions, economic resilience, and much more.

In some places, including in Africa, lockdowns may be the best policy on balance. In other areas, including even in the likes of Europe and America, there may be more appropriate alternatives to lockdown. It is unlikely, however, that a one-size-fits-all approach serves everyone’s interests equally.

Today, some version of the lockdown has become most countries’ response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

In years to come, we may look back on this moment as one in which an ideological practice emanating from older and wealthier countries was misguidedly “copy and pasted” by elites in younger and poorer societies, leading to marginal benefits in tackling the coronavirus but with the effect of increasing poverty and mortality among the poor.

By James Fairhead & Melissa Leach for African Arguments

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