Violence spreads

There was a massive surge in violence primarily in rural areas to intimidate voters ahead of an anticipated second round of voting, two weeks after the March 2008 elections, despite the fact that the results for the presidential elections had not yet been released.

According to the United States embassy opposition parties and human rights groups had reported a massive surge in political violence orchestrated by regime insiders, including cabinet ministers and senior military and police officers.

The report said soldiers, police, war veterans, and youth militia had been deployed primarily, but not exclusively, to rural areas to intimidate the electorate and punish opposition supporters ahead of an anticipated second round of voting for the presidency.

The public was being forced to attend daily ZANU-PF rallies throughout Mashonaland East and West, Masvingo, and Manicaland provinces, which had been ZANU-PF strongholds where the opposition had made significant gains, to hear threats of more violence and a return to “war” if they did not support Mugabe.

Since the 29 March elections, a total of 176 victims of post-election violence had required medical treatment -including 43 new cases. Thirty-one white commercial farmers had been driven off their farms since the elections out of 128 farms under varying degrees of siege.

The High Court had dismissed, with costs, an MDC appeal to compel Zimbabwe Electoral Commission to release the results of the presidential vote.

Full cable:

Viewing cable 08HARARE345, ZIM NOTES April 17, 2008

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E.O.12958: N/A

TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM ECON ZI

SUBJECT: ZIM NOTES April 17, 2008

————-

¶1. SUMMARY

————-

Topics of the week:

– Still No Election Results, Court Rebuffs Opposition Demand

– Post-Election Violence Spreads, One Confirmed Death

– Scores of Opposition Arrested

– An Analytic Note On Violence

– Opposition “Stay-In” a Flop

– UN Security Council Deliberates Over Zimbabwe

– USAID, UN, And NGOs Planning For Potential Emergency Response-

– Court rules in favor of journalists

– Public Blames ZANU-PF And Sanctions For Dire State Of Economy

– The Indigenization and Economic Empowerment Bill Apparently In

Effect

– Tax Man Backs Down

– Heavy Industry Down

– Cotton Season Underway

– The High Cost of Travel (or of Emigration)

——————————

¶2. Price Movements-Exchange Rate

and Selected products

——————————

Parallel rate for cash shot to ZW$82million:US$1; bank transfer

rate: Z$105 million; official rate: ZW$30,000:US$1

Sugar more than doubled to Z$200 million/2kg vs. controlled price of

Z$8million/2kg

*Cooking oil nearly doubled to Z$200 million/750ml vs. controlled

price of Z$9.3million/750ml

Petrol and diesel soared to Z$120 million/liter vs. controlled price

of Z$60,000/liter

—————————–

On the Political/Social Front

—————————–

¶3. Still No Election Results, Court Rebuffs Opposition Demand…

Almost three weeks since elections, the Zimbabwe Electoral

Commission (ZEC) has yet to release the results of the presidential

ballot. In addition, the High Court on April 14 dismissed, with

costs, an MDC appeal to compel ZEC to release the results. It also

deferred a ruling that would put a stop to the ZEC’s plans to

recount results in 23 constituencies – 16 of which the opposition

had won. At an April 14 press conference, the MDC reiterated its

position that it had defeated Mugabe outright and would not

participate in a runoff nor would it recognize a recount.

¶4. Post-Election Violence Spreads, One Confirmed Death…

Opposition parties and human rights groups have reported a massive

surge in political violence orchestrated by regime insiders,

including cabinet ministers and senior military and police officers.

Soldiers, police, war veterans, and youth militia have been

deployed primarily, but not exclusively, to rural areas to

intimidate the electorate and punish opposition supporters ahead of

an anticipated second round of voting for the presidency. The

public has been forced to attend daily ZANU-PF rallies throughout

Mashonaland East and West, Masvingo, and Manicaland provinces

(formally ZANU-PF strongholds where the opposition has made

significant gains) to hear threats of more violence and a return to

“war” if they do not support Mugabe. Civil society members,

particularly those who acted in election observations, are also the

target of intimidation and violence.

HARARE 00000345 002 OF 004

Since March 29, a total of 176 victims of post-election violence

have required medical treatment – including 43 new cases in last 48

hours. More than 30 of these victims have required hospitalization

for serious injuries. Injuries range from deep tissue damage as a

result of prolonged beatings with blunt objects to fractures and

abrasions; several of the victims exhibit multiple fractures to the

hands and arms typical of defensive injuries. There has been one

confirmed death of an MDC-Tsvangirai party activist beaten by

ZANU-PF supporters. The pattern of attacks and escalating rhetoric

is similar to campaigns unleashed in 2000 and 2002. See Harare

¶331.

As of last weekend, 31 white commercial farmers had been driven off

their farms since the elections out of 128 farms under varying

degrees of siege, according to the Commercial Farmers’ Union.

Seventeen of the 31 abandoned farms are located in Centenary in

Mashonaland Central province.

¶5. Scores of Opposition Arrested…   Zimbabwe Lawyer for Human

Rights (ZLRH) reported today that at least 99 opposition members and

supporters had been arrested or reported missing in the past 48

hours – most in Harare, but some in the Bindura and Mt. Darwin areas

as well. Initial reports indicate that suspected central

intelligence officers identifying themselves as plain clothes police

took many of the individuals from their homes. Family members have

reported other opposition activists missing. ZLHR lawyers have been

camped out at Harare Central police station for the past two days

trying to identify and gain access to the detainees.

¶6. An Analytic Note On Violence… As noted above, violence has

surged. We do not see a situation similar to Kenya occurring. The

violence is systematic, controlled, and orchestrated at the highest

levels of ZANU-PF and is targeted against regime opponents. Unlike

in Kenya, it is not ethnic in nature and is not spontaneous. We see

no evidence of the opposition planning to respond violently; in fact

the opposition MDC has continued to preach non-violence.

¶7. Opposition “Stay-In” a Flop… The MDC attempted an organized

“stay-in,” urging regime opponents to stay at home until election

results were announced. The action was poorly organized and many

people were unaware of it. Even among people who were aware of it,

there were few supporters; most people are just concerned with

getting by and finding food on a day to day basis. Business has

continued as usual in Harare.

¶8. UN Security Council Deliberates Over Zimbabwe… In a summit

convened on April 16 by the present chair of the UN Security Council

– South Africa – to discuss how the UN and AU can act to further

peace and security, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon said, “The

government and its supporters must desist immediately from violence

and intimidation, act with restraint, respect human rights, and

allow the electoral process to continue unfettered.”   US Ambassador

to the UN Zalmay Khalilzad expressed the grave concern of the United

States about the escalating politically-motivated violence

perpetrated by security forces and ruling party militias that target

opposition supporters in rural areas. Under headlines “Hands off

Zim, UN told,” The Herald reported today that Tanzanian President

Kikwete assured the summit that “SADC was taking care of the

situation in Zimbabwe.”

¶9. USAID, UN, And NGOs Planning For Potential Emergency Response…

With violence escalating, humanitarian organizations are readying

plans for a potential rapid response. The UN Country Team Crisis

Group is meeting daily, and the UN Inter-Agency Standing Committee

(IASC) is meeting weekly. The IASC Contingency Plan is up-to-date,

and an Emergency Relief Supply and Capacity Matrix maps out

humanitarian organizations, resources, and vulnerabilities in the

country. Strong partners, including the International Organization

for Migration, a consortium of NGOs, and the International Committee

HARARE 00000345 003 OF 004

of the Red Cross, have in-country and regional support capacity to

carry out emergency programs should the need arise. However, their

field presence is currently limited, reducing access to affected

populations and information. Other concerns are lack of Ministry of

Health capacity, the shortage of essential drugs and health care

commodities, and inadequate communications networks. Post will

continue to monitor developments and provide further updates as they

become available. See Harare 343

¶10. Court Rules In Favor Of Journalists… Harare Magistrate

Gloria Takundwa this week threw out the case against American

citizen journalist Barry Bearak of the New York Times and British

freelance journalist Stephen Bevan. Both had been arrested two

weeks ago and accused of practicing journalism without

accreditation. Their lawyer, Beatrice Mtetwa, a frequent defender

of journalists and media rights in Zimbabwe, argued in a pre-trial

hearing that the case, originally thrown out by the Attorney

General’s office the day after the arrests, had no merit, as

practicing journalism without accreditation in Zimbabwe is no longer

illegal under the newly amended Access to Information and Protection

of Privacy Act (AIPPA). Furthermore, journalists can only be

prosecuted on the recommendation of a statutory Media Council which

has not yet been established. After prosecutors failed to show up

to the pre-trail hearing, the Magistrate stated that “the State

dismally failed to prove” its case. She also reprimanded police for

having unlawfully detained the two journalists after the Attorney

General had ruled there was insufficient evidence for a chargeable

offense.

¶11. Public Blames ZANU-PF And Sanctions For Dire State Of

Economy… A national survey by the Mass Public Opinion Institute

in December, 2007 revealed greater pessimism over the state of the

economy than a year ago and a marked increase in the number of

respondents blaming ZANU-PF for the decline, especially in rural

areas. Urban respondents, on the other hand, blamed “sanctions”

firstly. Remittances played a significant role in paying for food

and healthcare, especially among the aged. The survey found little

support for the government’s price blitz but a slight majority of

respondents favored further indigenization of the economy. See

Harare 324. On that note:

————————–

Economic and Business News

————————–

¶12. The Indigenization and Economic Empowerment Bill Apparently In

Effect… The Indigenization and Economic Empowerment Bill, which

was officially published after being signed by President Robert

Mugabe last month but without implementing regulations, was

republished today with a statement that it is now in effect. There

are still no implementing regulations, but Mugabe can be expected to

state at tomorrow’s independence day celebration that legislation is

now in effect that will give Zimbabweans control over their

resources, and he will undoubtedly use this as campaign propaganda

in a runoff election.

¶13. Tax Man Backs Down… Following an outcry over punitive new tax

brackets, the GOZ backed down this week and lowered the tax rate on

top earners from 60% back down to 47.5%. In addition, it announced

that income tax would kick in at Z$1 billion (25% rate) annual

earnings, not at the Z$300 million threshold that had triggered a

widespread outcry from labor unions and workers. The minimum wage

for most sectors is Z$2.5 billion (roughly US$33 gross pay/month).

¶14. Heavy Industry Down… Sales volume at Astra Industries Ltd, an

engineering and construction firm that also manufactures protective

coatings, paints, and steel parts, declined 34% in the six months to

end-February 2008 compared to the same period last year. The steel

HARARE 00000345 004 OF 004

division, however, had 15% higher sales volume mainly due to

GOZ-subsidized farm mechanization projects.

Apex Corporation of Zimbabwe last week announced plans to open a

foundry, its core business, in Kitwe, Zambia. CEO George Khumala

said demand was strong in Zambia and he expected the Zambian

operation to spur exports to the DRC and Malawi. Driving the

decision were the local difficulties in procuring raw materials

(especially pig iron and coke) and electricity, waning local demand,

and the challenge of retaining labor in Zimbabwe. Khumala also

bemoaned the punitive rate of forex retention by the Reserve Bank

and its stranglehold on the company’s own earned foreign exchange.

¶15. Cotton Season Underway… Premature boll splitting of a

sizeable portion of the cotton crop has propelled the cotton season

off to an earlier start than expected, according to Cargill Cotton

Zimbabwe Managing Director Priscilla Mutembwa. She said it could

also result in a reduction in the crop size below the

300,000-320,000 MT that Cargill had anticipated. Seed cotton

production was 260,000 MT in 2006 and 270,000 MT in 2007. Cotton is

a major forex earner for Zimbabwe.

¶16. The High Cost Of Travel (Or Of Emigration)… The Herald

reported a jump in the fee for an ordinary adult passport from Z$5

million to Z$500 million, while a passport processed within three

working days now costs Z$800 million. The Registrar General’s

office, however, told an embassy consular assistant who called

anonymously to confirm the new fees that the cost of an adult

passport issued within five working was now US$220.

MCGEE

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