The United States embassy felt that the Movement for Democratic Change should not accommodate people like Saviour Kasukuwere and Phillip Chiyangwa if its leader Morgan Tsvangirai won the 2002 presidential elections because they had used violence to win their seats.
The embassy said this in a commentary after talking to Tsvangirai’s special assistant Gandi Mudzingwa who told the embassy that Tsvangirai would not dissolve parliament if he won but would just focus on the 30 unelected seats to add to the MDC’s 56 so that the party could have a thin majority.
The embassy said avoiding the dissolution of parliament would allow Tsvangirai to portray himself as a new kind of leader committed to reducing the considerable powers that had accrued to the Zimbabwean presidency.
“On the other hand, there is no guarantee that the ten chiefs would vote with the MDC, and relying on 76 MPs always to toe the party line is risky,” the embassy said.
“It might also be difficult for an MDC government to justify to the Zimbabwean public allowing ZANU-PF MPs who employed violence and intimidation to ensure their own elections -such as Chinhoyi MP Philip Chiyangwa and Mount Darwin South MP Saviour “Mike Tyson” Kasukuwere- to retain their seats.”
Full cable:
Viewing cable 02HARARE315, MDC PLANNING FOR TRANSITION
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
051431Z Feb 02
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ9550
PAGE 01 HARARE 00315 01 OF 02 051446Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DINT-00 DODE-00
DOEE-00 DOTE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00
EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00
LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01
PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 TRSE-00
USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00
SWCI-00 /007W
——————624E54 051447Z /38
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0875
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000315
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER
PARIS FOR NEARY
LONDON FOR GURNEY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/12
SUBJECT: MDC PLANNING FOR TRANSITION
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS:
1.5 (B) AND (D).
SUMMARY
——-
¶1. (C) THE MDC HAS ESTABLISHED A FOUR-PERSON TEAM THAT IS QUIETLY
WORKING ON THE TRANSITION PERIOD, DRAWING UP AN ACTION PLAN FOR THE
FIRST 100 DAYS, AND DEVISING A LIST OF CANDIDATES FOR KEY
POSITIONS. IF ELECTED, MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI WOULD GIVE
THE FINANCE MINISTRY PORTFOLIO TO PROMINENT ZIMBABWEAN BUSINESSMAN
NIGEL CHANKIRA, WHILE MDC MP DAVID COLTART WOULD BE APPOINTED
JUSTICE MINISTER AND MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE HOME
AFFAIRS MINISTER. IN AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT, RULING PARTY
STALWART EDDISON ZVOBGO WOULD BE NAMED SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT IN
EXCHANGE FOR HIS ENDORSEMENT OF TSVANGIRAI TWO WEEKS BEFORE THE
ELECTION. TSVANGIRAI WOULD PREFER NOT TO DISSOLVE PARLIAMENT IF HE
WINS, BUT WOULD INSTEAD FOCUS ON THE 30 NON-ELECTED MPS, APPOINTING
HIS OWN PEOPLE TO 20 OF THOSE SLOTS AND EXPECTING THE REMAINING TEN
CHIEFS TO VOTE WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DAY. THE MDC BELIEVES IT
HAS MADE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS IN WINNING THE SUPPORT OF TRADITIONAL
LEADERS IN MASHONALAND CENTRAL AND MASHONALAND EAST — LONG A ZANU-
PF STRONGHOLD — AND BELIEVES IT CAN WIN 50 PERCENT OF THE VOTE IN
THE FORMER AND 42-43 PERCENT IN THE LATTER. THE LEVEL OF VIOLENCE
AGAINST MDC SUPPORTERS IS SUBSIDING IN MOST AREAS OF THE COUNTRY AS
THE GOZ ANTICIPATES THE ARRIVAL OF INTERNATIONAL ELECTION
OBSERVERS. END SUMMARY.
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 00315 01 OF 02 051446Z
MDC TRANSITION TEAM
——————-
¶2. (C) IN A FEBRUARY 5 CONVERSATION WITH POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF,
THE MDC PRESIDENT’S SPECIAL ADVISOR, GANDI MUDZINGWA, SAID THE MDC
HAS QUIETLY ESTABLISHED A FOUR-PERSON TRANSITION TEAM. THE GROUP
IS IDENTIFYING KEY ISSUES FOR THE OPPOSITION PARTY TO FOCUS ON
DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD, DRAWING UP A 100-DAY ACTION PLAN, AND
DEVISING A LIST OF INDIVIDUALS WHO COULD SERVE IN IMPORTANT
POSITIONS. THE TEAM IS LED BY IAN MAKONI, A LEADING HARARE
BUSINESSMAN; BRIAN RAFTOPOULOS, A FELLOW AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
ZIMBABWE’S INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES AND ONE OF THIS
COUNTRY’S MOST ASTUTE POLITICAL ANALYSTS; DR. RENEE LOWENSON, A
CONSULTANT WHO HAS WORKED WITH THE ZIMBABWE CONGRESS OF TRADE
UNIONS (ZCTU) FOR MORE THAN TEN YEARS AND WHO WAS “IMMENSELY”
HELPFUL IN SETTING UP THE MDC; AND DR. CHARLES HOVE, FORMERLY A
SENIOR OFFICIAL AT THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE NOW LECTURING IN
CONFLICT MANAGEMENT AT A SOUTH AFRICAN UNIVERSITY. MUDZINGWA WOULD
NOT BE DRAWN ON THE SUBSTANCE OF THE GROUP’S RECOMMENDATIONS TO
DATE, SAYING THEY ARE STILL VERY CLOSE HOLD.
MDC CABINET
———–
¶3. (C) ASKED WHETHER MDC PRESIDENT TSVANGIRAI HAS IDENTIFIED
INDIVIDUALS TO SERVE IN HIS CABINET, MUDZINGWA SAID SEVERAL
DECISIONS HAD BEEN MADE. NIGEL CHANAKIRA, CHAIRMAN OF KINGDOM
FINANCIAL HOLDINGS — ZIMBABWE’S MOST SUCCESSFUL INDIGENOUS
MERCHANT BANK — HAD AGREED TO ACCEPT THE FINANCE PORTFOLIO. MDC
MP AND HUMAN RIGHTS LAWYER DAVID COLTART WOULD BE APPOINTED JUSTICE
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 HARARE 00315 01 OF 02 051446Z
MINISTER, WITH ONE IMPORTANT PROVISO. COLTART HAS DONE A LOT OF
PREPARATORY WORK FOR ESTABLISHMENT OF A TRUTH AND JUSTICE
COMMISSION AND WAS DETERMINED TO SEEK RETRIBUTION AGAINST THOSE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ZIMBABWE’S CURRENT PLIGHT, ACCORDING TO MUDZINGWA.
TSVANGIRAI IS CONCERNED THAT HAVING A WHITE ZIMBABWEAN LEADING THIS
SIPDIS
EFFORT WOULD SEND ALL THE WRONG SIGNALS, SO HE HAS QUIETLY DECIDED
TO PLACE THE TRUTH AND JUSTICE COMMISSION UNDER PARLIAMENT’S
AUTHORITY. (N.B. PLEASE STRICTLY PROTECT THIS LATTER POINT.
TSVANGIRAI SHARED THIS INTENTION WITH MUDZINGWA IN CONFIDENCE AND
SIPDIS
HAS NOT YET HAD A CHANCE TO DISCUSS IT WITH COLTART.) WELSHMAN
NCUBE, THE MDC’S SECRETARY-GENERAL, A PROFESSOR OF CONSTITUTIONAL
LAW AND ONE OF THE PARTY’S INTELLECTUAL HEAVYWEIGHTS, WOULD LIKELY
SERVE AS THE MINISTER OF HOME AFFAIRS. ZANU-PF MP EDDISON ZVOBGO,
A LONGTIME RULING PARTY STALWART BUT STRONG CRITIC OF PRESIDENT
MUGABE, WOULD BE APPOINTED SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT. IN EXCHANGE,
ZVOBGO — WHO REMAINS VERY INFLUENTIAL IN THE SOUTHERN PROVINCE OF
MASVINGO — HAS UNDERTAKEN TO ANNOUNCE PUBLICLY TWO WEEKS BEFORE
THE ELECTION THAT HE WILL NOT VOTE FOR MUGABE, AND DECLARE THAT
MORGAN TSVANGIRAI IS THE CANDIDATE BEST ABLE TO RESTORE PEACE AND
PROSPERITY TO ZIMBABWE. (COMMENT: SUCH AN ENDORSEMENT COULD
ENSURE THAT MASVINGO — WHICH BOTH MAJOR PARTIES CONSIDER PIVOTAL
TO THE ELECTION OUTCOME AND WHOSE RESIDENTS ARE CURRENTLY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN THE TWO PARTIES — SWINGS FIRMLY INTO THE MDC CAMP.
END COMMENT.)
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ9553
PAGE 01 HARARE 00315 02 OF 02 051447Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00
DOTE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00 EUR-00
FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00
VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00
PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00
PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00
/006W
——————624E61 051448Z /38
P 051431Z FEB 02
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0876
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000315
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER
PARIS FOR NEARY
LONDON FOR GURNEY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 00315 02 OF 02 051447Z
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/12
SUBJECT: MDC PLANNING FOR TRANSITION
NOT NECESSARY TO DISSOLVE PARLIAMENT
————————————
¶4. (C) ASKED WHETHER TSVANGIRAI WOULD DISSOLVE PARLIAMENT UPON
ASSUMING POWER, MUDZINGWA SAID SUCH A STEP WOULD BE UNNECESSARY.
HE NOTED THAT THE MDC CURRENTLY HOLDS 56 SEATS IN THE 150-SEAT
PARLIAMENT. INSTEAD OF CALLING A NEW ELECTION, TSVANGIRAI WOULD
FOCUS ON THE 30 UNELECTED SEATS. HE WOULD COUNT ON THE TEN CHIEFS
— WHO ARE SELECTED BY OTHER CHIEFS — TO SUPPORT THE GOVERNMENT OF
THE DAY, WHILE REPLACING THE EIGHT GOVERNORS AND 12 NON-
CONSTITUENCY MEMBERS WHO ARE APPOINTED DIRECTLY BY THE PRESIDENT.
ADDING THOSE TWENTY SEATS TO THE 56 THE MDC ALREADY HOLDS WOULD
GIVE THE PARTY A RAZOR-THIN MAJORITY. IN ADDITION, THE PARTY WOULD
CONTINUE TO PRESS THE COURTS TO HEAR EXPEDITIOUSLY THE PENDING
LEGAL CHALLENGES OF ZANU-PF VICTORIES IN 28 CONSTITUENCIES IN THE
JUNE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. (COMMENT: AVOIDING THE
DISSOLUTION OF PARLIAMENT WOULD ALLOW TSVANGIRAI TO PORTRAY HIMSELF
AS A NEW KIND OF LEADER COMMITTED TO REDUCING THE CONSIDERABLE
POWERS THAT HAVE ACCRUED TO THE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENCY. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THE TEN CHIEFS WOULD VOTE
WITH THE MDC, AND RELYING ON 76 MPS ALWAYS TO TOE THE PARTY LINE IS
RISKY. IT MIGHT ALSO BE DIFFICULT FOR AN MDC GOVERNMENT TO JUSTIFY
TO THE ZIMBABWEAN PUBLIC ALLOWING ZANU-PF MPS WHO EMPLOYED VIOLENCE
AND INTIMIDATION TO ENSURE THEIR OWN ELECTIONS — SUCH AS CHINHOYI
MP PHILIP CHIYANGWA AND MOUNT DARWIN SOUTH MP SAVIOUR “MIKE TYSON”
KASUKUWERE — TO RETAIN THEIR SEATS. END COMMENT.)
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 00315 02 OF 02 051447Z
TRADITIONAL LEADERS SHIFTING THEIR ALLEGIANCES?
——————————————— —
¶5. (C) MUDZINGWA REPORTED THAT TSVANGIRAI HAS BEEN MEETING
DISCREETLY WITH TRADITIONAL LEADERS FROM MASHONALAND, LONG A RULING
PARTY STRONGHOLD. IN THE MOST RECENT GATHERING — IN HARARE THE
WEEK OF JANUARY 28 — A MAJORITY OF THE TRADITIONAL LEADERS FROM
MASHONALAND CENTRAL PROVINCE TOLD TSVANGIRAI THEY WOULD NOT VOTE
FOR MUGABE IN THE UPCOMING ELECTION OR TELL THEIR CONSTITUENTS TO
DO SO. THE INROADS TSVANGIRAI HAS MADE WITH TRADITIONAL LEADERS IN
A REGION THAT HAS BEEN DECLARED OFF-LIMITS TO THE OPPOSITION PARTY
— BY WAR VETERANS AND ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS — HAS BUOYED THE MDC’S
HOPES THAT IT CAN WIN APPROXIMATELY 50 PERCENT OF THE VOTE IN
MASHONALAND CENTRAL AND 42-43 PERCENT IN MASHONALAND EAST. ASKED
WHETHER HE WAS ALSO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT MASHONALAND WEST, MUDZINGWA
DEMURRED, SAYING THAT PROVINCE WAS MORE “PROBLEMATIC.” (COMMENT:
ZANU-PF HAS EXERTED CONSIDERABLE PRESSURE ON TRADITIONAL LEADERS —
WHO ARE ON THE GOVERNMENT PAYROLL — TO GET THEIR CONSTITUENTS TO
THE POLLING STATIONS ON ELECTION DAY. IF THE TRADITIONAL LEADERS
IN MASHONALAND CENTRAL MAKE GOOD ON THEIR PLEDGE — AND IF THE
SENTIMENTS THEY REPORTEDLY EXPRESSED TO TSVANGIRAI ARE SHARED BY A
GROWING NUMBER OF THEIR COUNTERPARTS IN OTHER REGIONS — MUGABE
COULD BE IN SERIOUS TROUBLE. THE MDC HAS CONSISTENTLY TOLD US THAT
IT NEEDS TO GET BETWEEN 30-40 PERCENT OF THE VOTE IN MASHONALAND TO
WIN. ANYTHING HIGHER THAN THAT WOULD LIKELY BE ICING ON THE CAKE.
END COMMENT.)
VIOLENCE SUBSIDING
——————
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 HARARE 00315 02 OF 02 051447Z
¶6. (C) MUDZINGWA TOLD US THAT THE LEVEL OF GOZ-SANCTIONED VIOLENCE
AGAINST MDC SUPPORTERS HAD BEGUN TO DECLINE NOTICEABLY IN MANY
AREAS OF THE COUNTRY, ALTHOUGH SERIOUS INCIDENTS CONTINUED TO
OCCUR. (NOTE: THE MDC IS STILL INVESTIGATING RECENT REPORTS OF THE
KILLING OF THREE OF ITS SUPPORTERS AND THE ABDUCTIONS OF FOUR
OTHERS, AND WILL RELEASE DETAILS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.) SUCH A
GENERAL DECLINE WAS PREDICTABLE, MUDZINGWA SAID, AS THE GOZ IS
BACKING OFF IN PREPARATION FOR THE ARRIVAL OF INTERNATIONAL
ELECTION OBSERVERS. HE ADDED THAT THE MDC INTENDS WITHIN THE NEXT
WEEK TO SET UP AN ELECTION COMMAND CENTER, ONE OF WHOSE FUNCTIONS
WILL BE TO INFORM OBSERVER DELEGATIONS AND RESIDENT DIPLOMATIC
MISSIONS QUICKLY OF INCIDENTS OF VIOLENCE, INTIMIDATION, AND
ELECTORAL IRREGULARITIES.
SULLIVAN
CONFIDENTIAL
>
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