UNDP rep said ZANU-PF was on a suicidal path

Former United Nations Development Programme resident representative Victor Angelo told United States assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Walter Kansteiner in December 2001 that a growing number of people in the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front realised that the party was on a suicidal path but they were not willing to stand up to President Robert Mugabe.

He said policy was determined by a small group of hardliners who were energetic and vocal.

The group included: Information Minister Jonathan Moyo; Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa; Local Government Minister Ignatius Chombo; Police Commissioner Augustine Chihuri; Air Force commander Perence Shiri; and Charles Utete.

Asked whether the members of this group would cut Mugabe loose, Angelo said “yes, because they know the laws of human nature, that Mugabe will go sooner or later”.

He said the members of this group were primarily concerned with three issues: the election, succession, and protection of assets and from prosecution.

Unless these three issues were addressed, Angelo emphasised, “we will not see any change in the course of events in Zimbabwe”.

Full cable:

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140948Z Dec 01

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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0545

INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

AMEMBASSY OSLO

AMEMBASSY CANBERRA

AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM

AMEMBASSY KINGSTON

AMEMBASSY ABUJA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 HARARE 003730

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER

LONDON FOR GURNEY

PARIS FOR NEARY

NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/04/11

TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI

SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS MESSAGE OF SUPPORT TO

OPPOSITION AND CIVIL SOCIETY REPRESENTATIVES

REF: A) HARARE 3401 B) HARARE 3691 C) HARARE 3631

CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON.

REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D).

SUMMARY

——-

¶1. (C) DURING HIS DECEMBER 10-11 VISIT TO HARARE, AF

ASSISTANT SECRETARY MET WITH A RANGE OF INDIVIDUALS OUTSIDE

GOVERNMENT, INCLUDING MDC LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, SUPREME

COURT JUSTICE WILSON SANDURA, UNDP RESREP VICTOR ANGELO,

COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION (CFU) OFFICIALS, AND

REPRESENTATIVES OF HUMAN RIGHTS GROUPS AND OTHER NGOS.

KANSTEINER HEARD A CONSISTENT REFRAIN THAT ZIMBABWE’S

POLITICAL CRISIS AND ECONOMIC MESS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN

IN THE RUN-UP TO THE ELECTION AND THAT THE GOZ/ZANU-PF ARE

EMPLOYING A RANGE OF TACTICS TO INCREASE THEIR PROSPECTS IN

NEXT YEAR’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND LIMIT INTERNATIONAL

SCRUTINY OF THEIR ACTIONS. ON ZDERA, TSVANGIRAI RECOGNIZED

THE THREAT OF IMPOSING RESTRICTIONS ON THE RULING ELITE

COULD BE MORE EFFECTIVE THAN THE ACTION, BUT HE HOPED THE

USG WOULD IMPLEMENT AT LEAST ONE RESTRICTION TO DEMONSTRATE

THAT IT MEANS BUSINESS. A PROMINENT HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVIST

ASSERTED THAT, SINCE THE JUDICIARY HAS BEEN COMPROMISED,

ZIMBABWEANS NOW MUST COUNT ON THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

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PAGE 03       HARARE 03730 01 OF 05 141045Z

TO HOLD THE ZANU-PF LEADERSHIP ACCOUNTABLE FOR ITS ACTIONS.

UNDP RESREP REPORTED THAT WFP IS READY TO MOVE FORWARD WITH

HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE, BUT THE GOZ HAS NOT SIGNED THE

LETTER OF UNDERSTANDING BECAUSE IT DISAGREES WITH WFP’S

ANALYSIS OF THE CAUSES OF THE FOOD CRISIS, AND BECAUSE THE

TWO SIDES HAVE NOT AGREED ON THE DELIVERY MECHANISM. (NOTE:

THE LETTER OF UNDERSTANDING WAS SIGNED SUBSEQUENT TO THIS

MEETING.) END SUMMARY.

MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC)

————————————

¶2. (C) MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, ACCOMPANIED BY

DEPUTY SECRETARY-GENERAL GIFT CHIMANIKIRE AND ELECTIONS

DIRECTOR PAUL THEMBA-NYATHI, TOLD KANSTEINER THAT HIS PARTY

IS UNABLE TO CAMPAIGN IN CERTAIN AREAS OF THE COUNTRY,

PARTICULARLY MASHONALAND CENTRAL AND PARTS OF MASHONALAND

WEST. ASKED HOW THE MDC GOT ITS MESSAGE TO THE RESIDENTS

OF THOSE AREAS, TSVANGIRAI SAID SUPPORTERS GO IN UNDER THE

COVER OF NIGHT TO DISTRIBUTE PAMPHLETS, NOT, HE POINTED

OUT, AN APPROACH ONE WOULD EXPECT IN A DEMOCRATIC SYSTEM.

HE ADDED THAT THE BREAK BETWEEN THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

IN JUNE 2000 AND NEXT YEAR’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION HAS

ENABLED THE PARTY TO PENETRATE AREAS FORMERLY CLOSED TO IT,

AND GIVEN THEM TIME TO CONVINCE ZIMBABWEANS THAT THE ONLY

WAY TO STOP THE VIOLENCE IS TO VOTE OUT THE CURRENT

GOVERNMENT. TSVANGIRAI PREDICTED THAT THE MDC WOULD HAVE

LOST IF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION HAD BEEN HELD IN JUNE

¶2000. THE PARTY’S VICTORY IN THE CHEGUTU MAYORAL RACE IS A

GOOD EXAMPLE OF THE BENEFITS OF THAT BREAK IN THE ACTION,

AND PROVIDED A HUGE PSYCHOLOGICAL BOOST TO THE PARTY AND

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PAGE 04       HARARE 03730 01 OF 05 141045Z

ITS SUPPORTERS.

¶3. (C) TSVANGIRAI SAID THE CHALLENGE FOR THE MDC IS TO

STAY FOCUSED ON WINNING THE ELECTION AND NOT ALLOW ITSELF

TO BE DISTRACTED BY INTERNATIONAL INITIATIVES SUCH AS THE

SADC EFFORT WHICH, FROM THE GOZ PERSPECTIVE, ARE ONLY MEANT

TO BUY TIME. HE REPORTED THAT ZANU-PF ELDER STATESMAN

EDDISON ZVOBGO’S ESTRANGEMENT FROM MUGABE IS PROVING

HELPFUL TO THE MDC’S PROSPECTS IN PIVOTAL MASVINGO

PROVINCE. ASKED WHETHER ZVOBGO, WHO IS THE KINGMAKER IN

MASVINGO, IS TELLING HIS SUPPORTERS TO VOTE FOR THE MDC,

TSVANGIRAI SAID HE IS TELLING THEM TO GO AND VOTE, BUT NOT

SIPDIS

FOR MUGABE.

¶4. (C) THE MDC LEADER RAISED ZDERA, SAYING HE THOUGHT ITS

CONGRESSIONAL PASSAGE CAUGHT THE GOZ BY SURPRISE, AND KEY

LEADERS ARE IN A PANIC AT THE POSSIBILITY THEY MIGHT BE

TARGETED. HE RECOGNIZED THAT THE THREAT MAY BE MORE

EFFECTIVE THAN THE IMPOSITION, BUT HE THOUGHT IT MIGHT BE

NECESSARY FOR THE USG TO IMPLEMENT AT LEAST ONE RESTRICTION

IN ADVANCE OF THE ELECTION TO DEMONSTRATE THAT IT MEANS

BUSINESS. KANSTEINER RESPONDED THAT WE DO HAVE FLEXIBILITY

IN SELECTING WHOM WOULD BE TARGETED AND IN OUR CHOICE OF

EITHER TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS OR ASSET SEIZURE, OR BOTH. WHAT

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——————4B750D 141045Z /38

P 140948Z DEC 01

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0546

INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

AMEMBASSY OSLO

AMEMBASSY CANBERRA

AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM

AMEMBASSY KINGSTON

AMEMBASSY ABUJA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 05 HARARE 003730

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER

LONDON FOR GURNEY

PARIS FOR NEARY

NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02       HARARE 03730 02 OF 05 141045Z

E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/04/11

TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI

SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS MESSAGE OF SUPPORT TO

OPPOSITION AND CIVIL SOCIETY REPRESENTATIVES

THE USG WANTS TO AVOID, HOWEVER, IS GIVING MUGABE AN

EFFECTIVE RALLYING CRY. TSVANGIRAI SUGGESTED KANSTEINER

COULD LESSEN THAT RISK BY EMPHASIZING IN HIS PRESS

CONFERENCE LATER THAT DAY THAT ZDERA DOES NOT IMPOSE

SANCTIONS AGAINST THE ZIMBABWEAN PEOPLE, WHICH THE USG

CONTINUES TO HELP WITH SIGNIFICANT LEVELS OF ASSISTANCE.

¶5. (C) THEMBA-NYATHI URGED THE UNITED STATES TO COORDINATE

CLOSELY WITH ZIMBABWE’S SADC NEIGHBORS. WE ARE DOING THAT

ON SEVERAL LEVELS, KANSTEINER REPLIED. HE SAID HE HAD MET

AT UNGA WITH SADC FOREIGN MINISTERS, AND THAT ALL OF THEM,

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ANGOLA AND NAMIBIA, AGREED

WITH THE U.S. APPROACH TOWARD ZIMBABWE. PRESIDENTS BUSH

AND MBEKI HAD ALSO HAD A GOOD DISCUSSION ABOUT ZIMBABWE

AND, ON THE MARGINS, HE HAD PRESSED FM ZUMA ON THE

IMPORTANCE OF SOUTH AFRICA TAKING A MORE ACTIVE ROLE IN

ADDRESSING THE CRISIS CONSUMING ITS NORTHERN NEIGHBOR.

¶6. (C) TURNING TO THE ELECTORAL PROCESS, THEMBA-NYATHI

RECALLED MINISTER OF JUSTICE CHINAMASA’S STATEMENT IN

PARLIAMENT THAT THE GOZ DID NOT HAVE THE RESOURCES TO

PURCHASE TRANSLUCENT BALLOT BOXES BUT WOULD ACCEPT

DONATIONS FROM THE UNDP FOR THIS PURPOSE, AND HE URGED THAT

WE CALL CHINAMASA’S BLUFF. THE AMBASSADOR AGREED TO MAKE

SUCH AN OFFER TO THE UNDP (WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY OFFERED UNDP

FUNDING TO CHINAMASA). POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF RECALLED

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PAGE 03       HARARE 03730 02 OF 05 141045Z

THAT ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY COMMISSION (ESC) CHAIRMAN GULA-

NDEBELE HAD DEMONSTRATED A WILLINGNESS IN A RECENT MEETING

WITH US TO ACCEPT THE INPUT OF POLITICAL PARTIES. IF THE

ESC WAS SERIOUS ABOUT SUCH AN OFFER, TSVANGIRAI REJOINED,

IT WOULD INVITE PARTY REPRESENTATIVES TO SIT ON THE

COMMISSION. TWO ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS, THEMBA-NYATHI

COMMENTED, ARE THE ESC’S ABDICATION OF MUCH OF ITS

AUTHORITY TO THE PARTISAN REGISTRAR-GENERAL, AND THE

ELECTORAL ACT’S VESTING OF TOO MUCH POWER IN THE PRESIDENT,

WHO IS ONE OF THE CONTESTANTS.

THE VIEW FROM CIVIL SOCIETY

—————————

¶7. (C) IN A LUNCH WITH HUMAN RIGHTS AND OTHER CIVIC

ORGANIZATIONS, KANSTEINER NOTED THE CRUCIAL ROLE THEY PLAY

IN A DEMOCRACY, PRAISED THEM FOR THEIR COURAGE UNDER

DIFFICULT CONDITIONS, AND EXPRESSED U.S. SUPPORT FOR THEIR

EFFORTS.

¶8. (C) REGINALD MATCHABE-HOVE, CHAIRMAN OF THE ZIMBABWE

ELECTION SUPPORT NETWORK (ZESN), EXPRESSED SERIOUS CONCERN

ABOUT THE ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF

PROPOSED AMENDMENTS TO THE ELECTORAL ACT. PROVISIONS OF

PARTICULAR CONCERN WERE REQUIREMENTS THAT: ONLY CIVIL

SERVANTS WOULD SERVE AS MONITORS; ALL FUNDING FOR VOTER

EDUCATION MUST GO THROUGH THE GOZ-APPOINTED ESC; THE

REGISTRAR-GENERAL AND HIS OFFICERS WILL BE EMPOWERED TO

ALTER THE VOTERS ROLL AT ANY TIME; AND ONLY DIPLOMATS AND

SOLDIERS WOULD BE ABLE TO VOTE BY ABSENTEE BALLOT,

POTENTIALLY DISENFRANCHISING UP TO ONE MILLION ZIMBABWEANS

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PAGE 04       HARARE 03730 02 OF 05 141045Z

LIVING ABROAD. EILEEN SAWYER, EXECUTIVE-DIRECTOR OF THE

LEGAL RESOURCES FOUNDATION, SAID THE CITIZENSHIP ACT, WHICH

REQUIRES ZIMBABWEAN DUAL CITIZENS TO RENOUNCE THEIR FOREIGN

CITIZENSHIP, COULD DISENFRANCHISE UP TO TWO MILLION PEOPLE,

PRIMARILY COMMERCIAL FARMWORKERS OF MOZAMBICAN, MALAWIAN,

AND BOTSWANAN ORIGIN.

¶9. (C) TONY REELER, DIRECTOR OF THE WELL-RESPECTED HUMAN

RIGHTS ORGANIZATION, AMANI TRUST, SAID IT IS CLEAR FROM THE

PENDING LEGISLATION THAT GOVERNMENT IS TRYING TO CLOSE DOWN

PUBLIC SPACE. IN ADDITION TO THE BILLS DESCRIBED ABOVE,

REELER DECRIED THE PENDING ACCESS TO INFORMATION AND

PROTECTION OF PRIVACY ACT, WHICH COULD DO AWAY WITH

INDEPENDENT JOURNALISTS, AND THE “DRACONIAN” PUBLIC ORDER

AND SECURITY BILL, WHICH WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE POWERS

OF GOVERNMENT TO SQUELCH DISSENT. ACCORDING TO REELER,

VIOLENCE IS SPREADING, NOT DIMINISHING, THROUGHOUT THE

COUNTRY. THE ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS PERPETRATING THE

PREPONDERANCE OF THE VIOLENCE HAVE SET UP BASE CAMPS

NATIONWIDE, AND MOST OF THEM HAVE BEEN DRAWN FROM THE

GOVERNMENT’S RECENTLY-INAUGURATED NATIONAL YOUTH SERVICE

TRAINING PROGRAM. IN ADDITION, THE GOZ HAS ACCELERATED ITS

CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE MDC AT EVERY LEVEL. LYDIA ZIGOMO,

PRESIDENT OF THE ZIMBABWE WOMEN LAWYERS’ ASSOCIATION, SAID

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——————4B7533 141046Z /38

P 140948Z DEC 01

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0547

INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

AMEMBASSY OSLO

AMEMBASSY CANBERRA

AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM

AMEMBASSY KINGSTON

AMEMBASSY ABUJA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 05 HARARE 003730

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER

LONDON FOR GURNEY

PARIS FOR NEARY

NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02       HARARE 03730 03 OF 05 141046Z

E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/04/11

TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI

SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS MESSAGE OF SUPPORT TO

OPPOSITION AND CIVIL SOCIETY REPRESENTATIVES

IT IS HARD TO GET A GOOD SENSE OF THE SCOPE OF THE

VIOLENCE, AND TO MEASURE ITS FULL IMPACT, BECAUSE SO MANY

RURAL AREAS HAVE BEEN DECLARED OFF-LIMITS TO ANYONE OTHER

THAN ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS.

¶10. (C) KANSTEINER ASKED AT WHAT POINT CIVIL SOCIETY WOULD

DECIDE THAT THE ELECTION CANNOT POSSIBLY BE FREE AND FAIR.

ANDREW NGONGO, DIRECTOR OF TRANSPARENCY

INTERNATIONAL/ZIMBABWE, SAID THE FOCUS OF MOST CIVIC

ORGANIZATIONS HAS BEEN ON PRESSING THE GOZ TO ABIDE BY

MINIMUM ELECTORAL STANDARDS, SUCH AS AN INDEPENDENT

ELECTION COMMISSION AND BALANCED ACCESS TO THE MEDIA, BUT

HE AGREED THAT CIVIC GROUPS NEED TO CONSIDER THE POINT

KANSTEINER RAISED. NGO REPRESENTATIVES RECOGNIZED THAT THE

MDC WAS COMMITTED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE ELECTIONS, COME

WHAT MAY, AND THAT CIVIL SOCIETY COULD NOT UNDERCUT THEIR

DECISION TO CONTEST.

¶11. (C) BRIAN KAGORO, A LEADING LAWYER AND COORDINATOR OF

THE CRISIS IN ZIMBABWE TASK FORCE, DECLARED THAT THE GOZ IS

PURSUING A “TOTAL STRATEGY” THAT WILL KEEP THEM IN POWER

WELL BEYOND THE ELECTION. THE RESTRICTIVE LAWS WILL REMAIN

IN PLACE, YOUTHS IN THE NATIONAL SERVICE PROGRAM ARE

RECEIVING MILITARY TRAINING, WAR VETERANS ARE BEING ISSUED

GUNS; THESE ARE THE ACTIONS OF A GOVERNMENT PLANNING FOR

THE LONGER TERM, NOT JUST FOR AN ELECTION WHICH IS ONLY

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PAGE 03       HARARE 03730 03 OF 05 141046Z

MONTHS AWAY. GOVERNMENT, HE ASSERTED, IS “TRYING TO TAKE

US BACK TO 1965 AND RESUSCITATE RHODESIA,” BY CLOSING DOWN

THE ECONOMY AND POLITICAL AND CIVIC SPACE. REELER LAMENTED

THAT ZIMBABWEANS CAN NO LONGER DEPEND ON THE COURTS TO ACT

INDEPENDENTLY AND MUST NOW DEPEND ON THE INTERNATIONAL

COMMUNITY TO HOLD ZANU-PF LEADERS ACCOUNTABLE FOR THEIR

ACTIONS.

JUSTICE SANDURA

—————

¶12. (C) SUPREME COURT JUSTICE SANDURA IS ZIMBABWE’S SENIOR

BLACK JUDGE AND HAS SERVED ON THE SUPREME COURT SINCE 1998.

HE WAS WIDELY CONSIDERED THE LEADING CANDIDATE TO REPLACE

FORMER CHIEF JUSTICE GUBBAY BEFORE THE GOVERNMENT’S MOVE TO

STACK THE COUNTRY’S HIGHEST BENCH WITH SYMPATHETIC JURISTS.

SANDURA WAS CONTEMPTUOUS OF HIS NEW COLLEAGUES’ DECEMBER 3

RULING ENDORSING THE CONSTITUTIONALITY OF THE FAST TRACK

RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM AND AGREEING THAT THE RULE OF LAW HAD

BEEN RESTORED ON COMMERCIAL FARMS (REF C). THE RULE OF

LAW, HE SAID, PREVAILS NOWHERE IN THIS COUNTRY, NOT ON

COMMERCIAL FARMS AND NOT IN URBAN AREAS. CHIEF JUSTICE

CHIDYAUSIKU’S JUDGMENT IN THE CASE WAS MERELY A POLITICAL

STATEMENT WHICH IGNORED THE LEGAL ISSUES. IN ORDER TO

CLAIM THAT IT WAS ABIDING BY THE RULE OF LAW, THE GOZ HAD

LEGALIZED THE OCCUPATION OF FARMS. “HOW CAN YOU PASS A LAW

SAYING THAT A TRESPASSER WHO COMES INTO YOUR HOUSE CAN STAY

THERE UNTIL YOU FIND SOMEWHERE ELSE TO PUT HIM?” THE

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS WHAT IS DRIVING FAST TRACK,

SANDURA SAID, AS GIVING LAND TO THE PEOPLE IS THE ONLY

ISSUE MUGABE HAS TO TALK ABOUT.

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¶13. (C) SANDURA DESCRIBED THE CAMPAIGN OF INTIMIDATION

AGAINST THE JUDICIARY DURING THE PAST YEAR, INCLUDING THE

INVASION OF THE SUPREME COURT IN DECEMBER 2000 AND THE

THREATS BY WAR VETERANS TO KILL JUDGES IN THEIR HOMES.

POINTING OUT THAT NOT A SINGLE GOVERNMENT MINISTER

CRITICIZED THESE DEVELOPMENTS, SANDURA ASKED WHAT MESSAGE

THAT SENT TO THE WAR VETERANS. ASKED WHETHER HE OR OTHER

MEMBERS OF THE SUPREME COURT HAD BEEN SUBJECTED TO

ADDITIONAL INTIMIDATION SINCE GUBBAY’S FORCED RESIGNATION

IN JULY, SANDURA SAID NO, BECAUSE THE GOZ HAD ACHIEVED ITS

OBJECTIVE OF APPOINTING FOUR NEW JUSTICES WHO WILL DO WHAT

THEY ARE TOLD.

¶14. (C) POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF NOTED THAT GOVERNMENT WAS

LIKELY UNHAPPY WITH SANDURA’S RECENT DECISION THAT THE

HARARE MAYORAL ELECTION MUST BE HELD BY FEBRUARY 11. THE

JUSTICE REPLIED THAT THE LAW WAS STRAIGHTFORWARD AND

PROVIDED LITTLE LATITUDE FOR RULING ANY OTHER WAY. HE WAS

NOT SURE WHETHER THE GOZ WOULD ABIDE BY THE DECISION,

HOWEVER. INSTEAD, HE THOUGHT GOVERNMENT MIGHT TRY TO PASS

ANOTHER LAW ALLOWING IT TO DELAY THE HARARE MUNICIPAL

ELECTION INDEFINITELY, SINCE AN OVERWHELMING MDC VICTORY IN

THE CAPITAL CITY IS A FOREGONE CONCLUSION. AT A MINIMUM,

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PC-01   PM-00   PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00   TRSE-00

USIE-00 R-00     PMB-00   DSCC-00 DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00

SAS-00   SWCI-00   /008W

——————4B7554 141046Z /38

P 140948Z DEC 01

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0548

INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

AMEMBASSY OSLO

AMEMBASSY CANBERRA

AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM

AMEMBASSY KINGSTON

AMEMBASSY ABUJA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 05 HARARE 003730

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER

LONDON FOR GURNEY

PARIS FOR NEARY

NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02       HARARE 03730 04 OF 05 141046Z

E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/04/11

TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI

SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS MESSAGE OF SUPPORT TO

OPPOSITION AND CIVIL SOCIETY REPRESENTATIVES

SANDURA POINTED OUT, THE GOZ WOULD HAVE TO PASS RETROACTIVE

LEGISLATION VALIDATING THE WORK OF THE COMMISSION — SUCH

AS THE CONTRACTS THEY SIGNED AND OTHER COMMITMENTS THEY

ASSUMED — IN CHARGE OF HARARE SINCE THE PREVIOUS MAYOR AND

CITY COUNCIL WERE FORCED OUT ON CORRUPTION CHARGES IN 1999.

¶15. (C) ASKED WHAT IMPACT AN MDC VICTORY WOULD HAVE ON THE

SUPREME COURT, SANDURA SAID HE SUSPECTS CHIDYAUSIKU MIGHT

RESIGN, SINCE HE HAS ALIGNED HIMSELF SO CLOSELY WITH ZANU-

PF. HE ADDED THAT AN MDC PRESIDENT AND HIS CABINET WOULD

HAVE GREAT DIFFICULTY GETTING ANY LAWS PASSED THROUGH

PARLIAMENT, GIVEN ZANU-PF’S MAJORITY IN THE LEGISLATIVE

BODY. A PRESIDENT TSVANGIRAI WOULD HAVE LITTLE CHOICE,

THEREFORE, BUT TO CALL FOR A NEW PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION,

WHICH IS A CLEAR PRESIDENTIAL PREROGATIVE UNDER THE

CONSTITUTION.

COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION

————————

¶16. (C) CFU ACTING PRESIDENT DOUG TAYLOR AND DEPUTY

DIRECTOR MALCOLM VOWLES PROVIDED A BLEAK ASSESSMENT OF

EXPECTED AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION. MAIZE PRODUCTION WOULD

LIKELY BE 25% OF NORMAL LEVELS, WHILE SOYBEAN AND WHEAT

PLANTINGS ARE EACH DOWN 60%. THE GOZ, VOWLES SAID, IS

STILL IN DENIAL ABOUT THE LOOMING FOOD SHORTAGES.

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PAGE 03       HARARE 03730 04 OF 05 141046Z

ACCORDING TO VOWLES, WHEN THE SADC MINISTERIAL COMMITTEE

(REF B) ASKED GOZ REPRESENTATIVES WHETHER ZIMBABWE WOULD

EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT MAIZE SHORTAGE, THEY INITIALLY

TRIED TO DUCK THE QUESTION, THEN ONLY ADMITTED TO AN

EXPECTED SHORTFALL NEXT APRIL.

¶17. (C) ASKED WHETHER THERE HAD BEEN ANY REDUCTION IN

VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION ON THE FARMS, VOWLES SAID “NOT

THAT WE’VE SEEN.” PROBLEMS ARISE WHEN PROPERTY-OWNERS

CONFRONT THE SQUATTERS OR TRY TO PLANT, SO MANY FARMERS ARE

STAYING ON THEIR FARMS WITHOUT CULTIVATING THEIR FIELDS.

KANSTEINER ASKED WHETHER SETTLERS ARE LEAVING OCCUPIED

PROPERTIES TO RETURN TO THEIR COMMUNAL LANDS. VOWLES HAD

HEARD OF ONE OR TWO CASES BUT NOTHING THAT COULD BE CALLED

A PATTERN. ASKED HOW THE SQUATTERS SURVIVE, VOWLES SAID BY

SELLING FIREWOOD, POACHING, AND EXTORTION. ANOTHER SOURCE

OF INCOME, TAYLOR ADDED, IS PEOPLE WITH JOBS IN NEARBY

TOWNS WHO PAY THE SQUATTERS TO SIT ON PLOTS OF LAND THEY

ARE HOPING TO ACQUIRE UNDER FAST TRACK.

¶18. (C) VOWLES ASKED FOR USG ASSISTANCE ON ONE ISSUE.

THERE WAS A BLATANT CONTRADICTION, HE SAID, BETWEEN THE

SUPREME COURT’S MAJOR RULING ON LAND ON DECEMBER 21, 2000,

AND ITS LATEST DECISION. THE CFU’S LAWYERS ARE NOW DOING A

LEGAL ANALYSIS OF THE CONTRADICTIONS, AND HAVE ASKED THE

INTERNATIONAL BAR ASSOCIATION TO ASSIST IN THAT PROCESS.

ANYTHING THE U.S. COULD DO TO REINFORCE THIS EFFORT WOULD

BE GREATLY APPRECIATED, VOWLES SAID. KANSTEINER SAID HE

WOULD BE GLAD TO TOUCH BASE WITH THE AMERICAN BAR

ASSOCIATION AND ENCOURAGE IT TO BE HELPFUL.

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PAGE 04       HARARE 03730 04 OF 05 141046Z

UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE

—————————-

¶19. (C) UNDP RESREP VICTOR ANGELO TOLD KANSTEINER THAT

ZIMBABWE IS JUST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE ROAD IN TERMS OF

POLITICAL CRISIS AND ECONOMIC HARDSHIP. ACCESS TO FOOD IS

ALREADY BECOMING DIFFICULT IN RURAL AREAS. FARMERS ARE

EITHER HOLDING ONTO THEIR GRAIN OR FEEDING IT TO THEIR

ANIMALS BECAUSE OF THE LOW PRICES BEING OFFERED BY

GOVERNMENT. ASKED WHETHER THE GOZ HAS SUFFICIENT RESOURCES

TO IMPORT GRAIN OVER THE NEXT THREE MONTHS, ANGELO SAID THE

FOREX SHORTAGE POSES A SIGNIFICANT OBSTACLE. THEY HAVE

RECENTLY IMPORTED 100,000 TONS OF MAIZE FROM SOUTH AFRICA,

WHICH WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOOMING MAIZE SHORTAGE “LESS

DRAMATIC.” WFP IS READY TO MOVE, BUT THE GOZ HAS NOT

SIGNED THE LETTER OF UNDERSTANDING (LOU) BECAUSE IT

DISAGREES WITH WFP’S ANALYSIS OF THE CAUSES OF THE FOOD

CRISIS AND BECAUSE THE TWO SIDES HAVE YET TO AGREE ON A

DELIVERY MECHANISM. WFP’S POSITION ON THE LATTER POINT IS

CLEAR, ACCORDING TO ANGELO: THAT WFP MUST MAINTAIN CONTROL

OVER FOOD DELIVERIES, WHICH CANNOT BE USED BY EITHER MAJOR

POLITICAL PARTY TO LOBBY FOR VOTES. IF THE LOU WERE SIGNED

TODAY, ANGELO SAID WFP COULD HAVE AN OPERATION IN PLACE

WITHIN TWO WEEKS, AND WOULD BEGIN BY DRAWING DOWN SOME

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CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3702

PAGE 01       HARARE 03730 05 OF 05 141046Z

ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00   NP-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00 INL-00   DINT-00 DODE-00

DOTE-00 WHA-00   SRPP-00 DS-00   EAP-00   EB-00   EUR-00

FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00   H-01     TEDE-00 INR-00   LAB-01

L-00     VCE-00   AC-01   NSAE-00 OMB-01   OPIC-01 PA-00

PC-01   PM-00   PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00   TRSE-00

USIE-00 R-00     PMB-00   DSCC-00 DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00

SAS-00   SWCI-00   /008W

——————4B755C 141046Z /38

P 140948Z DEC 01

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0549

INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

AMEMBASSY OSLO

AMEMBASSY CANBERRA

AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM

AMEMBASSY KINGSTON

AMEMBASSY ABUJA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 05 HARARE 003730

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER

LONDON FOR GURNEY

PARIS FOR NEARY

NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

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PAGE 02       HARARE 03730 05 OF 05 141046Z

E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/04/11

TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI

SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS MESSAGE OF SUPPORT TO

OPPOSITION AND CIVIL SOCIETY REPRESENTATIVES

STOCKS IN MOZAMBIQUE. (NOTE: THE LOU HAS BEEN SIGNED

SUBSEQUENTLY, WITH THE GOZ AGREEING TO WFP TERMS.)

¶20. (C) TURNING TO INTERNAL POLITICS, ANGELO SAID A

GROWING NUMBER OF PEOPLE WITHIN ZANU-PF REALIZE THE RULING

PARTY IS ON A SUICIDAL PATH, BUT THEY ARE NOT WILLING TO

STAND UP TO PRESIDENT MUGABE. POLICY IS DETERMINED BY A

SMALL GROUP OF HARDLINERS AROUND MUGABE, WHO ARE ENERGETIC

AND VOCAL. ANGELO INCLUDED IN THIS GROUP INFORMATION

MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO; JUSTICE MINISTER PATRICK CHINAMASA;

LOCAL GOVERNMENT MINISTER IGNATIUS CHOMBO (“VERY TOUGH AND

AMBITIOUS, A STRATEGIC THINKER, COMES FROM THE SAME REGION

AS MUGABE”); POLICE COMMISSIONER AUGUSTINE CHIHURI; AIR

FORCE COMMANDER PERENCE SHIRI; AND CHARLES UTETE (“A KEY

PLAYER; BECAUSE OF HIS TRAINING IN THE U.S., HE UNDERSTANDS

THE NEED TO COMPROMISE AND WOULD BE READY TO DO BUSINESS.”)

ASKED WHETHER THE MEMBERS OF THIS GROUP WOULD CUT MUGABE

LOOSE, ANGELO SAID YES, BECAUSE THEY KNOW THE LAWS OF HUMAN

NATURE, THAT MUGABE WILL GO SOONER OR LATER. THE MEMBERS

OF THIS GROUP ARE PRIMARILY CONCERNED WITH THREE ISSUES:

THE ELECTION, SUCCESSION, AND PROTECTION (OF ASSETS AND

FROM PROSECUTION). UNLESS THESE THREE ISSUES ARE

ADDRESSED, ANGELO EMPHASIZED, WE WILL NOT SEE ANY CHANGE IN

THE COURSE OF EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE.

¶21. (C) ASKED WHETHER THE UN PLANNED TO MOUNT AN ELECTION

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PAGE 03       HARARE 03730 05 OF 05 141046Z

OBSERVATION EFFORT, ANGELO SAID NO. THE UN HAD TOLD THE

GOZ IT WANTED AN INVITATION BY SEPTEMBER BECAUSE IT DID NOT

WANT A TEAM TO COME IN AT THE LAST MINUTE MERELY TO ENDORSE

A FLAWED PROCESS. THE AMBASSADOR SAID SOME ANALYSTS

CONTEND THAT THE GOZ IS EMPLOYING A COMPREHENSIVE, WELL-

COORDINATED STRATEGY TO ENSURE IT WINS THE ELECTION. IS

THE STRATEGY REALLY THAT WELL-ORCHESTRATED, OR IS IT MOSTLY

CONFUSION AND DISORDER? A COMBINATION OF THE TWO, ANGELO

REPLIED. THE GOZ IS DOING THINGS LIKE MAKING IT VERY

DIFFICULT FOR YOUNG, URBAN VOTERS TO REGISTER BUT WILL

FIND, IN THE END, THAT IT IS NOT EASY TO MANAGE THE VOTE-

COUNTING PROCESS TO ITS SATISFACTION. THE GOZ, HE SAID,

COULD EXPERIENCE “A VERY COLD SHOWER” ONCE THE VOTES ARE

COUNTED. THE ANTI-ZANU-PF PROTEST VOTE IS GROWING DAILY

ACROSS THE COUNTRY, AS MORE AND MORE PEOPLE REALIZE THEIR

COUNTRY IS BEING RUINED AND DO NOT WANT ZIMBABWE TO BECOME

THE LATEST FAILED AFRICAN STATE.

¶22. (C) COMMENT: IN A CONVERSATION WITH THE AMBASSADOR

FOLLOWING A/S KANSTEINER’S DEPARTURE, ANGELO AGREED TO CALL

CHINAMASA’S BLUFF ON TRANSLUCENT BALLOT BOXES. HE REPORTED

BACK THAT CHINAMASA ACCEPTED THE OFFER AND HAD PROMISED TO

SEND AN OFFICIAL REQUEST. WHEN AND IF THIS ARRIVES, WE

HAVE PRE-PROGRAMMED ESF WITH WHICH TO PROVIDE PARTIAL

FUNDING FOR THIS COMMODITY THROUGH UNDP. END COMMENT.

SULLIVAN

CONFIDENTIAL

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