Tsvangirai said Mugabe was using GPA to maintain ZANU-PF control

Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai told United States ambassador to Zimbabwe Charles Ray that progress on the implementation of the outstanding issues in the Global Political Agreement was slow because President Robert Mugabe and his Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front had adopted a new tactic in their agenda- reciprocity. What this meant, he said, was that Mugabe was asking: “What’s in this for us?

“If MDC gets governorships, Mugabe asks, why can’t the sanctions against ZANU-PF be lifted?”

Tsvangirai said that it seemed Mugabe planned to use the governors as a trade-off against sanctions.

He said he had repeatedly told Mugabe that MDC had no control over sanctions. But, he added, lack of any flexibility on the issue of sanctions posed a problem for him and his party.

Tsvangirai acknowledged that his public statements calling for easing of sanctions versus his private conversations saying they must be kept in place had caused problems.

He said that there had been tremendous progress in restoring confidence of the people in government but the principal challenge was how to quickly embark on reforms.

The implementation of the GPA had been too slow. ZANU-PF was using delay on the GPA to maintain control.

Negotiators had held 11 meetings. There had been some progress on issues of the media, land, and corruption, but none of this touched on the power tructure.

Full cable:

Viewing cable 09HARARE1004, TSVANGIRAI ASKS THE WEST FOR HELP ON CHANGING THE

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001004 

SIPDIS 

DEPT FOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY CARSON, DAS PAGE, AND AF/S 

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR MICHELLE GAVIN 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/24/2019 

TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ASEC ZI

SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI ASKS THE WEST FOR HELP ON CHANGING THE 

STATUS QUO 

REF: HARARE 987 

Classified By: AMBASSADOR CHARLES A. RAY FOR REASONS 1.4 B,D 

¶1. (SBU) This cable includes an ACTION REQUEST, please see 

paragraph 8. 

¶2. (C) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai said that 

while there was tremendous progress in 2009 as compared to 

2008, Zimbabwe and its coalition government still faces 

challenges. Reforms must be implemented quickly, and there 

has been some progress, though none that affects the ZANU-PF 

power structure. Implementation of the Global Political 

Agreement (GPA) has been slow and Mugabe has been using delay 

to maintain control. In 2010 there must be some progress to 

show the people, but it will require actions by all parties, 

including the Western powers, to change the status quo. He 

expects the recently announced commissions to be installed in 

early 2010, and is satisfied with their makeup. ZANU-PF has 

implemented a strategy of reciprocity in the negotiations, 

using Western sanctions as a cudgel against MDC. He would 

like to see some quiet moves, provided there are acceptable 

benchmarks, to 'give' some modest reward for modest progress. 

¶3. (C) Ambassadors of the U.S., UK, French, and the 

Netherlands, and a representative of the EU were called to PM 

Tsvangirai's residence at 0730 on December 24 for an update 

briefing on the current discussions among the principals in 

the coalition government and a request from him for some 

flexibility on the part of the West on the issue of 

sanctions. He said that there has been tremendous progress 

in restoring confidence of the people in government in 2009 

as compared to 2008. The people generally endorse the 

government, but the future holds both opportunities and 

challenges. The principal challenge is how to quickly embark 

on reforms. There has been a little progress on that front, 

but not what was expected. Implementation of the GPA has 

been too slow, and he is not satisfied with it. ZANU-PF has 

been using delay on the GPA to maintain control. The 

negotiators have held 11 meetings up until the end of the 

year. On the issues of media, land, and corruption, there 

has been some progress, but none of it touches on the power 

structure. On the three stickiest issues, Gono, Tomana, and 

Bennett, there has been no progress. He is hopeful, however, 

that if some progress can be made on other issues, these too 

will be settled. 

¶4. (C) ZANU-PF seems to have introduced a new tactic in its 

agenda - reciprocity. What this means, he said, is that 

Mugabe is asking, "What's in this for us?" If MDC gets 

governorships, Mugabe asks, why can't the sanctions against 

ZANU-PF be lifted? Tsvangirai said that it seems that Mugabe 

plans to use the governors as a trade-off against sanctions. 

He said he has repeatedly told Mugabe that MDC has no control 

over sanctions. But, he added, lack of any flexibility on 

the issue of sanctions poses a problem for him and his party. 

 In this he assured us that Deputy Prime Minister Arthur 

Q In this he assured us that Deputy Prime Minister Arthur 

Mutambara is in full agreement with him. He also 

acknowledged that his public statements calling for easing of 

sanctions versus his private conversations saying they must 

be kept in place have caused problems. 

¶5. (C) Tsvangirai said the challenges for 2010 are: 

- Get the reforms moving on the constitutional process. 

- Open media space, national healing, and anti-corruption. 

- Prepare for elections in 2011. 

- Move from economic stability to growth. 

- Deal with human rights violations. 

He said the coalition government must expedite action in all 

these areas because, not only are Western governments 

watching, but the people of Zimbabwe will expect improvement. 

 He said Security Sector Reform will take center stage in 

HARARE 00001004 002 OF 002 

2010, using a multilateral approach involving all parties 

here and SADC. In early 2010, Tsvangirai and Mutambara will 

take the diplomatic lead on the sanctions issue. The 

question before us, Tsvangirai said, is how to start moving 

on rewarding progress without giving the impression we are 

rewarding lack of progress or bad behavior. We need to 

establish acceptable benchmarks of progress, and determine 

what each involved party needs to do to change the status 

quo. If necessary, he said, he and Mutambara can quietly 

meet with Western leadership to develop a plan on the issue 

of sanctions. He said that he and Mutambara have decided to 

take this issue out of the hands of the negotiators and 

handle it personally. What is needed is some kind of 

concrete roadmap that all can agree on, linking easing of 

sanctions with identifiable and quantifiable progress. 

¶6. (C) Tsvangirai wants to go to Mugabe after the 

negotiators deliver their final report on January 15, 2010, 

with some idea of what the Western position is on sanctions. 

He said that in order to change the status quo, all parties 

might have to take some risks, because maintaining the status 

quo only guarantees continued stalemate in the reform 

process. Economic recovery and democratic reform are the 

essential requirements in Zimbabwe right now. The 2011 

elections are a critical goal as well. Winning the election, 

he said, is not the problem, but a peaceful transfer of power 

is. The recently announced commissions will be installed 

early in 2010, he said, and he is satisfied with their 

makeup. The heads of the Media and Electoral Commissions are 

honest men who he believes will put the interests of the 

country first. His goal is to have the Electoral Commission 

hire its own staff and be independent. The key is to wrest 

control from the Securocrats. 

¶7. (C) On the subject of Mugabe himself, Tsvangirai said 

that in his recent meetings, though Mugabe seems mentally 

acute, he appears old and very tired. He comes to many 

meetings unbriefed and unaware of the content. It appears 

that he is being managed by hardliners. Tsvangirai said his 

goal now is to find a way to 'manage' Mugabe himself. One 

way, perhaps, would be to give him something to give his 

hardliners. Precisely what that something is, he said, is 

something he is still wrestling with. 

¶8. (C) COMMENT AND ACTION REQUEST. We are skeptical of 

Mugabe's motives, and worried a bit at what appears to be 

naivete on Tsvangirai's part. However, we believe that in 

one area he is correct: changing the status quo here will 

require some risk taking on everyone's part. As we've 

previously discussed (reftel), we think it might be in USG 

interests to consider some form of incremental easing of 

non-personal sanctions, provided we see actual implementation 

of some of these reforms. Post would appreciate Washington's 

view on what would be acceptable benchmarks, and possible 

moves on our part. We also request guidance on what to tell 

Qmoves on our part. We also request guidance on what to tell 

Tsvangirai at our next meeting, which is expected early in 

the New Year. END COMMENT AND ACTION REQUEST. 

RAY

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