Tsvangirai confident he would win presidential elections

Movement for Democratic Change leader Morgan Tsvangirai was confident he would win the 2002 presidential elections and was more worried about the havoc by the war veterans than the military.

Speaking to a visiting United States delegation Tsvangirai said he would win between 65 and 70 percent of the vote depending on the voter turnout.

Asked whether he was confident that the military would abide by the election results if he won, Tsvangirai said he was more concerned about the likely reaction of war veterans around the country as they were being issued large numbers of weapons from the army’s arms depots.

Tsvangirai also pressed for the imposition of targeted personal sanctions as a warning -a “yellow card” -to the government of Zimbabwe to ensure that Zimbabweans were allowed to cast their votes freely and to abide by the election outcome.

He advocated the subsequent imposition of comprehensive sanctions -the red card – if the election was “subverted”.

Full cable:

Viewing cable 01HARARE3250, AF PDAS DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE CRISIS WITH MDC LEADER AND

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PARIS FOR NEARY

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E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/29/11

TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ZI

SUBJECT: AF PDAS DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE CRISIS WITH MDC LEADER AND

OTHER KEY NON-GOVERNMENTAL PLAYERS

CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS:

1.5 (B) AND (D).

SUMMARY

——-

¶1. (C) AF PDAS MARK BELLAMY MET WITH A WIDE RANGE OF INDIVIDUALS

AND ORGANIZATIONS OUTSIDE GOVERNMENT, INCLUDING MDC PRESIDENT

MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION, AND OTHER KEY

PLAYERS DURING A TWO-DAY VISIT TO HARARE OCTOBER 24-26. MANY OF

HIS INTERLOCUTORS INDICATED THAT GOVERNMENT-SANCTIONED POLITICAL

VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION, AND HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES, HAVE CONTINUED

UNABATED SINCE THE SIGNING OF THE ABUJA AGREEMENT IN EARLY

SEPTEMBER. SEVERAL URGED THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO INSIST

THAT THE GOZ MEET SPECIFIC MINIMUM ELECTION STANDARDS OR BE

PREPARED FOR THE FACT THAT THE ELECTION RESULT WOULD NOT BE

CONSIDERED LEGITIMATE. TSVANGIRAI PRESSED FOR THE IMPOSITION OF

TARGETED SANCTIONS NOW, SAYING SUCH A MOVE COULD BE AN EFFECTIVE

WARNING TO THE GOZ ON THE NEED FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS. THE

MDC LEADER CONFIRMED ONGOING LOW-LEVEL TALKS WITH ZANU-PF, BUT WAS

SKEPTICAL THEY WOULD LEAD ANYWHERE AS PRESIDENT MUGABE IS MORE

INTERESTED IN GOING IT ALONE THAN IN ENGAGING IN REAL DIALOGUE

ABOUT THE WAY FORWARD. END SUMMARY.

¶2. (U) DURING HIS OCTOBER 24-26 VISIT TO HARARE, AF PRINCIPAL

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PAGE 03       HARARE 03250 01 OF 04 310726Z

DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE MARK BELLAMY MET SEPARATELY

WITH MDC LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, SUPREME COURT JUSTICE WILSON

SANDURA, CATHOLIC PRIEST FATHER FIDELIS MUKONORI, LEADERS OF THE

COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION, AND A RANGE OF CIVIL SOCIETY LEADERS.

BELLAMY WAS ACCOMPANIED BY AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN AND POLITICAL

SECTION CHIEF.

FATHER FIDELIS MUKONORI

———————–

¶3. (C) IN A CONVERSATION OVER BREAKFAST WITH FATHER FIDELIS

MUKONORI, LEADER OF ZIMBABWE’S JESUITS AND A LONG-TIME CONFIDANT

OF PRESIDENT MUGABE, THE PDAS NOTED LITTLE PROGRESS IN

IMPLEMENTATION OF ABUJA, AND ASKED WHETHER THE GOZ HAD ANY

INTENTION OF HONORING ITS ABUJA COMMITMENTS. YES, FIDELIS

REPONDED, BUT THEY HAD TO BE PROVIDED WITH POLITICAL COVER.

ABUJA, HE SAID, IS ABOUT MORE THAN COMPENSATION TO COMMERCIAL

FARMERS. IT MEANS POTENTIAL STABILITY TO THE GOZ, BY HOLDING OUT

THE PROSPECT OF ENSURING THAT RESETTLED FAMILIES ARE PROVIDED WITH

THE NECESSARY RESOURCES TO EARN A LIVING. THE GOZ, HE SAID,

REALIZES THAT IT HAS MADE SERIOUS MISTAKES, BUT IT IS NOT USED TO

BEGGING AND IS TRYING TO SAVE FACE. THE LAND ISSUE, MUKONORI

INSISTED, WILL NOT GO AWAY REGARDLESS OF WHO WINS THE 2002

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.

¶4. (C) THE UNITED STATES, AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN REPLIED, RECOGNIZES

THE IMPORTANCE OF LAND REFORM. IT WANTS TO PROVIDE ASSISTANCE BUT

WOULD DO SO ONLY IF THE PROCESS IS LEGAL, RATIONAL, AND ORDERLY.

BELLAMY AGREED, BUT EMPHASIZED THAT THE USG IS MOST CONCERNED

ABOUT GOZ-SANCTIONED POLITICAL INTIMIDATION AND VIOLENCE WHICH

APPEARS DESIGNED TO ENSURE THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE REMAINS IN

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PAGE 04       HARARE 03250 01 OF 04 310726Z

OFFICE. THE USG, HE SAID, IS TRYING TO DETERMINE HOW IT CAN PLAY A

CONSTRUCTIVE ROLE UNDER SUCH CIRCUMSTANCES. SOME IN THE U.S., HE

REPORTED, ARE PRESSING FOR THE IMPOSITION OF TARGETED PERSONAL

SANCTIONS AS THE MOST APPROPRIATE U.S. RESPONSE. MUKONORI

EXPRESSED HIS VIEW THAT TARGETED SANCTIONS WOULD BE

COUNTERPRODUCTIVE, AS THEY WOULD “MAKE MUGABE A HERO WITHIN HIS

PARTY.” BESIDES, MUGABE HAS BEEN “HARDENED BY INCARCERATIONS AND

WAR” AND WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY SUCH MEASURES. HE

WARNED AGAINST DEMONIZING AN INDIVIDUAL, AND CLAIMED THAT THE

ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT WAS ILL-SERVED BY SYCOPHANTIC ADVISORS.

ASKED WHETHER MUGABE WOULD RESPECT THE ELECTION RESULT IF HE

LOSES, MUKONORI DID NOT ANSWER DIRECTLY. INSTEAD, HE REPORTED

THAT HE HAS BEEN CHAIRING LOW-LEVEL TALKS BETWEEN ZANU-PF AND THE

MDC, IN WHICH HE HAS TRIED TO REASSURE BOTH SIDES THAT THEY HAVE A

FUTURE IF THEY LOSE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. PROGRESS IN THESE

TALKS HAS BEEN “SLOW,” MUKONORI LAMENTED.

JUSTICE WILSON SANDURA

———————-

¶5. (C) SUPREME COURT JUSTICE WILSON SANDURA SAID HE HAD PREFERRED

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AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS

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AMEMBASSY KINGSTON

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AMEMBASSY OSLO

AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HARARE 003250

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER

BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU

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PARIS FOR NEARY

NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

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SUBJECT: AF PDAS DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE CRISIS WITH MDC LEADER AND

OTHER KEY NON-GOVERNMENTAL PLAYERS

TO MEET AT THE EMBASSY TO AVOID THE INEVITABLE FLOOD OF QUESTIONS

HE WOULD HAVE RECEIVED IF U.S. DIPLOMATS HAD COME TO HIS OFFICE.

HE REFERRED TO THESE AS “DIFFICULT TIMES” FOR THE JUDICIARY AND

RECOUNTED NUMEROUS INCIDENTS OF INTIMIDATION AGAINST JUDGES,

INCLUDING THE INVASION OF THE SUPREME COURT BY WAR VETERANS.

SANDURA SAID THE INTIMIDATION INTENSIFIED AFTER THE COURT DECLARED

UNCONSTITUTIONAL THE GOVERNMENT’S FAST TRACK LAND EFFORT IN

DECEMBER 2000. THE COURT’S RULING, SANDURA INSISTED, CANNOT BE

CRITICIZED ON LEGAL GROUNDS, ONLY ON THE POLITICAL BASIS THAT IT

DOES NOT PERMIT THE GOVERNMENT TO DO WHAT IT WANTS. THE

INTIMIDATION, HE SAID, WAS DESINED TO PRESSURE JUDGES INTO

ISSUING SYMPATHETIC RULINGS; WHEN THAT DID NOT WORK, THE GOZ TRIED

TO USH SANDURA AND HIS COLLEAGUES OUT INDIVIDUALLY.

¶6. (C) SANDURA SAID HE IS THE MOST SENIOR JUDGE N ZIMBABWE,

AFTER JUSTICE MCNALLY, WHO RETIRES I DECEMBER, AND SHOULD HAVE

BEEN THE NATURAL CHOICE FOR THE CHIEF JUSTICE POSITION AFTER THE

FORCED RETIREMENT OF ANTHONY GUBBAY. INSTEAD, “FOR OBVIOUS

REASONS,” THE GOZ APPOINTED GODFREY CHIDYAUSIKU, WHO IS “MORE A

POLITICIAN THAN A JUDGE” AND WHO IS JUNIOR TO ALL OF THE OTHER

JUDGES ON THE SUPREME COURT.

¶7. (C) SANDURA NOTED THAT THE GOZ HAD RECENTLY APPOINTED THREE

NEW JUSTICES TO THE SUPREME COURT. DID THE GOVERNMENT NOW HAVE A

COURT IT IS COMFORTABLE WITH, BELLAMY ASKED? TWO OF THE NEW

APPOINTEES — JUSTICES MALABA AND CHEDA — HAVE BEEN ALLOCATED

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PAGE 03       HARARE 03250 02 OF 04 310726Z

LAND UNDER FAST TRACK, SANDURA POINTED OUT. HOW COULD INDIVIDUALS

WHO HAVE BENEFITTED FROM A PROGRAM ADJUDICATE THE LEGALITY OF THAT

PROGRAM, SANDURA ASKED? THAT SAID, HE WAS NOT CONVINCED THAT

MALABA AND CHEDA WOULD RULE WITH CHIDYAUSIKU IN EVERY CASE,

ALTHOUGH HE ASSESSED JUSTICE VERNANDA ZIYAMBI TOBE FIRMLY IN THE

NEW CHIEF JUSTICE’S CAMP. SANDURA NOTED THAT THE COURT, IN WHICH

FOUR OF THE FIV JUSTICES WHO SAT WERE RECENT APPOINTEES, ISSUED

AN INTERIM ORDER ALLOWING THE GOZ TO PROCEED WITH CQUIRING FARMS

LISTED FOR COMPULSORY ACQUISITIONPRIOR TO JUNE 30. HE PREDICTED

THAT CHIDYAUSIKU WOULD BIDE HIS TIME AND NOT ISSUE A FINAL RULING

N THE CONSTITUTIONALITY OF THE FAST TRACK PROGRAM NTIL SOMETIME

NEXT YEAR, MUCH CLOSER TO THE PRESDENTIAL ELECTION. ASKED

WHETHER HE INTENDED TO EMAIN ON THE COURT, DESPITE ITS

POLITICIZATION, SANDURA REPLIED IN THE AFFIRMATIVE.

LUNCH WITH USID CORE PARTNERS

——————————

¶8. (C) USAID’S CORE PARTNERS, COMPRISING LEADIN CIVIL SOCIETY

ORGANIZATIONS, DESCRIBED CONTINUIG POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND

SUGGESTED SPECIFIC DIPLOMATIC STEPS THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

OUGHT TO URSUE. TONY REELER, DIRECTOR OF ONE OF ZIMBABWE’SMOST

PROMINENT HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATIONS, AMANITRUST, EXPRESSED

CONCERN ABOUT THE ABUJA AGREEMET’S FOCUS ON LAND. WINNING THE

ELECTION IS THE OVERARCHING OBJECTIVE FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF

ZIMBABE, AND ABUJA IS MERELY A DELAYING TACTIC FROM HARAE’S

PERSPECTIVE. THE LEVEL OF POLITICAL VIOLENC HAS NOT DECREASED

ONE IOTA SINCE THE SIGNING OF THE ABUJA AGREEMENT, REELER

ASSERTED. LYDIA ZIGOMO, HEAD OF ZIMBABWE WOMEN LAWYERS FOR HUMAN

RIGHTS, AGREED. SHE CLAIMED THAT THE GOZ IS ESTABLISHING

“REEDUCATION CAMPS” IN RURAL AREAS WHERE GIRLS FROM NEARBY AREAS

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ARE FORCED TO SERVE AS COOKS AND SUBJECTED TO SEXUAL ABUSE. ZIGOMO

ADDED AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN THAT THE GOZ IS CONDUCTING AN

AGGRESSIVE CLAMPDOWN ON NGOS AND THEIR ACTIVITIES NATIONWIDE.

REGINALD MATCHABA-HOVE, CHAIRMAN OF THE ZIMBABWE ELECTION SUPPORT

NETWORK (ZESN), SAID HE HAD ADVISED NGOS TO OPEN OFF-SHORE BANK

ACCOUNTS AS A PALLIATIVE MEASURE IN CASE THE GOZ DECIDES TO TAMPER

WITH THEIR DOMESTIC ACCOUNTS.

¶9. (C) SARAH CHIUMBU, DIRECTOR OF THE MEDIA INSTITUTE OF SOUTHERN

AFRICA (MISA), SHARED HER CONCERN THAT INFORMATION MINISTER

JONATHAN MOYO CONTINUES TO USE THE STATE MEDIA AS HIS PERSONAL

VEHICLE AND THAT EQUAL ACCESS TO THE MEDIA FOR ALL PARTIES IS AN

UNACHIEVABLE OBJECTIVE UNDER CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCES. CHIUMBU ALSO

EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT ONGOING HARASSMENT OF JOURNALISTS, A

PARTICULARLY SERIOUS PROBLEM IN RURAL AREAS, AND ABOUT

GOVERNMENT’S INTENTION TO BAR NGOS FROM CONDUCTING VOTER

EDUCATION. EILEEN SAWYER, EXECUTIVE-DIRECTOR OF THE LEGAL

RESOURCES FOUNDATION (LRF), SAID THE RECENTLY-PASSED CITIZENSHIP

ACT AMENDMENT, WHICH REQUIRES THOSE HOLDING DUAL CITIZENSHIP TO

RENOUNCE THEIR CLAIM TO CITIZENSHIP FROM ZIMBABWE OR THE SECOND

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AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

AMEMBASSY ABUJA

AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS

AMEMBASSY OTTAWA

AMEMBASSY KINGSTON

AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM

AMEMBASSY OSLO

AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 HARARE 003250

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER

BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU

LONDON FOR GURNEY

PARIS FOR NEARY

NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

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SUBJECT: AF PDAS DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE CRISIS WITH MDC LEADER AND

OTHER KEY NON-GOVERNMENTAL PLAYERS

COUNTRY, COULD DISENFRANCHISE ONE-AND-A-HALF MILLION PEOPLE,

MOSTLY COMMERCIAL FARMWORKERS. THE LRF HAS, THEREFORE, FILED A

CLASS-ACTION LAWSUIT CHALLENGING THE LAW’S CONSTITUTIONALITY.

¶10. (C) REELER URGED THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO DELIVER A

MESSAGE TO THE GOZ, IN THE STRONGEST POSSIBLE TERMS, THAT THE

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION MUST MEET CERTAIN MINIMUM STANDARDS OR ELSE

THE OUTCOME WOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED LEGITIMATE. SUCH A MESSAGE

COULD BE VERY EFFECTIVE, REELER THOUGHT, SINCE LEGITIMACY IS

IMPORTANT TO MUGABE. HE NOTED THAT MOST ZIMBABWEAN VOTERS ARE

WAITING ANXIOUSLY TO CAST BALLOTS NEXT YEAR, AND THEY WANT THEIR

VOTES TO COUNT. IF THE ELECTION IS STOLEN, THEREFORE, THERE COULD

BE AN UPSURGE IN VIOLENCE. MATCHABA-HOVE AGREED, AND ASSERTED

THAT A SLIM VICTORY BY EITHER PARTY COULD SPARK SERIOUS UNREST.

HE POINTED OUT THAT THE GOZ HAS DIFFICULTY SAYING “NO” TO OTHER

AFRICANS AND ENCOURAGED THE UNITED STATES TO PRESS NIGERIAN

PRESIDENT OBASANJO TO CONTINUE PLAYING AN ACTIVE AND CONSTRUCTIVE

ROLE IN ZIMBABWE.

COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION

————————

¶11. (C) COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION (CFU) DIRECTOR DAVID HASLUCK

TOLD BELLAMY THE CFU WELCOMED THE ABUJA AGREEMENT, AS IT PROVIDED

EVIDENCE OF GOZ POLITICAL COMMITMENT THAT PREVIOUSLY HAD BEEN

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PAGE 03       HARARE 03250 03 OF 04 310726Z

LACKING, AND SPELLED OUT BROADER PRINCIPLES WHICH, IF ADHERED TO,

WOULD MAKE ZIMBABWE LIVEABLE FOR ALL CITIZENS ONCE AGAIN. THE

PROBLEM, HOWEVER, IS THAT ABUJA HAS NOT BEEN IMPLEMENTED.

ACCORDING TO HASLUCK, THE SITUATION ON COMMERCIAL FARMS IS MUCH

WORSE THAN ON SEPTEMBER 6, THE DAY OF THE ABUJA MEETING. FARM

INVASIONS AND PARTICULARLY WORK STOPPAGES CONTINUE TO BE A SERIOUS

PROBLEM, HE SAID.   BELLAMY ASKED WHETHER THE CFU’S MEMBERS WERE

ABLE TO FARM, DESPITE THE OCCUPATIONS, AND HOW SERIOUSLY OVERALL

PRODUCTION IS BEING AFFECTED. THERE IS A RANGE OF SITUATIONS,

HASLUCK REPLIED. SOME FARMERS HAVE BEEN DRIVEN OFF THEIR

PROPERTIES COMPLETELY, WHILE OTHERS ARE TRYING TO FARM AROUND THE

OCCUPIERS. CFU DEPUTY DIRECTOR MALCOLM VOWLES ADDED THAT MORE

THAN ONE-THIRD OF COMMERCIAL FARMERS ARE CURRENTLY UNABLE TO

UNDERTAKE NORMAL FARMING OPERATIONS, WITH CUTBACKS RANGING FROM 10

TO 100 PERCENT.

¶12. (C) THE AMBASSADOR ASKED WHAT WOULD CONVINCE THE CFU THAT THE

GOZ IS SERIOUS ABOUT IMPLEMENTING ABUJA. WOULD REMOVING OCCUPIERS

BE SUFFICIENT? THE GOVERNMENT WOULD NOT EVEN HAVE TO GO THAT FAR,

CFU PRESIDENT COLIN CLOETE REPLIED. SIMPLY ALLOWING FARMING

OPERATIONS TO PROCEED UNHINDERED WOULD BE A HUGE STEP FORWARD.

ASKED WHAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY COULD DO THAT IT WAS NOT

ALREADY DOING, CFU VICE-PRESIDENT WILLIAM HUGHES SAID IT IS

CRUCIAL TO PRESS THE GOZ TO ABIDE BY THE RULE OF LAW, A GOAL

SPECIFICALLY ADDRESSED IN THE ABUJA AGREEMENT. CLOETE ADDED THAT

THE GOZ IS CLEARLY FOCUSED ONLY ON THAT PORTION OF THE AGREEMENT

REQUIRING THE BRITISH TO COME UP WITH FUNDS FOR LAND REFORM, WHILE

CHOOSING TO IGNORE THE REFERENCES TO RESTORING THE RULE OF LAW.

VOWLES NOTED THAT THERE IS CURRENTLY A CREDIBLE LAND REFORM

PROGRAM ON THE TABLE — THE ZIMBABWE JOINT RESETTLEMENT INITIATIVE

— UNDER WHICH FARMERS HAVE OFFERED THE GOZ ONE MILLION HECTARES

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FOR RESETTLEMENT. THE GOZ, HE SAID, HAS ACCEPTED THE PLAN IN

PRINCIPLE AND IT HAS BEEN ENDORSED BY THE WORLD BANK AND UNDP.

ASKED WHY THIS PROGRAM HAS NOT BEEN IMPLEMENTED, HASLUCK SAID THE

GOVERNMENT IS NOT INTERESTED IN GENUINE LAND REFORM. THE FAST

TRACK EFFORT, HE SAID, IS ALL ABOUT COERCING VOTES FOR THE

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.

MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI

——————————-

¶13. (C) MDC LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI PRESSED FOR THE IMPOSITION

OF TARGETED PERSONAL SANCTIONS AS A WARNING — A “YELLOW CARD” —

TO THE GOZ TO ENSURE THAT ZIMBABWEANS ARE ALLOWED TO CAST THEIR

VOTES FREELY AND TO ABIDE BY THE ELECTION OUTCOME. TSVANGIRAI

ADVOCATED THE SUBSEQUENT IMPOSITION OF COMPREHENSIVE SANCTIONS —

THE RED CARD — IF THE ELECTION IS “SUBVERTED.” ASKED HIS VIEW ON

THE VALUE OF DIRECT TALKS BETWEEN THE MDC AND ZANU-PF TO AGREE ON

A WAY FORWARD, TSVANGIRAI SAID ZIMBABWE NEEDS A POLITICAL CULTURE

WHICH PERMITS THAT KIND OF DIALOGUE. UNFORTUNATELY, PRESIDENT

MUGABE DOES NOT RECOGNIZE THE LEGITIMACY OF THE MDC. TSVANGIRAI

SAID HE HAD WRITTEN TO HIM TWICE PROPOSING SUCH A DIALOGUE ON

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AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

AMEMBASSY ABUJA

AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS

AMEMBASSY OTTAWA

AMEMBASSY KINGSTON

AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM

AMEMBASSY OSLO

AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 HARARE 003250

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER

BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU

LONDON FOR GURNEY

PARIS FOR NEARY

NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

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SUBJECT: AF PDAS DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE CRISIS WITH MDC LEADER AND

OTHER KEY NON-GOVERNMENTAL PLAYERS

CRITICAL NATIONAL ISSUES SUCH AS LAND, THE ECONOMY, AND

CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM, BUT MUGABE HAS NOT RESPONDED. THE MDC

PRESIDENT ACKNOWLEDGED THAT LOW-LEVEL TALKS BETWEEN THE TWO

PARTIES ARE GOING ON, BROKERED BY FATHER FIDELIS MUKONORI, BUT

THEY ARE EXPLORATORY AND HAVE ACCOMPLISHED LITTLE.

¶14. (C) BELLAMY REPORTED THAT THERE NOW IS MUCH MORE ANXIETY

AMONG ZIMBABWE’S NEIGHBORS THAN THERE WAS DURING HIS MARCH 2001

VISIT. MALAWIAN PRESIDENT MULUZI, FOR EXAMPLE, WAS QUITE

OUTSPOKEN ABOUT HIS CONCERNS AND BELIEVES MUCH MORE PRESSURE MUST

BE BROUGHT TO BEAR ON THE GOZ, PARTICULARLY ON THE IMPORTANCE OF

ENSURING FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS. TSVANGIRAI SAID HE HAD SEEN A

DRAMATIC CHANGE AMONG SADC MEMBERS, WHO NOW HAVE A MUCH BETTER

UNDERSTANDING OF DEVELOPMENTS HERE, AND HE PRAISED SADC PRESIDENTS

FOR BEING MORE ATTENTIVE TO ZIMBABWE’S DIFFICULTIES. ASKED

WHETHER THE MDC IS IN REGULAR CONTACT WITH SADC NEIGHBORS,

TSVANGIRAI SAID THEY ARE IN “CONSTANT” COMMUNICATION WITH THE

SIPDIS

SOUTH AFRICANS, VIA THEIR EMBASSY IN HARARE. THE OTHER EMBASSIES,

THOUGH, HAVE “KEPT THEIR DISTANCE.”

¶15. (C) TSVANGIRAI CONFIRMED THAT HE CONTINUES TO HOLD DISCREET

DISCUSSIONS WITH MILITARY OFFICERS. ASKED WHETHER HE WAS

CONFIDENT THAT THE MILITARY WOULD ABIDE BY THE ELECTION RESULTS IF

HE WERE TO WIN, TSVANGIRAI SAID HE WAS MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE

LIKELY REACTION OF WAR VETERANS AROUND THE COUNTRY, WHO ARE BEING

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ISSUED LARGE NUMBERS OF WEAPONS FROM THE ARMY’S ARMS DEPOTS.   THE

MDC PRESIDENT PREDICTED THAT HE WOULD WIN 65-70 PERCENT OF THE

NATIONAL VOTE NEXT YEAR, DEPENDING ON TURNOUT.

COMMENT

——-

¶16. (C) BELLAMY’S INTERLOCUTORS PROVIDED A COMPELLING PICTURE OF

ONGOING POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS, DESPITE

THE GOZ’S COMMITMENTS AT ABUJA. WE AGREE THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE’S

OVERARCHING OBJECTIVE IS WINNING THE ELECTION, AND THAT FAST TRACK

IS BEING WIELDED PRIMARILY AS A TOOL OF INTIMIDATION AGAINST

SUSPECTED OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS. IN THAT LIGHT, WE WOULD ARGUE IT

IS CRITICAL THAT WE SECURE CONSENSUS AMONG KEY PLAYERS –SADC, THE

EU, AND THE COMMONWEALTH — ON MINIMUM STANDARDS WE EXPECT THE

GOVERNMENT TO ADHERE TO IN THE UPCOMING ELECTION, AND PRESENT

THOSE EXPECTATIONS IN A UNIFIED DIPLOMATIC APPROACH TO THE GOZ.

SINCE THE SADC PARLIAMENTARY FORUM ENDORSED AN EXCELLENT SET OF

ELECTORAL STANDARDS IN MARCH 2001 AT A MEETING ATTENDED BY SPEAKER

OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA, TWO MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT FROM

ZANU-PF AND ONE FROM THE MDC, WE WOULD RECOMMEND THAT OUR DEMARCHE

DRAW EXCLUSIVELY FROM THAT DOCUMENT. SUCH AN APPROACH TO THE GOZ

SHOULD MAKE IT CLEAR THAT AN ELECTION WHICH DOES NOT MEET THOSE

STANDARDS WILL BE CONSIDERED ILLEGITIMATE. SADC PARTICIPATION IN

SUCH AN EFFORT IS CRUCIAL, AS MUGABE DOES CARE WHAT HIS NEIGHBORS

THINK, AND MIGHT PAUSE AT THE PROSPECT OF ACHIEVING VICTORY AT ALL

COSTS IF ONE OF THE COSTS IS SADC’S REJECTION OF THE ELECTION

OUTCOME.

SULLIVAN

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