The United States already had it cut out for a Morgan Tsvangirai or Robert Mugabe victory in the 2002 presidential elections three months before the poll.
A victory for the Movement for Democratic Change meant that Tsvangirai would have to work with existing Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front and security service contacts so that he could garner enough support to govern.
The US and other international actors were to support Tsvangirai’s efforts to consolidate his victory and to encourage ZANU-PF and the security forces to accept the outcome.
It would therefore be critically important to provide rapid humanitarian and fast-disbursing economic support to the new government.
A Mugabe victory, which the embassy had written off as being only possible by the flagrant use of violence, intimidation and electoral manipulation, was a formula for permanent transition crisis.
The United States was to immediately impose personal targetted sanctions and ensure Zimbabwe’s exclusion from “AGOA, Cotonou, IFI largesse and other benefits”.
“We would make it clear that the US will do nothing to help Zimbabwe emerge from that crisis until a new round of credible elections is held,” the embassy said.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 02HARARE44, LIKELY SCENARIOS; POLICY TOOLS AND TIMING
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
070443Z Jan 02
CONFIDENTIAL PTO7739
PAGE 01 HARARE 00044 01 OF 03 070547Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 USNW-00 DODE-00
DS-00 EUR-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01
VCE-00 M-00 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 SSO-00 SS-00
EPAE-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /005W
——————540795 070548Z /38
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0647
INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY MADRID PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000044
SIPDIS
AF FOR A/S KANSTEINER, P/DAS BELLAMY AND AF/S
NSC FOR SR DIR FRAZIER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/03/2012
SUBJECT: LIKELY SCENARIOS; POLICY TOOLS AND TIMING
CLASSIFIED BY JOSEPH G. SULLIVAN FOR REASONS 1.5B/D
1.(C ) SUMMARY: WITH THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT NOW IN
PLACE, ZIMBABWE FIRMLY ON THE COMMONWEALTH’S CMAG AGENDA
AND THE ELECTION DATE LIKELY TO BE ANNOUNCED BY JANUARY
10, WE ARE APPROACHING A KEY MOMENT IN THE LEAD-UP TO
ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE WILL BE DETERRED BY PRESSURES FROM
THE US, THE EU, THE COMMONWEALTH OR SADC FROM HIS
DETERMINATION TO WIN THE ELECTION BY WHATEVER MEANS
NECESSARY. IT IS INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, THAT
ZANU-PF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION, ELECTORAL
MANIPULATION AND POPULIST USE OF THE LAND ISSUE WILL
DELIVER A MUGABE’S VICTORY IN THE FACE OF A DISASTROUS
ECONOMIC SITUATION AND GROWING FOOD SHORTAGES.
MOREOVER, AS LONGTIME ZANU-PF STRONGMAN EDDISON ZVOBGO
TOLD US, IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT ZIMBABWEANS CAN BE BEATEN
INTO VOTING FOR MUGABE WHEN THEY NOW HAVE ANOTHER VIABLE
ALTERNATIVE.
2.(C ) GIVEN THIS NEXUS OF DEVELOPMENTS, IT IS VERY
IMPORTANT THAT WE BEGIN TO EXAMINE VARIOUS SCENARIOS IN
THE PRE- AND POST-ELECTION PERIODS AND PREPARE POLICY
TOOLS CALIBRATED FOR THE APPROPRIATE MOMENTS. END
SUMMARY
¶3. (C ) CURRENT SCENARIO AND POLICY INSTRUMENTS
(A) THE GOZ: NOTWITHSTANDING DOUBTS AMONG SOME SENIOR
ZANU-PF FIGURES AND QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS OWN HEALTH,
PRESIDENT MUGABE SEEMS DETERMINED TO COMPETE FOR AND TO
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 00044 01 OF 03 070547Z
WIN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. HE WILL UTILIZE
VIOLENCE, INTIMIDATION AND ELECTORAL MANUEVERS DESIGNED
TO REDUCE THE VOTE FOR THE OPPOSITION. ZANU-PF,
NONETHELESS, WANTS THE DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL
LEGITIMACY WHICH NORMALLY STEMS FROM AN ELECTION AND IS
PLANNING TO MAINTAIN THE APPEARANCES OF A CREDIBLE
PROCESS, INCLUDING LIMITED INTERNATIONAL OBSERVATION AND
ELECTION DAY OR WEEK NORMALITY.
(B) MDC AND CIVIL SOCIETY: UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS, THE
OPPOSITION MDC DEFINITELY INTENDS TO STAY IN THE RACE
AND THINKS IT CAN WIN DESPITE THE OBSTACLES. MOST CIVIL
SOCIETY ORGANIZATIONS ARE ALSO COMMITTED TO REMAINING
FULLY ENGAGED IN THE LEGAL, ORGANIZATIONAL AND PUBLIC
EDUCATION FIGHTS TO MAKE THE ELECTION AS FAIR AS
POSSIBLE.(IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT LEGAL APPEALS TO
EXTEND VOTER REGISTRATION PERIOD AND TO FORCE THE
REGISTRAR TO TURN OVER REGISTRATION LISTS HAVE BEEN WON
AND MORE LEGAL CHALLENGES TO THE AMENDED CITIZENSHIP LAW
AND OTHER POTENTIAL ELECTION MANUEVERS ARE PLANNED.)
(C ) INTERNATIONAL ROLE: THE US AND MANY EUROPEANS ARE
PROVIDING CRITICAL SUPPORT TO CIVIL SOCIETY AND OTHER
INDEPENDENT ZIMBABWEAN FORCES, INCLUDING LABOR, THE
INDEPENDENT MEDIA AND HUMAN RIGHTS AND ELECTION WATCHDOG
GROUPS. THE GOZ IS UNLIKELY TO PERMIT EU OR US
OBSERVERS, BUT COMMONWEALTH AND SADC-PF OBSERVERS COULD
STILL PLAY A USEFUL ROLE IF THEY CAN GET ON THE GROUND
AT LEAST THREE-TO-FOUR WEEKS PRIOR TO ELECTIONS. APART
FROM SOUTH AFRICA AND THE SADC PARLIAMENTARY FORUM, IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT SADC AS AN INSTITUTION, NIGERIA OR
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 HARARE 00044 01 OF 03 070547Z
THE AU WILL PLAY A HELPFUL ROLE IN PRESSING FOR FREER
ELECTIONS.
(D) POLICY INSTRUMENTS: IT IS IMPORTANT THAT WE MAINTAIN
THE PRESSURE SO THAT ELECTION CONDITIONS NOT DETERIORATE
FURTHER, BUT WE SHOULD NOT EXPECT THE GOZ TO ALTER ITS
COURSE AS A RESULT OF ANY ADDITIONAL PRESSURES WE CAN
REALISTICALLY BRING TO BEAR. JUST AS IMPORTANTLY, THE
US, OTHER INTERNATIONAL ACTORS, AND ZIMBABWEAN CIVIL
SOCIETY MUST DO NOTHING TO UNDERMINE THE PROSPECTS OF
THE MDC FOR WINNING DESPITE THE OBSTACLES PLACED IN ITS
WAY. FOR INSTANCE, ANY PRELIMINARY JUDGMENT WE RENDER
ON ELECTION CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT PROVIDE GROUNDS FOR
THE GOZ TO SHUT DOWN THE ELECTION PROCESS. SIMILARLY,
WE NEED TO AVOID ANY MEASURES WHICH COULD GIVE THE GOZ
BASIS TO SHUT DOWN OUR SUPPORT FOR CSO’S, INCLUDING
VISAS FOR TRAINERS, EXPERTS AND EMBASSY STAFF. WE WILL
WISH TO COORDINATE CLOSELY WITH THE COMMONWEALTH, SOUTH
AFRICA AND THE EU SO THAT WE ACT AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE IN
HARMONY. WE NEED TO ENGAGE WITH SADC AND NIGERIA TO
PREVENT THEM FROM UNDERMINING INTERNATIONAL PRESSURES ON
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PTO7741
PAGE 01 HARARE 00044 02 OF 03 070548Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 USNW-00 DODE-00
DS-00 EUR-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01
VCE-00 M-00 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 SSO-00 SS-00
EPAE-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /005W
——————5407A4 070548Z /38
O 070443Z JAN 02
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0648
INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY MADRID PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 000044
SIPDIS
AF FOR A/S KANSTEINER, P/DAS BELLAMY AND AF/S
NSC FOR SR DIR FRAZIER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/03/2012
SUBJECT: LIKELY SCENARIOS; POLICY TOOLS AND TIMING
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 00044 02 OF 03 070548Z
THE GOZ TO REDUCE VIOLENCE AND TO ORGANIZE A MINIMALLY
CREDIBLE ELECTION.
4.(C ) SCENARIO FOR SHARP DETERIORATION AND POLICY
RESPONSES
(A) GOZ: IT IS NOT LIKELY, BUT POSSIBLE THAT THE CURRENT
SITUATION COULD DETERIORATE SHARPLY PRIOR TO ELECTIONS,
MOST LIKELY IF THE GOVERNMENT WERE TO CONCLUDE THAT IT
STOOD TO LOSE, OR IF LOOMING FOOD SHORTAGES WERE TO
PRODUCE PUBLIC DISTURBANCES. THE GOVERNMENT COULD
IMPOSE A STATE OF EMERGENCY, ALTHOUGH, EVEN THEN, THERE
IS NO CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISION FOR PRESIDENT MUGABE
REMAINING IN OFFICE BEYOND APRIL 1. THE GOZ COULD ALSO
SHUT DOWN THE OPPOSITION MDC OR ARREST ITS LEADERSHIP ON
THE PRETENSE OF ITS ALLEGED INVOLVEMENT IN TERRORIST
ACTIVITIES OR EVEN COMMISSION OFF-LINE ASSASSINATION OF
OPPOSITION LEADERS. IN THE COURSE OF THE ELECTION
COUNT, THE ZANU GOVERNMENT COULD REACT TO AN APPARENT
OPPOSITION VICTORY BY INERRUPTING OR SHUTTING DOWN THE
PROCESS ON ONE OF A NUMBER OF PRETEXTS, NONE OF WHICH
WOULD BE CREDIBLE.
(B) OPPOSITION, CIVIL SOCIETY AND THE PUBLIC: OPPOSITION
AND CIVIL SOCIETY WOULD LIKELY BE FORCED UNDERGROUND
UNDER THESE SCENARIOS. PENT-UP PUBLIC FRUSTRATIONS
WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO CIVIL DISTURBANCES. THE WILLINGNESS
OF SECURITY FORCES TO PUT DOWN THESE DISTURBANCES
VIOLENTLY WOULD BECOME THE KEY ISSUE.
(C ) INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE: THE INTERNATIONAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 00044 02 OF 03 070548Z
COMMUNITY, INCLUDING THE EU, THE COMMONWEALTH AND THE US
WOULD NEED TO RESPOND RAPIDLY AND HARSHLY TO SUCH A
SCENARIO WITH THE CLEAR MESSAGE THAT SUCH A DEVELOPMENT
CANNOT STAND. IF THE SITUATION REMAINED FLUID, WE WOULD
WISH TO COMMUNICATE TO SECURITY OFFICIALS THE
UNACCEPTABILITY OF AN UNCONSTITUTIONAL AND ILLEGAL
REGIME AND ENCOURAGE THEIR COOPERATION IN A RETURN TO
LEGALITY. IT WILL ALSO BE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT TO HAVE
SOLID AND STRONG RESPONSE FROM SOUTH AFRICA, SADC AND
NIGERIA, AS WELL AS FROM UN SYG ANNAN AND THE UNSC.
UNDER THIS SCENARIO, FULL AND PUNITIVE PERSONAL
SANCTIONS SHOULD BE IMPLEMENTED IMMEDIATELY AND SELECTED
ECONOMIC AND DIPLOMATIC MEASURES SHOULD BE CONSIDERED.
5.(C ) POST-ELECTION SCENARIOS
(A) MDC VICTORY: IN THE EVENT OF AN MDC VICTORY, THE MDC
IS LIKELY TO WORK THROUGH EXISTING ZANU-PF AND SECURITY
SERVICE CONTACTS TO SEEK TO ASSURE THAT TSVANGIRAI CAN
TAKE OFFICE AND THAT HE WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT IN
THE PARLIAMENT AND THE PUBLIC SERVICE TO GOVERN. MUGABE
HARD-LINERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO ATTEMPT TO BLOCK THIS BY
WHATEVER MEANS AT THEIR DISPOSAL. WE AND OTHER
INTERNATIONAL ACTORS WILL WANT TO SUPPORT TSVANGIRAI’S
EFFORTS TO CONSOLIDATE HIS VICTORY AND TO ENCOURAGE
ZANU-PF AND THE SECURITY FORCES TO ACCEPT THE OUTCOME.
IN VIEW OF THE CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FOOD CRISIS, IT WILL
BE CRITICALLY IMPORTANT TO PROVIDE RAPID HUMANITARIAN
AND FAST-DISBURSING ECONOMIC SUPPORT TO THE NEW
GOVERNMENT.
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 HARARE 00044 02 OF 03 070548Z
(B) A MUGABE VICTORY IN A SERIOUSLY FLAWED ELECTION: A
MUGABE VICTORY, WHICH WE BELIEVE IS ONLY POSSIBLE BY THE
FLAGRANT USE OF VIOLENCE, INTIMIDATION AND ELECTORAL
MANIPULATION, IS A FORMULA FOR PERMANENT TRANSITION
CRISIS — ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL. REGARDLESS OF LIKELY
POLICY REVERSALS INTENDED TO APPEAL TO DOMESTIC
INVESTORS AND INTERNATIONAL DONORS, THERE IS LIKELY TO
BE NO REVERSAL OF ZIMBABWE’S DECLINE. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO, WE SHOULD PROCEED TO IMPLEMENT THE PERSONAL
TARGETTED SANCTIONS ENVISIONED IN ZDERA AGAINST A WIDE,
BUT CAREFULLY SELECTED LIST OF REGIME LEADERS, INCLUDING
THOSE WHO HAVE MANIPULATED THE A-2 LAND GRAB TO THEIR
PERSONAL BENEFIT. WE SHOULD SEEK TO MAINTAIN A WORKING
RELATIONSHIP HERE, PARTICULARLY FOR THE ABILITY IT GIVES
US TO WORK WITH OTHER ZIMBABWEANS AND CONTINUE SOME
PROGRAMS OF SUPPORT FOR THE ZIMBABWEAN PEOPLE, E.G.
HIV/AIDS. WE AND OTHER INTERNATIONALS — THE
COMMONWEALTH, THE EU AND US — SHOULD ALSO ASSURE
ZIMBAWE’S EXCLUSION FROM AGOA, COUTONOU, IFI LARGESSE
AND OTHER BENEFITS. ZIMBABWE AND THE ZANU-PF WILL
REMAIN IN CONTINUING CRISIS IN THIS SCENARIO AND WE
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PTO7742
PAGE 01 HARARE 00044 03 OF 03 070548Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 USNW-00 DODE-00
DS-00 EUR-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01
VCE-00 M-00 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 SSO-00 SS-00
EPAE-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /005W
——————5407A8 070548Z /38
O 070443Z JAN 02
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0649
INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY MADRID PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 000044
SIPDIS
AF FOR A/S KANSTEINER, P/DAS BELLAMY AND AF/S
NSC FOR SR DIR FRAZIER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/03/2012
SUBJECT: LIKELY SCENARIOS; POLICY TOOLS AND TIMING
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 00044 03 OF 03 070548Z
WOULD MAKE IT CLEAR THAT THE US WILL DO NOTHING TO HELP
ZIMBABWE EMERGE FROM THAT CRISIS UNTIL A NEW ROUND OF
CREDIBLE ELECTIONS IS HELD.
SULLIVAN
CONFIDENTIAL
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