The disarray in the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front following its sacking of rebels, including former Vice-President Joice Mujuru, in 2014 could be a game-changer and the road to the 2018 elections could be very bumpy.
According to continental think tank, Afrobarometer, ZANU-PF benefitted tremendously from the inclusive government of 2009 to 2013 resulting in more than 60 percent of Zimbabweans saying they trusted its leader President Robert Mugabe almost double the 30 percent that trusted him in 2005 and 2009.
The think-tank says though the power sharing government failed, the economy began to recover, dollarization ended hyperinflation and schools and hospitals opened.
The opposition Movement for Democratic Change had a hand in this turnaround, but Afrobarometer says ZANU-PF was better at claiming credit for these improvements.
“..Power-sharing was disastrous for the MDC. The MDC was hit by well-publicized corruption scandals; it allowed its grass-roots structures to decay; and its 2013 election campaign didn’t focus on its policy track record. Mugabe’s increased support in the 2015 Afrobarometer survey occur(red) alongside a quite drastic fall in support for the MDC,” it says.
This situation is now different. It is ZANU-PF that is now in disarray because polarization tends to help parties to build their internal cohesion, reinforces the commitment of their activists, and makes it harder for third parties to emerge. By reducing polarization, the power-sharing government made it harder for the MDC to present itself as sharply different from ZANU-PF, and the party lost support and splintered into many factions.
“Something very similar has taken place within ZANU-PF. Starting at the end of 2014, high-profile factional struggles and purges have rocked the ruling party. This has likely weakened the ruling party’s support base considerably,” Afrobarometer says.
“The disarray within ZANU-PF has been a huge game-changer in Zimbabwe. Mugabe’s health remains uncertain, and several individuals within ZANU-PF — including first lady Grace Mugabe — are battling over succession.”
This analysis is totally different from that of some of the ZANU-PF members. Former Mashonaland East Provincial Affairs minister Simba Mudarikwa once argued that ZANU-PF was like a stick of TNT, susceptible to ignition and disintegration.
ZANU-PF was holding together because of the threat of MDC-T and foreign pressure, he argued. He likened the party to a troop of baboons incessantly fighting among themselves, but coming together to face an external threat.
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