Shamuyarira says Gono would be massacred if he stepped into politics

Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front information boss Nathan Shamuyarira told United States ambassador to Zimbabwe Christopher Dell that central bank governor Gideon Gono would be massacred if he stepped into the political ring. 

Shamuyarira was briefing Dell on the upcoming ZANU-PF conference that was due at Goromonzi and the issue of succession which he said would only be finalised in 2007.

When Dell suggested that Gono appeared to be in the running for succession, Shamuyarira, a former journalist, said Gono was a good performer on economic matters and made “good copy” but he would “be massacred” if he stepped into the political ring.

Full cable:

Viewing cable 06HARARE1413, ZANU-PF POLITBURO MEMBER OFFERS SUCCESSION INSIGHTS

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001413 

SIPDIS 

SIPDIS 

AF/S FOR S. HILL 

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN 

ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 

ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2016 

TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI

SUBJECT: ZANU-PF POLITBURO MEMBER OFFERS SUCCESSION INSIGHTS 

Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell under Section 1.4 b/d 

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Summary 

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¶1. (C) ZANU-PF Secretary for Information and Publicity 

Nathan Shamuyarira told the Ambassador on November 28 that 

the forthcoming ruling party conference was unlikely to 

finalize the succession issue. The party would instead 

settle the issue in 2007. He opined that the presidential 

and parliamentary elections should be unified in 2008 so that 

ZANU-PF could capitalize on the opposition's disarray. 

Commenting on potential successors, Shamuyarira added the 

names of former-Finance Minister Simba Makoni, Speaker of 

Parliament John Nkomo, and Vice President Joseph Msika to the 

traditional mix. The Old Guard ZANU-PF insider recited the 

party's now stale attack on sanctions, but said he agreed 

with the Ambassador's contention that both sides must instead 

look to the future. End Summary. 

----------------------------------------- 

Succession To Wait Until After Conference 

----------------------------------------- 

¶2. (C) Asked by the Ambassador for his expectations for the 

ruling party's December 14-17 conference, Shamuyarira said 

expectations were too high and that the succession debate 

would likely only be finalized in 2007. Unlike the party 

congress held every four years, the annual party conference 

had no mandate to decide major policy issues, according to 

Shamuyarira. With 7,000 people expected, the conference was 

not the proper venue for a serious discussion. Instead, the 

conference would review measures to turn around the economy. 

¶3. (C) Shamuyarira added that the ZANU-PF Politburo had 

agreed to merge the presidential election scheduled for 2008 

with the parliamentary election scheduled for 2010, but had 

yet to decide on how to merge them or who should stand as the 

party's presidential candidate. These issues would be left 

for 2007. Rather than amend the constitution to extend the 

president's term until 2010, Shamuyarira said he favored 

accelerating the parliamentary election to 2008. Such as 

move would be easier, as the president can dissolve the 

legislature at any time. Shamuyarira commented that an early 

parliamentary election would also allow the ruling party to 

capitalize on divisions within the opposition to win 

additional seats in the body. 

-------------------------- 

Field of Successors Widens 

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¶4. (C) Surveying the list of would-be successors to Mugabe, 

Shamuyarira mentioned former Finance Minister and fellow 

Politburo member Simba Makoni, Speaker of Parliament John 

Nkomo, and Vice President Joseph Msika in addition to the 

traditional mix of Joyce Mujuru and Emmerson Mnangagwa. 

Makoni was a serious candidate, although "a dark horse" due 

to his absence from the political limelight. Shamuyarira 

cautioned that Msika should not be written off and that 

despite his advanced age (N.B. he turns 84 in early December) 

he remains vigorous and strong. Shamuyarira also noted 

Nkomo's statement to journalists last Friday that he was 

interested in the presidency. Should Msika not run, 

Shamuyarira said that Mugabe, out of commitment to the Unity 

Accord that merged the Ndebele and Shona ethnic components of 

the ruling party, may support the minority Nkomo's bid. 

HARARE 00001413 002 OF 002 

¶5. (C) Shamuyarira dismissed the Ambassador's suggestion 

that Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono also appeared to be in 

the running. Gono was a good performer on economic matters 

and made "good copy," according to the former journalist, but 

he would "be massacred" if he stepped into the political ring. 

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Looking Beyond the Sanctions Rhetoric 

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¶6. (C) The Politburo member recited the seemingly obligatory 

condemnation of Western sanctions and supposed propaganda 

that precluded investment. In response, the Ambassador noted 

that during his more than two years in Zimbabwe not one US 

investor had approached him for advice. Instead, foreign 

investors were assessing Zimbabwe's economic and political 

fundamentals on their own and staying away due to the GOZ's 

assault on rule of law and economic mismanagement. 

¶7. (C) Furthermore, the Ambassador said that the USG was 

interested in playing a constructive role in Zimbabwe's 

future, not in arguing about the past. The USG was eager to 

join a discussion of what Zimbabwe's future should look like, 

but first needed to see that the GOZ had the political will 

to address the governance question. Shamuyarira agreed, 

saying that "we should look to the future, not live in the 

past." Further opening the door, he conceded that "we've 

made our own mistakes". 

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Comment 

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¶8. (C) Providing an apt analogy for today's ZANU-PF, the 

78-year old Shamuyarira did not look well ) his skin 

appeared chalky and gray, and despite an over-sized hearing 

aid the Ambassador periodically had to repeat himself several 

times to be heard. Also showing his advanced age, 

Shamuyarira opened the meeting by noting that many of his 

schoolmates have since retired ) and presumably many more 

have died also. Perhaps because of his age, he was 

remarkably candid with the Ambassador. Although the media 

and business community have for some time been muting the 

possibility of Makoni as a reform-minded successor, this is 

the first mention we have heard from a Politburo member. 

¶9. (C) As for the up-coming ZANU-PF conference, we are not 

holding our breath that the succession issue will be 

finalized by year end. Instead, this year's meeting is 

shaping up to be little more than a highly-choreographed pep 

rally, much like last year's and the ones before it. As 

Shamuyarira suggests, Mugabe is expected to postpone a 

decision on succession until next year. While pressure is 

mounting for him to make an anointment, the inclusion of new 

names into the succession hopper probably serves to mitigate 

these stresses as new factions emerge and focus their ire on 

party rivals, rather than Mugabe himself. Nkomo's statement 

that he might become a candidate was probably meant to signa 

his interest in the vice presidency slot and to remind Mugabe 

that the latter cannot assume other party leaders will 

automatically fall into line behind the president's choice 

for a successor. Meanwhile, Shamuyarira is being 

disingenuous concerning Msika, who is widely believed to be 

in poor health and anxious to leave public office. 

DELL

(34 VIEWS)