Sata another Mugabe?

Patriotic Front leader Michael Sata would take measures to strengthen the power of the executive if he was elected president and would not be above imposing martial law to ensure that he had absolute power.

This was said five years before Sata was finally elected President of Zambia.

At the time Sata was challenging Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa and was ahead in one of the polls.

Commentators said Sata was Zambia’s equivalent of Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe.

Others, however, thought that he would not be particularly different from Mwanawasa as a leader-though perhaps somewhat more overtly corrupt.

Full cable:

Viewing cable 06LUSAKA1264, ZAMBIAN ELECTIONS–MWANAWASA LEADS, BUT SATA GAINS

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INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LUSAKA 001264 

SIPDIS 

SIPDIS 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2016 

TAGS: PGOV ZA

SUBJECT: ZAMBIAN ELECTIONS--MWANAWASA LEADS, BUT SATA GAINS 

REF: A. LUSAKA 1054 

     ¶B. LUSAKA 702 

     ¶C. LUSAKA 693 

     ¶D. 05 LUSAKA 1098 

Classified By: CDA ANDREW PASSEN, SECTION 1.4 (B) AND (D) 

¶1. (C) Summary: With less than two weeks until September 28 

national elections, the second-runner, Michael Sata, appears 

to be gaining ground on President Levy Mwanawasa, who 

nonetheless still enjoys a comfortable lead. Results from 

voter opinion polls vary, and one poll that gives Sata a 

decisive margin appears to lack credibility. Two other 

polls, based on surveys conducted in August, show Sata 

gaining popularity, including in areas outside the poor urban 

settings where he has always enjoyed strong support. 

Complicating matters, the Electoral Commission of Zambia on 

September 13 validated and referred to the Director of Public 

Prosecutions a complaint against Sata for making false 

statements when filing his nomination. It is not clear what, 

if any, follow up action against Sata will be possible before 

the election, but it is likely that any action the GRZ takes 

will be perceived as politically motivated, to the possible 

detriment of the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy and 

the President. End summary. 

POLLS SHOW MWANAWASA RETAINS LEAD, WITH SATA GAINING 

¶2. (SBU) The Steadman Group, which has experience with 

polling in Kenya, an affiliation with Gallup International, 

and a credible reputation, announced results of an election 

poll on September 4, 2006. The poll covered all nine 

provinces, had a sample size of 2,000 nation-wide 

respondents, with a 40:60 urban to rural ratio. The margin 

of error reported was plus/minus 2 percent with a 95 percent 

confidence level. The poll was carried out between August 11 

and 19, 2006, using face-to-face interviews.   The Embassy 

does not know how the Steadman poll was funded. 

¶3. (U) Respondents viewed poverty and unemployment as the 

"most pressing problems facing Zambia today," followed by 

HIV/AIDS and corruption. Ninety-four percent of registered 

voters indicated they plan to vote on September 28. 

Regarding "qualities they considered most important for 

person vying for the presidency in Zambia" respondents cited 

leadership ability, education, "what they promise to 

deliver," track record, and wealth as the most important 

factors. 

¶4. (U) Respondents' preferences for presidential candidates 

were: 33 percent for Levy Mwanawasa (ruling MMD party); 24 

percent for Michael Sata (Patriotic Front); 15 percent for 

Hakainde Hichilema (United Democratic Alliance); 7 percent 

for other candidates; 6 percent "don't know;" and 14 percent 

"refused to answer." Based on the reported responses, if 

Sata received votes from those who refused to answer, he 

would come out ahead of Mwanawasa in the September 28 polls. 

¶5. (SBU) In provincial breakdowns, Mwanawasa had the 

strongest showing in Northwestern (52 percent), Northern (38 

percent), Western (33 percent), and Copperbelt (34 percent, 

just ahead of Sata's 33 percent) Provinces, while Hichilema 

was strong in his home-base, Southern Province. Sata enjoyed 

his strongest support in Luapula (48 percent), Lusaka (33 

percent to Mwanawasa's 26 percent) and Northern (29 percent) 

Provinces, but was extremely weak in Southern, Western and 

Northwestern Provinces. Some local observers believe that 

Sata's Patriotic Front party's limited presence in several 

provinces may be a key factor in keeping Sata from winning 

the presidential race. 

¶6. (U) Unnamed individuals from the University of Zambia 

(UNZA) reportedly announced on September 8 results of a poll 

conducted "during August 2006" with 3,800 Zambian adults in 

all nine provinces, asking simply who they would vote for in 

the September 28 presidential election. According to media 

reports, 52 percent of respondents said they would vote for 

Michael Sata, 27 percent for Levy Mwanawasa, and 20 percent 

for Hakainde Hichilema. Results by province were not 

available. No margin of error was reported with the results. 

 Embassy has been unable to track down a copy of the poll or 

the names of individuals responsible for the poll. As a 

result, we have serious doubts about the poll's credibility. 

¶7. (U) On September 9, political science professor at UNZA, 

Neo Simutanyi, reported results of a second poll of 3,000 

respondents conducted by his firm, Pangolin Consulting, 

between August 24-28, 2006. The poll was funded by the 

Zambian Elections Fund, which receives its support from 

several donor governments, including the UK, the Netherlands 

and Norway. The second survey expanded coverage from six to 

all nine provinces, and dropped two questions relating to 

health. One-third of respondents said the greatest area of 

LUSAKA 00001264 002 OF 004 

concern to them was "agriculture" while 22 percent said 

education was their greatest concern. The constitution and 

election-related issues were of concern to less than one 

percent of respondents. Key questions and responses from the 

poll are summarized below. 

A) Are you satisfied with the performance of the government 

in the last five years? 

Yes: 58 percent; No: 38 percent; Don't know/no answer: 4 

percent. 

B) If elections were to be held tomorrow, which party would 

you vote for? 

MMD: 50 percent; PF: 19 percent; UDA: 16 percent; other/none: 

3 percent; undecided: 12 percent. 

C) If elections were to be held tomorrow, which party leader 

would you vote for? 

Mwanawasa: 51 percent; Sata: 19 percent; Hichilema: 16 

percent; other/none: 3 percent; undecided: 11 percent. 

¶8. (U) The Pangolin poll also provided provincial breakdowns. 

 President Mwanawasa had clear majorities in five provinces: 

Western (81 percent); Northern (66 percent); Central (64 

percent); Northwestern (56 percent); and Eastern (44 

percent). The President's support in Lusaka (36 percent), 

Copperbelt (41 percent) and Luapula (40 percent) Provinces 

represents a slim lead over the PF's Michael Sata, who 

garnered 32 percent in Lusaka, 31 percent in Copperbelt, 

and30 percent in Luapula Provinces. The UDA candidate 

Hakainde Hichilema had the greatest support in the Southern 

Province (45 percent, to Mwanawasa's 36 percent) and also had 

24 percent in Northwestern Province, 19 percent in Eastern, 

and 15 percent in Copperbelt.   Undecided respondents 

accounted for 24 percent in Luapula, 20 percent in Eastern, 

17 percent in Lusaka and 16 percent in Northwestern. The 

summary of the poll notes that the overall percentage of 

undecided voters fell from 23 percent from the first poll, in 

July 2006, to 12 percent in the s 

econd poll in August. According to the August poll results, 

even if Michael Sata gained the support of all remaining 

undecided voters, he would not catch up to President 

Mwanawasa. 

PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK FOR PRESIDENTIAL SUPPORT 

¶9. (SBU) The poll results are generally consistent with what 

we understand to have been the campaign strategies of the 

three leading parties, based in most cases on existing ties 

and relationships around the country. President Mwanawasa 

has focused primarily on appealing to voters in Central 

Province--where Mwanawasa's father hails from, and where the 

Provincial Minister, Kennedy Shepande, has done extensive 

grassroots organizing on the MMD's behalf--and in more 

remote, rural parts of the country. The Litunga, the Chief 

of the Lozi people in Western Province, is a Mwanawasa 

supporter, and members of prominent Lozi families are part of 

the ruling MMD government, including Ambassador to 

Washington, Inonge Mbikusita-Lewanika. Opposition parties 

have not gained much popularity in the Western Province. The 

expansion of mining activity and related road-building 

projects in North Western Province have resulted in an 

economic boom that is credited to Mwanwasa's regime and has 

earned him popularity. Due to conne 

ctions through his mother and his wife, Mwanawasa enjoys some 

support in the Copperbelt as well.  Mwanawasa has long 

conceded that his party's showing in densely populated urban 

areas will not be as strong as in most rural areas. 

¶10. (SBU) The UDA coalition's strongest support base by far 

is the Southern Province, home of the United Party for 

National Development (UPND), but Hichilema continues to try 

to broaden his appeal elsewhere in Zambia. He has been 

campaigning actively in Lusaka and the Copperbelt and trying 

to woo traditional leaders in the Northern and Northwestern 

Provinces. Some political observers note that both Hichilema 

and his party are still viewed by many as having strong 

tribal linkages, which turns off some prospective voters. 

Some pockets of support exist in and around Livingstone for 

the former contender for the UPND party presidency, Sakwiba 

Sikota, who now heads the United Liberal Party, which is 

allied with the Patriotic Front. The United National 

Independence Party and Forum for Democracy and Development, 

member parties of the UDA coalition, may help deliver more of 

the undecided voters in Eastern Province to Hichilema, but 

the MMD also enjoys support in Eastern Province, thanks to 

some prominent defections such as that of the popular 

Rosemary Banda, from Milanzi. 

¶11. (SBU) PF leader Michael Sata's targeted audience has 

consistently been unemployed or underemployed urban dwellers 

in Lusaka and the Copperbelt. Sata enjoys significant 

support in the urban sectors of Lusaka Province, and 

LUSAKA 00001264 003 OF 004 

anecdotal evidence reported by Embassy's local staff 

underscores this popularity: reportedly, local minibus 

conductors are asking prospective passengers if they are for 

"the boat" (the symbol of Sata's Patriotic Front) or "the 

clock" (the ruling MMD party's symbol)--and only allow PF 

supporters on board. One reported remark by a potential Sata 

voter was: In the last election we voted for the candidate 

with the "right" credentials (Mwanawasa is a lawyer) but what 

did that get us? Now we think it may be time for a change, 

even to someone not so "right." 

¶12. (SBU) In recent weeks, Sata has expanded his campaigning 

to Luapula--where he already enjoys support, thanks to his 

close ties with former President Chiluba, who comes from 

Luapula, and the support of other senior politicians who 

defected from the MMD to the PF earlier in the year (Ref 

A)--and to Northern Province, where he poses a more direct 

threat to a support base of the MMD. Sata comes from 

Northern Province, but so does MMD Vice President Lupando 

Mwape. The province's vote may be split between PF and MMD 

as a result. 

¶13. (C) The British High Commissioner told us that he 

recently encountered Sata during a trip to Luapula Province. 

He noted that Sata is maintaining a grueling pace, appearing 

at two big rallies every day -- something that Mwanawasa, 

still recovering from the effects of an April stroke, cannot 

manage. While campaigning in Luapula, Sata promised to drop 

corruption charges against native son Chiluba. In Northern 

Province, Sata has promised to allow former Director of 

Intelligence Xavier Chungu to return to Zambia without fear 

of facing corruption charges. It is widely rumored that 

Chungu, who hails from Northern Province, provides financial 

support to Sata's campaign. 

A NEW TWIST-POTENTIAL CASE AGAINST SATA 

¶14. (SBU) Former Minister of Youth, Sports and Child 

Development (and MMD national election vice chairman), George 

Chulumanda brought a complaint against Michael Sata regarding 

claims Sata made in his required financial disclosure 

statements when he formally filed as a presidential candidate 

in mid-August. Sata claimed assets that included Kwachas 350 

million (about $80,000) owed to him by Chulumanda as a result 

of a judgment in a defamation case in 2004. ECZ Chairperson 

Justice Irene Mambilima told donor representatives on 

September 14 that the ECZ carefully checked court records and 

determined that the judgment in the defamation case had been 

set aside in March 2005, and no money was owed to Sata by 

Chulumanda. The case is continuing and is scheduled to go to 

trial in 2007. Mambilima commented that if Sata were to be 

elected President, and then the case against him proceeded 

and he was found guilty, the election results should then be 

nullified. 

¶15. (U) As a result of the documented false declaration by 

Sata, the ECZ, which lacks authority to take action on the 

complaint under the current Electoral Law, referred the case 

to the Director of Public Prosecutions for further action. 

The DPP has made no comment, nor has the ruling MMD 

government, about the referral. PF Secretary General Guy 

Scott told the press on September 14 that Michael Sata would 

remain the party's presidential candidate and "nobody had the 

power to remove him from the ballot." Lawyers representing 

the PF reportedly accused the ECZ of exceeding its powers and 

threatened possible legal action against the ECZ. 

¶16. (C) Former Chairperson of the Electoral Reform Technical 

Committee and respected attorney, Mwangala Zaloumis, 

commented to P/E Officers on September 14 that the ERTC had 

recommended that the ECZ be given authority to disqualify 

candidates who make false declarations, but this 

recommendation was not included in the new Electoral Act 

passed into law earlier in 2006 (Ref B). She also noted that 

if Sata were to win the Presidency, he could not be charged 

until after he stepped down from office, as the President 

enjoys immunity from prosecution. (Note: The Zambian 

constitution provides immunity for acts undertaken by a 

President while in office. End note.) Zaloumis and several 

thoughtful colleagues from the Energy Regulation Board 

expressed concerns to P/E Officers over Sata's winning the 

election and said they believed Sata would take measures that 

strengthen the power of the executive, and would not be above 

imposing martial law to ensure he had "absolute" power. 

Other contacts consider Sata to be Zambia's equivalent to 

Robert Mugabe, while some think his campaign comments are 

just talk, and that he would not be particularly different 

from Mwanawasa as a leader-though perhaps somewhat more 

overtly corrupt. 

¶17. (C) COMMENT: Although the DPP is theoretically 

independent, in the past he has allowed himself to be heavily 

influenced by State House. Guy Scott's reported comments 

LUSAKA 00001264 004 OF 004 

appear intended to provoke the MMD to make an effort to 

disqualify Sata from running. Any action by the DPP on the 

Sata case before the election will be perceived to be the 

result of State House pressure and will be viewed as a purely 

political move, which may cost the MMD support at the polls. 

For quite some time, the Embassy has considered the 

Presidential race to be the MMD's to lose-though Mwanawasa's 

April stroke (Ref C) raised serious questions about his 

health and ability to carry on as a candidate. The 

President's doctors in the UK and Zambia allowed him to 

continue his campaign, and he has maintained a steady pace of 

public campaign appearances. Mwanawasa has never been a 

captivating speaker and he has also shown himself to be very 

thin-skinned when it comes to dealing with critics, Sata 

included (Ref D). With ten days remaining before the 

election, it is still possible that the President could say 

or do something ill-advised that costs him voter support, and 

possibly--though a long shot--the election. 

PASSEN

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