But instead of smoothing ties, during the 2013 campaign, he vowed to crack down on Chinese mining companies, arguing that they are not helpful to Zimbabwean economy.
In the 2018 election, Tsvangirai would be facing either Mugabe or Mnangagwa, and his chance of winning may be even less certain than in 2013. It is doubtful that China would court him again as it did five years ago.
Meanwhile, former Mugabe vice president Joice Mujuru, after leaving ZANU-PF, formed her own party, Zimbabwe People First (ZimPF), and has supported peaceful resistance to Mugabe’s rule. As the 2018 election draws close, Mujuru clearly stated her willingness to compete.
“Mugabe represents the past, represents failures, whereas I, Mujuru, am the bridge to forming the next government that will bring change to Zimbabwe and Zimbabweans,” she recently told the public.
As much as Mujuru tries to paint herself as a different political figure from Mugabe, however, her entire political career up till 2014 was with ZANU-PF, which becomes a liability for her future electoral campaigns.
The potentially worst scenario for China is a rulerless Zimbabwe, with neither of the ZANU-PF factions winning over each other, a destructive but weak opposition party force, uncontrollable social turmoil, and the military stepping in politics.
In that case, it would take years for the country to recover a functional government to run the economy.
China’s existing investments and future interests in a failing Zimbabwe would all come to an end. China needs to avoid the worst scenario, and it seems that hoping for another term of a ZANU-PF-led Zimbabwe, headed by either of the two factions, would be the best way to do so.
By Wang Xinsong- This article first appeared in The Diplomat
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