Political infighting in Zimbabwe threatens China’s investments and interests in its “all-weather friend”

China’s political and economic stake in Zimbabwe is high enough to demand a close watch on developments. At the same time, China has to be careful weighing up its options, because whatever it does is being watched by other African states, who will take China’s actions in Zimbabwe as a reference to what may happen in their future.

China seems to have opted to continue its support of ZANU-PF. Not long after China showed its displeasure over Mugabe’s indigenization move, it shelled out a $5 billion financial rescue package to fund agriculture and housing projects, which would be very helpful to ZANU-PF’s reelection bid.

 Apparently, the deal was finalized during a ministerial delegation’s trip to Beijing led by the G40 frontman, Local Government Minister Saviour Kasukuwere. Some compared Beijing’s package with the “Lima Plan,” the West-backed international financial institutions’ solution to the Zimbabwean economic crisis, which includes a financial package of $2 billion under the condition that Zimbabwe clear its $1.8 arrears to the IFIs.

Struck in Peru on October 2015, the deal was welcomed by Finance Minister Chinamasa, but it has been prevented by Grace Mugabe’s G40 group.

With more cash to be pumped into the national coffer, Mugabe may regain his ability to sustain patronage to supporters. The military is expected to stand with the Mugabe-led civilian government due to their ideological and institutional links. But without sufficient monetary support, Mugabe can’t guarantee a loyal military force. Also, farmers and the youth are important voting populations, and the Chinese financial package for agriculture and housing would help Mugabe win support of these groups.

However, China may already see a more favorable scenario. Letting G40 and Mnangagwa fight each other in a post-Mugabe scenario would be too risky. Rather, through negotiation and economic leverage, China may try to ensure a peaceful power transition while the aging president is still active enough to make such an important decision.

The question is who will receive China’s support.

Some reports argue that Mnangagwa, who received his ideological and military training in Beijing and Nanjing in the 1960s, may be China’s preference, but at this moment, the black box is still closed.

The strongest opposition party to ZANU-PF so far is the Movement for Democratic Change-Tsvangirai (MDC-T) led by Morgan Tsvangirai, who managed to win enough votes to share power with Mugabe as Prime Minister from 2009-2013.

China’s relations with Tsvangirai and the party he leads are very practical. Despite Tsvangirai’s outright criticism of Chinese investments and Beijing’s backing of Mugabe during the 2008 electoral campaign, he was invited to visit China after becoming Prime Minister in 2012 – perhaps because China saw a possibility that he might win the presidential election in 2013.

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