Pius Ncube said Tsvangirai was too weak to lead Zimbabwe

Controversial Bulawayo cleric Archbishop Pius Ncube said the people of Zimbabwe, especially those from Matabeleland, were so scared that they would never rise up against the government.

The people were quite unhappy but would not rise up against the government unless they were led but Movement for Democratic Change leader Morgan Tsvangirai was too weak to lead them as he himself was intimidated by the government.

A cable released by Wikileaks noted that Ncube himself was scared of the government as he had left Zimbabwe the previous year following deaths threats.

The cable said when United States embassy officials met Ncube, he kept them outside his office briefly so that suspected Central Intelligence Organisation agents at the cathedral could see that he was meeting American officials.

Full cable:

Viewing cable 01HARARE3672, A/S KANSTEINER MEETS WITH CROSS SECTION OF

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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

110949Z Dec 01

CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3088

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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0495

INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 HARARE 003672

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY

NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/11

TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON PINS ZI

SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER MEETS WITH CROSS SECTION OF

BULAWAYO SOCIETY

REF: HARARE 3643

CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS:

1.5 (B) AND (D).

¶1. (C) SUMMARY: ON DECEMBER 9, A/S KANSTEINER MET WITH

A WIDE CROSS-SECTION OF BULAWAYO SOCIETY TO DISCUSS THE

RECENT POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN THAT CITY, ONGOING

GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ) ATTEMPTS TO SUBVERT THE

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, THE DETERIORATING ECONOMY AND

LOOMING FOOD SHORTAGES, PASSAGE OF THE ZIMBABWE

DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA), AND WHAT

ROLE THE U.S. MIGHT PLAY IN HELPING ZIMBABWE OUT OF ITS

CURRENT CRISIS. OVERALL, OUR INTERLOCUTORS PAINTED

BULAWAYO, AND THE ENTIRE MATABELELAND REGION, AS AN AREA

UNDER SIEGE BY THE GOZ, AND ONE LIVING IN FEAR OF MORE

MUGABE-LED VIOLENCE AND REPRESSION. END SUMMARY.

¶2. (C) ON DECEMBER 9, A/S KANSTEINER AND AMBASSADOR

SULLIVAN, ALONG WITH SPECIAL ASSISTANT THOMAS WOODS AND

POLOFF (NOTETAKER), MET WITH A WIDE CROSS-SECTION OF

CIVIL SOCIETY, OPPOSITION AND LOCAL OFFICIALS IN

BULAWAYO. IN SEPARATE MEETINGS, KANSTEINER MET: SHARI

EPPEL, DIRECTOR OF AMANI TRUST/BULAWAYO, A WELL-

RESPECTED HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATION; ERIC BLOCH, A

PROMINENT ECONOMIST AND COLUMNIST; MOVEMENT FOR

DEMOCRATIC CHANGE VICE-PRESIDENT GIBSON SIBANDA, MDC

SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE, AND MDC MP FOR

SIPDIS

BULAWAYO SOUTH DAVID COLTART; HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVIST AND

“DAILY NEWS” PART-OWNER JUDITH TODD AND MICHAEL NDUBIWA,

THE CHAIRMAN OF THE NATIONAL AIDS COUNCIL; ARCHBISHOP

PIUS NCUBE; AND BULAWAYO MAYOR JAPHET NDABENI-NCUBE.

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03       HARARE 03672 01 OF 05 111246Z

BULAWAYO UNDER SIEGE

——————–

¶3. (C) NEARLY ALL THOSE A/S KANSTEINER MET WITH HAD A

TALE TO TELL RELATED TO THE POLITICAL VIOLENCE THAT

WRACKED BULAWAYO IN MID-NOVEMBER. MAYOR NDEBENI-NCUBE,

ELECTED ON THE MDC TICKET IN SEPTEMBER, RECOUNTED HIS

OWN CLOSE CALL WITH ANGRY DEMONSTRATORS ON NOVEMBER 16.

SIKHANYISO NDLOVU AND DUMISO DABENGWA — ZANU-PF

POLITBURO MEMBERS WHOSE POLITICAL STARS ARE WANING, THE

MAYOR STATED — STARTED THE TROUBLE BY WHIPPING UP

EMOTIONS AT A ZANU-PF YOUTH RALLY; THE MAJORITY OF THE

YOUTH WERE SHIPPED IN BY TRAIN THE NIGHT BEFORE. THE

GROUP OF SEVERAL HUNDRED THEN PROCEEDED TO TEAR THROUGH

THE STREETS, ATTACKING BYSTANDERS AND LOOTING VENDORS OF

THEIR WARES. FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE THEY ARRIVED AT HIS

OFFICE AT CITY HALL, HE RECEIVED A PHONE CALL FROM AN

MDC OPERATIVE WARNING OF THE IMPENDING DANGER. TAKING

HIS REVOLVER WITH HIM, HE WAS WHISKED TO A DARK OFFICE

IN A DIFFERENT PART OF THE BUILDING AND LOCKED INSIDE,

THE MAYOR SAID. WHEN THE DEMONSTATORS ARRIVED, A GROUP

OF EIGHT WAR VETERANS LED BY THEIR NATIONAL SECRETARY

FOR PROJECTS ANDREW NDLOVU, SOMEHOW GOT INSIDE CITY HALL

AND FORCED A SECURITY GUARD TO TAKE THEM TO THE MAYOR’S

OFFICE. THEY RANSACKED THE OFFICE, TORE UP PAPERS,

THREW FILES OUT THE WINDOW, AND STOLE HIS BRIEFCASE.

THEY LEFT TWO LOGS ON HIS DESK, AN APPARENT WARNING THAT

THEY WOULD BEAT HIM WITH THE CLUBS IF HE RETURNED,

NDABENI-NCUBE STATED. THE DEMONSTRATORS, ESCORTED BY

RIOT POLICE, THEN LEFT TO BURN DOWN THE MDC’S BULAWAYO

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04       HARARE 03672 01 OF 05 111246Z

HEADQUARTERS. SINCE THAT DAY, HE HAS RECEIVED

THREATENING PHONE CALLS, AND STRANGE VEHICLES DRIVE

SLOWLY BY HIS HOME AT NIGHT. ACCORDING TO SHARI EPPEL,

THE VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION OF THE LAST FEW WEEKS IN

BULAWAYO HAS LEFT THE MDC WITHOUT ANY ADMINISTRATIVE

STRUCTURE IN THE CITY. ALTHOUGH GRASS-ROOTS EFFORTS

CONTINUE, MOST OFFICIALS HAVE FLED OR ARE IN HIDING, SHE

CLAIMED.

¶4. (C) THE POLITICAL VIOLENCE OF NOVEMBER 16 HAD A DEEP

IMPACT ON THE RESIDENTS OF THIS NORMALLY QUIET CITY.

THE COMMON DENOMINATOR IN NEARLY EVERY MEETING WITH A/S

KANSTEINER WAS AN EXPRESSION OF FEAR. SHARI EPPEL, A

LONG-TIME RESIDENT OF THE CITY, COMPARED THE ATMOSPHERE

TO THE TIME OF THE “GUKURAHUNDI” MASSACRES OF THE MID-

1980S. SHE COMPARED THE CASE OF A ZANU SENATOR FROM

BEITBRIDGE, MURDERED IN 1984 BY HIS OWN PARTY, TO THE

RECENT CASE OF CAIN NKALA, THE WAR VETERANS LEADER MOST

ZIMBABWEANS BELIEVE WAS KILLED BY STATE AGENTS. SHE

DESCRIBED PRESIDENT MUGABE’S NATIONAL HERO SPEECH AT

NKALA’S FUNERAL AS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THAT OF THE

SENATOR’S IN 1984. THE NDEBELE ARE VERY AFRAID THAT

MUGABE IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER “GUKURAHUNDI”-

TYPE POGROM, EPPEL STATED. HER ORGANIZATION, AMANI

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——————49CDD0 111248Z /48

O 110949Z DEC 01

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0496

INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 05 HARARE 003672

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY

NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/11

TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON PINS ZI

SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER MEETS WITH CROSS SECTION OF

BULAWAYO SOCIETY

TRUST/BULAWAYO, IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON EXHUMING THE

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02       HARARE 03672 02 OF 05 111247Z

BODIES OF THE THOUSANDS KILLED BY FIFTH BRIGADE TROOPS

IN THE 1980S AND TRAINING AN ARGENTINE GROUP CURRENTLY

IN COUNTRY IN FORENSICS. OF THE 4,000 SO FAR EXHUMED

FROM MASS GRAVES AND PROPERLY REBURIED, NEARLY ALL WERE

SHOT AT CLOSE RANGE. SHE CONSERVATIVELY ESTIMATES THAT

10,000 CIVILIANS DIED IN THE GOVERNMENT’S PACIFICATION

CAMPAIGN, AND THE NUMBER COULD BE AS HIGH AS 20,000.

EPPEL SAID THE EXHUMATION PROGRAM IS DESIGNED TO SEEK

JUSTICE FOR THE VICTIMS OF THE ATROCITIES, AND THAT

THERE CAN BE NO RECONCILIATION PROCESS WITHOUT DIRECT

PERSONAL ACCOUNTABILITY FOR THOSE RESPONSIBLE, I.E.,

SENIOR GOZ OFFICIALS.

¶5. (C) BOTH EPPEL AND MDC MP DAVID COLTART APPEALED TO

A/S KANSTEINER TO URGENTLY PRESS THE GOZ TO RELEASE MDC

TREASURER FLETCHER DULINI-NCUBE, WHO WAS DENIED BAIL IN

A DECEMBER 7 HIGH COURT RULING. DULINI-NCUBE, WHO IS 61

AND SUFFERS FROM DIABETES AND HYPERTENSION, HAS BEEN IN

JAIL FOR THREE WEEKS ON CHARGES OF CONSPIRACY TO MURDER

IN THE CAIN NKALA CASE. COLTART SAID THE CHARGES ARE A

COMPLETE FABRICATION AND ARE BASED SOLELY ON THE

CONFESSIONS OF TWO YOUNG MEN, WHO LATER RECANTED THEIR

STORIES AS COERCED UNDER TORTURE. DULINI-NCUBE’S HEALTH

IS DECLINING RAPIDLY, AND HE HAS ALREADY LOST SIGHT IN

ONE EYE. THE MDC IS GOING TO FILE AN APPEAL TO THE

SUPREME COURT ON DECEMBER 10, BUT IT MAY NOT HEAR THE

CASE BEFORE ITS CHRISTMAS ADJOURNMENT. KANSTEINER SAID

WE WOULD MAKE THE APPEAL BASED ON HUMANITARIAN GROUNDS

TO GOZ OFFICIALS HE PLANS TO MEET IN HARARE. (NOTE: THE

ASSISTANT SECRETARY LATER RAISED DULINI-NCUBE’S CASE

WITH SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT — AND ZANU-PF SECRETARY OF

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03       HARARE 03672 02 OF 05 111247Z

ADMINISTRATION — EMMERSON MNANGAGWA. THAT CONVERSATION

IS REPORTED SEPTEL. END NOTE.)

MDC URGING RESTRAINT IN ITS RESPONSE

————————————

¶6. (C) MDC VICE-PRESIDENT GIBSON SIBANDA SAID THE GOZ

IS DOING ITS UTMOST TO PAINT THE OPPOSITION PARTY AS

VIOLENT. BLAMING IT FOR THE CAIN NKALA MURDER AND

ARRESTING DOZENS OF MDC OFFICIALS WAS JUST ONE STEP.

THE GOZ ALSO ACCUSES THE MDC OF OPERATING MILITARY

TRAINING CAMPS IN BOTSWANA, ZAMBIA AND MOZAMBIQUE, WHICH

SIBANDA SUGGESTED IS JUST UTTER NONSENSE AND A SIGN OF

GROWING DESPERATION ON THE PART OF MUGABE. ASKED

WHETHER THE MDC HAS EVER PROVIDED ANY KIND OF MILITARY

TRAINING TO ITS MEMBERS, COLTART REPLIED THAT IT HAS

ONLY TRAINED ABOUT 10 OR 12 BODYGUARDS IN DEFENSIVE

TACTICS TO PROTECT THE PARTY LEADERSHIP. SIBANDA ADDED

THAT IT WOULD BE SUICIDAL FOR THE MDC TO TRY TO FIGHT

THE GOZ IN AN ARMED STRUGGLE. MAYOR NDABENI-NCUBE TOLD

THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY THAT MDC YOUTH WHO ORGANIZE

THEMSELVES TO DEFEND AGAINST ZANU-PF BRUTES AND WAR

VETS, SUCH AS THOSE THAT BURNED SIKHANYISO NDLOVU’S

COLLEGE IN BULAWAYO, ARE TOLD TO AVOID ARMED POLICE AND

SOLDIERS. KANSTEINER ASKED THE MAYOR WHETHER THE MDC

STILL HAS CONTROL OF THE YOUTH. THE MAYOR REPLIED THAT

IT IS DIFFICULT TO CONTROL THEM DESPITE THE ORGANIZED

STRUCTURES IN PLACE. THE YOUTH DON’T INSTIGATE

VIOLENCE, BUT ACT PRIMARILY IN DEFENSE, BY PATROLLING

NEIGHBORHOODS AT NIGHT, FOR EXAMPLE. HOWEVER, IF THE

MDC YOUTH HAD NOT ACTED AGAINST THE ZANU-PF MOBS ON

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04       HARARE 03672 02 OF 05 111247Z

NOVEMBER 16, HE IS CERTAIN MUCH MORE DAMAGE WOULD HAVE

BEFALLEN THE CITY, THE MAYOR STATED.

ELECTORAL IMPEDIMENTS INCREASING FOR MDC

—————————————-

¶7. (C) A/S KANSTEINER ASKED THE MDC OFFICIALS IF THE

MDC INTENDS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE EARLY 2002

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, EVEN IF THE ELECTORAL FIELD IS

TILTED AGAINST THEM. VICE-PRESIDENT SIBANDA SAID THE

MDC NATIONAL EXECUTIVE IS GOING TO MEET TO CONSIDER THE

ISSUE, BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, THE PARTY WOULD

PARTICIPATE. “THE MDC IS THE LAST HOPE FOR MANY

PEOPLE,” HE OPINED, “AND WE WOULD BE LYNCHED IF MORGAN

WITHDREW FROM THE RACE.” NONETHELESS, WE RECOGNIZE THAT

“THE ODDS ARE MOUNTING AGAINST US.” NEW PROPOSED

LEGISLATION, MAINLY AMENDMENTS TO THE ELECTORAL ACT, THE

PUBLIC ORDER AND SECURITY BILL, AND THE ACCESS TO

INFORMATION BILL (REFTEL) WILL HINDER THE MDC’S CAMPAIGN

EFFORT. THE ELECTORAL ACT AMENDMENTS, FOR EXAMPLE,

WOULD PROHIBIT THE PUTTING UP OF CAMPAIGN POSTERS,

WELSHMAN NCUBE POINTED OUT. THE VOTER ROLLS ARE ALSO

BEING DELIBERATELY MANIPULATED IN MATABELELAND. THE

NDEBELE NAMES OF NEW VOTER REGISTRANTS ARE BEING

CONFIDENTIAL

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——————49CDE7 111248Z /48

O 110949Z DEC 01

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0497

INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 05 HARARE 003672

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY

NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/11

TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON PINS ZI

SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER MEETS WITH CROSS SECTION OF

BULAWAYO SOCIETY

DELIBERATELY MISSPELLED OR CHANGED INTO SHONA

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02       HARARE 03672 03 OF 05 111248Z

EQUIVALENTS WITHOUT THE REGISTRANT’S KNOWLEDGE, AND

DIGITS ARE BEING DROPPED FROM NATIONAL ID NUMBERS, WHICH

WILL MAKE IT NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE VOTERS’

REGISTRATION TO BE LOCATED WHEN THEY GO TO VOTE,

ACCORDING TO NCUBE. COLTART ADDED THAT STUDENTS

REGISTERING IN THE CITIES ARE BEING TURNED AWAY IN

DROVES BECAUSE OF A LACK OF NUMEROUS DOCUMENTS PROVING

RESIDENCY. ABOUT 600,000 POTENTIAL FIRST-TIME VOTERS

COULD BE DISENFRANCHISED FROM THE VOTE AS RESULT, HE

SAID. THE MDC PLANS TO FILE A CASE WITH THE SUPREME

COURT ON DECEMBER 10 TO CHALLENGE THE GOZ’S INTENTION TO

REQUIRE ALL VOTERS TO VOTE IN THEIR CONSTITUENCY; THE

CONSTITUTION PROVIDES FOR A COMMON VOTER ROLL THAT

SHOULD PERMIT A VOTER TO CAST A BALLOT ANYWHERE IN THE

COUNTRY, NCUBE STATED.

¶8. (C) MAYOR NDABENI-NCUBE WAS EQUIVOCAL ABOUT THE

MDC’S CHANCES IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, SAYING THAT

THE “ARITHMETIC” WAS ON THE MDC’S SIDE, BUT THE GOZ’S

MANIPULATION OF THE VOTERS’ ROLL COULD TIP THE BALANCE

IN MUGABE’S FAVOR. MATABELELAND, MANICALAND, AND THE

URBAN AREAS ARE WRITE-OFFS FOR ZANU-PF AS THE MDC WILL

WIN 90 PERCENT OF THESE AREAS, HE PREDICTED. TSVANGIRAI

WILL WIN 70 PERCENT OF MIDLANDS, AND 50 PERCENT OF

MASVINGO, WHERE HE WILL GET A BOOST FROM THE NON-

CAMPAIGNING OF THE ZVOBGO ZANU-PF FACTION. MASHONALAND

WILL GARNER FEWER THAN 40 PERCENT OF THE VOTES FOR THE

OPPOSITION LEADER. THESE NUMBERS WOULD PUT TSVANGIRAI

IN THE WIN COLUMN WERE IT NOT FOR THE GOZ’S TILTING OF

THE ELECTORAL PROCESS IN MUGABE’S FAVOR, THE MAYOR

OFFERED.

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03       HARARE 03672 03 OF 05 111248Z

ECONOMY SHRINKS AS FOOD SHORTAGES GROW

————————————–

¶9. (C) ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS IN MUGABE’S DECLINING

POPULARITY HAS BEEN THE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ECONOMY

AND THE COUNTRY’S FOOD SECURITY ALONG WITH IT, ACCORDING

TO ERIC BLOCH, A WIDELY RESPECTED ECONOMIST AND

COLUMNIST BASED IN BULAWAYO. A LOT OF FARMERS ARE

WAITING TO SEE IF THE GOZ CARRIES OUT ITS STATED

INTENTION TO TAKE OVER NEARLY ALL THE COUNTRY’S

COMMERCIAL FARMS. THE REAPING OF TOBACCO IS DUE TO

BEGIN IN MID-DECEMBER, BUT FARMERS MAY DECIDE NOT TO IF

THERE IS NO EXPECTATION OF KEEPING THEIR FARMS, WHICH

WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS FOR THE COUNTRY’S FOREX

FUTURE. THERE IS CURRENTLY ONLY US$30 MILLION PER MONTH

COMING INTO ZIMBABWE, AND NO MORE THAN US$50 TO 60

MILLION PER MONTH MAY BE EXPECTED IN APRIL WHEN THE

TOBACCO SALES BEGIN (US$100 MILLION/MONTH IS NORMAL).

¶10. (C) BLOCH SAID IN JUNE HE ACCOMPANIED FINANCE

MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI TO AN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE

WHERE MAKONI STATED THAT LITTLE CAN BE DONE TO SAVE THE

ZIMBABWEAN ECONOMY UNLESS THREE THINGS HAPPEN: 1) LAW

AND ORDER IS RESTORED, I.E. SQUATTERS ARE REMOVED FROM

FARMS, 2) THE GOZ “STOPS CHANGING ITS POLICIES AS OFTEN

AS WE CHANGE OUR UNDERWEAR,” AND 3) EVERY FARMER IS ABLE

TO PLANT AND HARVEST HIS CROP IN SECURITY. ABSENT THAT,

MAKONI IS SPENDING MONEY HE DOES NOT HAVE TO KEEP THE

ECONOMY AFLOAT. GOZ DEBT HAS SOARED TO BETWEEN 15 AND

19 PERCENT OF GDP. TO RAISE MORE CAPITAL, HE WILL HAVE

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PAGE 04       HARARE 03672 03 OF 05 111248Z

TO GO AFTER INSURANCE COMPANIES AND PENSION FUNDS BY

INCREASING THEIR AMOUNT OF PROSCRIBED ASSETS.

CURRENTLY, 45 PERCENT OF THEIR ASSETS ARE REQUIRED TO BE

IN GOVERNMENT T-BILLS.

¶11. (C) ON THE FOOD SECURITY FRONT, ZIMBABWE WILL

REQUIRE 500 MILLION TONS OF MAIZE BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY

2003 TO COVER THE PREDICTED SHORTFALLS OF DOMESTIC

PRODUCTION, BLOCH PREDICTED; PLANTINGS NOW IN THE

COMMERCIAL AREAS ARE ONLY 60 PERCENT OF WHAT THEY WERE

LAST YEAR. NEXT YEAR, THERE WILL BE A GAP IN MAIZE

AVAILABILITY BETWEEN MARCH AND MAY. WHOEVER WINS THE

ELECTION IS GOING TO HAVE A TERRIBLE PROBLEM ON HIS

HANDS, BLOCH OPINED. IT’S NOT TOO LATE FOR MUGABE TO

TURN THINGS AROUND IF HE STARTS SAYING, AND DOING, THE

RIGHT THINGS NOW, THE ECONOMIST SUGGESTED. PRINCIPALLY,

HE MUST: 1) GO BACK TO A MARKET ECONOMY BY ABANDONING

PRICE AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE CONTROLS, 2) CLEAR OUT THE

FARM SQUATTERS AND ARREST THE PERPETRATORS OF VIOLENCE,

AND 3) CUT BACK ON GOVERNMENT SPENDING — A CUTBACK IN

THE BUDGET OF THE PRESIDENT’S OFFICE WOULD BE A SIGN OF

COMMITMENT. IF THESE THINGS HAPPENED, THE ZIMBABWEAN

ECONOMY COULD START TO TURN AROUND FAIRLY QUICKLY,

ESPECIALLY IN THE MANUFACTURING EXPORT SECTOR. SOME

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——————49CF50 111257Z /48

O 110949Z DEC 01

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0498

INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 05 HARARE 003672

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY

NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/11

TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON PINS ZI

SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER MEETS WITH CROSS SECTION OF

BULAWAYO SOCIETY

FIRMS COULD START EXPORTING AGAIN IN AS LITTLE AS A FEW

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PAGE 02       HARARE 03672 04 OF 05 111257Z

WEEKS. (COMMENT: ALTHOUGH THE MANUFACTURING EXPORT

SECTOR MAY TURN AROUND QUICKLY, THE MAINSTAY OF THE

ZIMBABWEAN ECONOMY REMAINS COMMERCIAL AGRICULTURE, AND

IT WILL LIKELY TAKE YEARS FOR IT TO RECOVER. END

COMMENT.)

ARCHBISHOP: DO NOT EXPECT A REVOLUTION

—————————————

¶12. (C) THE PEOPLE OF ZIMBABWE, AND MATABELELAND IN

PARTICULAR, ARE SO SCARED, THEY WILL NOT RISE UP AGAINST

THE GOVERNMENT, EVEN IF MUGABE WINS RE-ELECTION,

ARCHBISHOP PIUS NCUBE TOLD THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY.

(NOTE: NCUBE, WHO HIMSELF LEFT ZIMBABWE LAST YEAR

BECAUSE OF DEATH THREATS, STOOD WITH THE A/S DELEGATION

AS IT ARRIVED AND BRIEFLY KEPT THEM OUTSIDE HIS OFFICE

BUILDING, APPARENTLY SO THAT SUSPECTED CIO AGENTS IN THE

CATHEDRAL COMPOUND COULD SEE THAT HE WAS MEETING WITH

AMERICAN OFFICIALS. END NOTE.) THE ARCHBISHOP

PREDICTED THAT THE VIOLENCE WILL INTENSIFY BEFORE THE

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, WHICH WILL NOT BE FREE AND FAIR.

EVEN THOUGH EDUCATED AND UNEDUCATED ZIMBABWEANS ALIKE

ARE VERY UNHAPPY, THEY WILL NOT RISE UP AGAINST THE GOZ

UNLESS THEY ARE LED. MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI IS

TOO WEAK TO LEAD THEM, AS HE HIMSELF IS INTIMIDATED BY

THE GOZ, NCUBE OPINED. NCUBE WOULD BE EQUALLY OPPOSED

TO THE MDC IF IT PROVED TO BE JUST AS CORRUPT AS ZANU-

PF, HE ADDED. WHEN ASKED IF THERE IS A CHANCE FOR

MUGABE TO BACK OUT OF THE ELECTION, THE ARCHBISHOP SAID

“NO;” ONCE HIS PARTY WINS RE-ELECTION, HOWEVER, MUGABE

WILL HAND OVER POWER TO ANOTHER PARTY STALWART.

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PAGE 03       HARARE 03672 04 OF 05 111257Z

ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT

———————-

¶13. (C) MANY OF OUR INTERLOCUTORS EXPRESSED THANKS TO

A/S KANSTEINER AND THE USG FOR PASSING THE ZIMBABWE

DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA). IN AN OPEN

DISCUSSION WITH HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVIST JUDITH TODD AND

AIDS NATIONAL COUNCIL CHAIRMAN MIKE NDUBIWA (A LONG-TIME

ZANU-PF MEMBER WHO WAS AS ANTI-ZANU AS ANYONE WE MET),

KANSTEINER EXPLAINED THE PROVISIONS OF THE ZDERA AND

THAT IT IS UP TO THE ADMINISTRATION TO IMPLEMENT ANY

SANCTIONS. TODD ARGUED THAT IT WOULD BE IMPORTANT TO

THREATEN SANCTIONS JUST BEFORE THE ZANU-PF CONFERENCE

BEGINS DECEMBER 14 AND BEFORE THE AMENDMENTS TO THE

ELECTORAL ACT ARE PASSED IN PARLIAMENT (TODD REPORTED

THAT THE BILL IS DUE TO BE INTRODUCED DECEMBER 18).

AFTER THESE DATES, SHE SAID, IT WOULD BE TOO LATE TO

INFLUENCE ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE GOZ’S COURSE OF

ACTION. AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN POINTED OUT THAT THERE IS

AN ARGUMENT AGAINST USING THE SANCTIONS “STICK” NOW —

WE WON’T HAVE ANY OTHERS ONCE IT IS USED, AND IT COULD

FORCE MUGABE INTO A CORNER WITH NO ESCAPE ROUTES.

NDUBIWA MAINTAINED THAT “PULLING THE TRIGGER” OF

SANCTIONS SHOULD BE A PROCESS RATHER THAN AN EVENT.

CERTAINLY, THREATS OF USING SANCTIONS WOULD HAVE TO BE

MADE, BUT THEIR ULTIMATE USE SHOULD NOT BE LINKED TO ANY

ONE ACTION, SUCH AS PASSAGE OF THE ELECTORAL ACT

AMENDMENTS.

HOW CAN WE BEST HELP ZIMBABWE?

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PAGE 04       HARARE 03672 04 OF 05 111257Z

——————————

¶14. (C) WHEN ASKED HOW THE U.S. COULD HELP ZIMBABWE AT

THIS POINT, MDC VICE-PRESIDENT SIBANDA STATED THAT THE

MOST IMPORTANT THING WE COULD DO IS TELL PRESIDENT

MUGABE IN NO UNCERTAIN TERMS THAT WE WOULD NOT RECOGNIZE

THE ELECTION OUTCOME IF THE ELECTION WAS NOT FREE AND

FAIR. MUGABE WANTS THIS RECOGNITION MORE THAN ANYTHING,

SIBANDA SAID. USING OUR INFLUENCE WITH THE REGIONAL

STATES WOULD HELP, BUT AMONG THE SADC STATES, ONLY SOUTH

AFRICA CAN APPLY SUFFICIENT PRESSURE ON MUGABE TO CHANGE

HIS WAYS. SHARI EPPEL OF AMANI TRUST OPINED THAT

APPLYING PRESSURE TO THE SADC STATES TO TAKE A STAND

AGAINST MUGABE IS KEY TO CHANGING HIS BEHAVIOR. SIBANDA

APPEALED FOR HELP WITH MDC FINANCES, WHICH HE SAID WERE

BEING DRAINED BY GOZ ACTIONS, SUCH AS THE TORCHING OF

ITS BULAWAYO OFFICES AND LEGAL CASES. THE MDC IS

SPENDING BETWEEN ZIM$5 MILLION AND $7 MILLION (US$16,000

AND $23,000) ON LEGAL FEES; IT HAS SO FAR SPENT ZIM$1.3

MILLION (US$4,000) ON FLETCHER DULINI-NCUBE’S CASE

ALONE. THEY SAID IT WOULD HELP IF THE U.S. COULD ASSIST

IN FINDING NGOS THAT COULD PROVIDE LEGAL ASSISTANCE OR

FUNDS FOR LEGAL EXPENSES.

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3091

PAGE 01       HARARE 03672 05 OF 05 111247Z

ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00   AID-00   CIAE-00 CTME-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EB-00

EXIM-01 E-00     VC-00   FRB-00   H-01     TEDE-00 INR-00

ITC-01   L-00     AC-01   NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01   OPIC-01

PA-00   PM-00   PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00   SSO-00

SS-00   STR-00   TRSE-00 T-00     USIE-00 PMB-00   DRL-02

G-00     SAS-00     /008W

——————49CDC1 111247Z /48

O 110949Z DEC 01

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0499

INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 05 HARARE 003672

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY

NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/11

TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON PINS ZI

SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER MEETS WITH CROSS SECTION OF

BULAWAYO SOCIETY

¶15. (U) THE A/S KANSTEINER DELEGATION CLEARED THIS

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PAGE 02       HARARE 03672 05 OF 05 111247Z

CABLE.

SULLIVAN

CONFIDENTIAL

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