Only Queen of England can convince Mugabe to change his behaviour

The United States needed to send an eminent person like its former ambassador to the United Nations Andrew Young to encourage President Robert Mugabe to moderate his policies, former Movement for Democratic Change secretary-general Welshman Ncube told US acting principal deputy Assistant Secretary Mark Bellamy.

Ncube’s colleagues, however, said there was really no international figure other than the Queen of England -“and that was not going to happen”- who could influence Mugabe in any meaningful way.

The MDC leaders were responding to a question by Bellamy on what role the US could play “in these trying times”.

MDC Member of Parliament David Coltart said members of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front who were responsible for the violence in the country should be brought to book.

He said only 10 or 12 ZANU-PDF leaders, most notably Speaker of Parliament Emmerson Mnangagwa and Mines and Energy Minister Sydney Sekeramayi, were responsible.

Full cable:

Viewing cable 01HARARE969, MEETING WITH LEADERS OF THE MOVEMENT FOR

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091555Z Mar 01

CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ7097

PAGE 01       HARARE 00969 01 OF 02 091557Z

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DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00   EB-00   EUR-00   FAAE-00 FBIE-00

VC-00   H-01     TEDE-00 INR-00   IO-00   LAB-01   L-00

VCE-00   AC-01   NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01   OPIC-01 PA-00

PM-00   PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00   SSO-00   TRSE-00

USIE-00 R-00     PMB-00   DSCC-00 DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00

SAS-00   SWCI-00   /007W

——————CFC19B 091557Z /38

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8387

INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000969

SIPDIS

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

NAIROBI FOR TPFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/11

TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI SA MDC

SUBJECT: MEETING WITH LEADERS OF THE MOVEMENT FOR

DEMOCRATIC CHANGE

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02       HARARE 00969 01 OF 02 091557Z

REFTEL: HARARE 919

CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D’AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR

REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).

¶1. (C) SUMMARY: ON MARCH 9, ACTING PRINCIPAL DEPUTY

ASSISTANT SECRETARY MARK BELLAMY HELD DISCUSSIONS WITH

MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) PRESIDENT MORGAN

TSVANGIRAI ON THE STATE OF ZIMBABWE’S POLITICAL CRISIS

SIPDIS

AND WHAT CONSTRUCTIVE ROLE THE U.S. COULD PLAY, IF ANY,

TO HELP RESOLVE THE SITUATION. THE MDC LEADERSHIP

CALLED FOR AN EMINENT PERSON TO CONVINCE MUGABE TO ALTER

HIS BEHAVIOR AND STRESSED THE IMPORTANCE OF HAVING

FOREIGN ELECTION MONITORS IN ADVANCE OF THE EARLY 2002

PRESIDENTIAL POLL. THE MDC’S MEETING WITH THE RULING

ANC OF SOUTH AFRICA, ZANU-PF’S INTIMIDATION CAMPAIGN,

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DYNAMICS WERE ALSO DISCUSSED. ON

MARCH 8, BELLAMY MET WITH MDC MP DAVID COLTART, WHO

ARGUED THAT MOST OF THE POLITICAL KILLINGS AND

INTIMIDATION CAN BE TIED DIRECTLY TO 10 OR 12 ZANU-PF

LEADERS. THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SHOULD CONDEMN THE

CULTURE OF IMPUNITY THAT PERMEATES THE COUNTRY AND HOLD

ACCOUNTABLE THOSE LEADERS WHO BENEFIT FROM IT. END

SUMMARY.

¶2. (C) ON MARCH 9, ACTING PRINCIPAL DEPUTY ASSISTANT

SECRETARY MARK BELLAMY, ACCOMPANIED BY CHARGE AND POLOFF

SIPDIS

(NOTETAKER) MET MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC)

PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI FOR AN HOUR-LONG BREAKFAST

MEETING AT THE CHARGE’S RESIDENCE. TSVANGIRAI WAS

ACCOMPANIED BY MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE AND

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PAGE 03       HARARE 00969 01 OF 02 091557Z

MDC DIRECTOR OF ELECTIONS AND GWANDA NORTH MP PAUL

NYATHI. THE DISCUSSION WAS VERY OPEN AND CORDIAL.

ANC NOT ENCOURAGING

——————-

¶3. (C) NCUBE ELUCIDATED ON THE MDC’S RECENT TALKS WITH

THE AFRICAN NATIONAL CONGRESS (ANC) IN SOUTH AFRICA.

ALL THE MDC LEADERS PRESENT SEEMED DISMAYED WITH THE

ANC’S POSITION AT THESE MEETINGS. NCUBE REPORTED THAT

THE ANC’S MAIN MESSAGE TO THE MDC WAS THAT IT SHOULD

ENGAGE IN DIALOGUE WITH THE RULING ZIMBABWE AFRICAN

NATIONAL UNION-PATRIOTIC FRONT (ZANU-PF), AND THAT IT

COULD NEGOTIATE A RETURN TO THE RULE OF LAW WITH THE

GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE. TSVANGIRAI REMARKED

RHETORICALLY “WHY SHOULD WE NEGOTIATE SOMETHING THAT THE

GOZ SHOULD BE DOING ALREADY?” HE ADDED THAT THE ANC

SUGGESTED THAT, IF THE MDC AND GOZ WERE SEEN NEGOTIATING

A RETURN TO NORMALCY, SOUTH AFRICA COULD THEN PUSH THE

IFIS AND INTERNATIONAL DONORS TO RESUME LENDING AND AID

PROGRAMS. BELLAMY SAID THE ANC POSITION WAS

INCOMPREHENSIBLE AND UNHELPFUL. NCUBE BELIEVED THE ANC

TOOK THIS POSITION BECAUSE IT WANTS TO GET OFF THE HOT

SEAT SO IT CAN TELL THE WORLD THAT ZIMBABWEANS ARE

WORKING OUT THEIR OWN PROBLEMS.

ZANU-PF VIOLENCE CONTINUES

————————–

¶4. (C) THE MDC LEADERS WENT ON TO DESCRIBE ZANU-PF’S

LATEST INTIMIDATION TACTICS. NCUBE REPORTED THAT THE

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04       HARARE 00969 01 OF 02 091557Z

PARTY HAS SET UP WAR VETERAN CAMPS THROUGHOUT

MASHONALAND CENTRAL AND EAST PROVINCES, AND THAT THESE

WAR VETERANS AND YOUTHS IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS HAVE

EMBARKED ON A CAMPAIGN OF VIOLENCE AND TERROR. LOCAL

MDC LEADERS AND YOUTH ARE BEING SINGLED OUT FOR SEVERE

BEATINGS, NCUBE CLAIMED. GURUVE AND SHAMVA DISTRICTS

HAVE BECOME “NO-GO” AREAS FOR THE MDC. MANY LOCAL MDC

SUPPORTERS, NOT JUST IN MASHONALAND, ARE NOT ORGANIZING

FOR THE PARTY OUT OF FEAR FOR THEIR SAFETY. MANY WILL

NOT EVEN SHOW UP A RALLIES WHERE MDC LEADERS SPEAK. IN

RELATION TO THE RECENT DEATH OF WHITE FARMER GLORIA OLDS

(REFTEL), NYATHI STATED THAT IN BULAWAYO HE OVERHEARD

VICE-PRESIDENT MSIKA TALKING ABOUT OLDS’ DEATH TO A

COLLEAGUE IN NDEBELE. MSIKA REPORTEDLY SAID “WE FIXED

HER” AND “THEY THOUGHT WE WERE JOKING.”

ELECTION DYNAMICS

—————–

¶5. (C) IN REGARD TO THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION,

TSVANGIRAI STATED THAT HE NO LONGER BELIEVES MUGABE WILL

SIPDIS

HOLD AN EARLY ELECTION. A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION IS NOT

POSSIBLE IN THE MASHONALAND PROVINCES BECAUSE OF THE

HIGH LEVEL OF INTIMIDATION THEY HAVE SUFFERED SINCE

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ7098

PAGE 01       HARARE 00969 02 OF 02 091557Z

ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00   NP-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00 USNW-00 DINT-00 DODE-00

DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00   EB-00   EUR-00   FAAE-00 FBIE-00

VC-00   H-01     TEDE-00 INR-00   IO-00   LAB-01   L-00

VCE-00   AC-01   NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01   OPIC-01 PA-00

PM-00   PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00   SSO-00   TRSE-00

USIE-00 R-00     PMB-00   DSCC-00 DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00

SAS-00   SWCI-00   /007W

——————CFC1A8 091557Z /38

O 091555Z MAR 01

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8388

INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000969

SIPDIS

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

NAIROBI FOR TPFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/11

TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI SA MDC

SUBJECT: MEETING WITH LEADERS OF THE MOVEMENT FOR

DEMOCRATIC CHANGE

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02       HARARE 00969 02 OF 02 091557Z

EARLY LAST YEAR. NONETHELESS, THE MDC COULD STILL

GARNER 40 PERCENT OF THE VOTES THERE, TSVANGIRAI

BELIEVES. THE KEY BATTLEGROUND WILL BE ZIMBABWE’S MOST

POPULOUS PROVINCES, MIDLANDS AND MASVINGO, WHERE A

CANDIDATE NEEDS TO WIN ONLY 60 PERCENT OF THE VOTE TO

WIN THE ENTIRE ELECTION, NCUBE OFFERED. ZANU-PF HAS

ANTAGONIZED THESE PROVINCES AND OTHERS TO SUCH AN

EXTENT, THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE THEIR CANDIDATE

WINNING A MAJORITY OF VOTES THERE.

WHAT CAN THE U.S. DO?

———————

¶6. (C) BELLAMY ASKED THE MDC LEADERS WHAT ROLE THE U.S.

COULD PLAY IN THESE TRYING TIMES. NCUBE SUGGESTED A

VISIT BY ANDREW YOUNG WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE MIGHT

ENCOURAGE THE PRESIDENT TO MODERATE HIS POLICIES. THE

OTHER LEADERS SAID THERE IS REALLY NO INTERNATIONAL

FIGURE (OTHER THAN THE QUEEN OF ENGLAND, THEY QUIPPED,

AND THAT WAS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN) WHO COULD INFLUENCE

MUGABE IN ANY MEANINGFUL WAY. ALL THREE EMPHASIZED THAT

THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY MUST “HAMMER HOME” THE

MESSAGE THAT VIOLENCE IS NOT A LEGITIMATE CAMPAIGN TOOL,

AND IT MUST REPEAT IT OVER AND OVER AGAIN IF IT IS TO

HAVE ANY IMPACT. NCUBE STRESSED THE IMPORTANCE OF

HAVING FOREIGN ELECTION MONITORS, AND SUPPORTING AND

TRAINING A LARGE POOL OF DOMESTIC MONITORS DURING, AND

WELL BEFORE, THE ELECTION.

ZANU-PF LEADERS MUST BE BROUGHT TO BOOK

—————————————

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03       HARARE 00969 02 OF 02 091557Z

¶7. (C) IN A MARCH 8 MEETING WITH BELLAMY, MDC MP DAVID

COLTART ARGUED THAT MOST OF THE KILLINGS OF WHITE

FARMERS, MDC SUPPORTERS, AND GOVERNMENT OPPONENTS CAN BE

TRACED DIRECTLY TO CONSTITUENCIES AND LOCAL

ORGANIZATIONS CONTROLLED BY 10 OR 12 ZANU-PF LEADERS,

MOST NOTABLY SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA

AND MINES AND ENERGY MINISTER SYDNEY SEKERAMAYI. THE

INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY MUST CONDEMN THE CULTURE OF

IMPUNITY THAT PREVAILS IN THE COUNTRY, AND PUT

POLITICIANS WHO USE VIOLENCE ON NOTICE AND HOLD THEM

ACCOUNTABLE, HE SAID. UNLESS THIS MESSAGE IS FORCEFULLY

CONVEYED TO THE GOZ, THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE THAT THE

UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL BE EVEN REMOTELY

FREE AND FAIR, COLTART INSISTED. AN ALL-OUT EFFORT MUST

BE MADE STARTING NOW TO ENSURE A LEVEL PLAYING FIELD

WITH TRANSPARENT PROCESSES AND CAREFUL MONITORING.

IRVING

CONFIDENTIAL

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