Former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo promised Movement for Democratic Change leader Morgan Tsvangirai that he would urge President Robert Mugabe to step down but nothing of the sort happened when the two leaders met a week later.
Obasanjo paid a whirlwind visit to Zimbabwe on January 20 arriving at 8 pm and leaving at 3am on January 21. He met Mugabe before meeting Tsvangirai and Tendai Biti at 1:10am.
Biti said Obasanjo told them that Mugabe had assured him that violence would be stopped and international observers would be allowed for the presidential elections that were due shortly.
Biti said although the Nigerian President was genuinely trying to help, he appeared to be underestimating what Mugabe was capable of.
Biti confirmed that Obasanjo had, in a 14 January meeting with Tsvangirai in Abuja, said he would urge Mugabe to step down during his Harare visit but he did not raise this issue at their meeting on 21 January.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 02HARARE200, OBASANJO SHUTTLES TO ZIMBABWE, MEETS BOTH
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
221327Z Jan 02
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ9150
PAGE 01 HARARE 00200 01 OF 02 221336Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 WHA-00 DS-00
EAP-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 M-00 NSAE-00
SSO-00 SS-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /002W
——————5B2C7D 221336Z /38
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0753
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000200
SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF A/S KANSTEINER AND DAS BELLAMY
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER
PARIS FOR NEARY
LONDON FOR GURNEY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/12
SUBJECT: OBASANJO SHUTTLES TO ZIMBABWE, MEETS BOTH
MUGABE AND TSVANGIRAI
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON.
REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D).
SUMMARY
——-
¶1. (C) NIGERIAN PRESIDENT OLUSEGUN OBASANJO MADE A
WHIRLWIND VISIT TO ZIMBABWE, ARRIVING JANUARY 20 AT
8:00 P.M. AND DEPARTING AT 3:00 A.M. THE NEXT DAY. HE
MET WITH BOTH PRESIDENT ROBERT MUGABE AND THE MDC’S
MORGAN TSVANGIRAI. ACCORDING TO THE NIGERIAN EMBASSY,
OBASANJO MET ALONE WITH MUGABE. ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC
DETAILS OF THEIR CONVERSATION ARE NOT AVAILABLE, THE
NIGERIANS SAID HE RAISED THE ABUJA AGREEMENT, THE NEED
TO ENSURE A LEVEL AND NON-VIOLENT ELECTORAL PLAYING
FIELD, AND THE PRESENCE OF INTERNATIONAL ELECTION
OBSERVERS FROM THE EU, COMMONWEALTH AND OTHER ENTITIES.
OBASANJO LATER TOLD TSVANGIRAI HE WAS MORE OPTIMISTIC
AFTER TALKING WITH MUGABE, WHO HAD “PROVIDED
ASSURANCES” ON KEY ISSUES OF CONCERN. THE MDC
APPRECIATES OBASANJO’S INVOLVEMENT BUT EXPRESSED
DISAPPOINTMENT THAT HE APPEARS TO HAVE ACCEPTED
MUGABE’S PROMISES AT FACE VALUE. END SUMMARY.
ARRIVAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 00200 01 OF 02 221336Z
——-
¶2. (U) PRESIDENT OBASANJO AND HIS LARGE DELEGATION
(WHICH INCLUDED FOREIGN MINISTCR LAMIDO AND SPECIAL
ENVOY ON ZIMBABWE CHIEF SHONEKAN) WAS MET AT HARARE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT BY PRESIDENT MUGABE, INFORMATION
MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO, AND A NUMBER OF OTHER RULING
PARTY HEAVYWEIGHTS AT 8:00 P.M. ON JANUARY 20. ALSO IN
ATTENDANCE WERE SOME 2,000 ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS, MANY
WEARING T-SHIRTS WITH OBASANJO’S PICTURE ON THE FRONT,
CHANTING PRO ZANU-PP SLOGANS AND CARRYING PLACARDS
DENOUNCING THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS,
AMONG OTHERS.
MUGABE CONVERSATION
——————-
¶3. (C) ACCORDING TO MARTINS COBHAM, SENIOR COUNSELOR
AT THE NIGERIAN HIGH COMMISSION, PRESIDENTS MUGABE AND
OBASANJO HAD A TETE-A-TETE AFTER A STATE BANQUET IN THE
VISITING PRESIDENT’S HONOR. LAMIDO AND SHONEKAN
REPORTEDLY COOLED THEIR HEELS DURING THE PRESIDENTIAL
DISCUSSION. COBHAM TOLD US HE UNDERSTOOD SECOND-HAND
THAT OBASANJO HAD STRESSED TO MUGABE THE IMPORTANCE OF
KEEPING THE ABUJA AGREEMENT ON TRACK, ENSURING A LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD FOR THE ELECTIONS, AND INVITING
INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVERS. (COMMENT: SINCE
COBHAM WAS NOT PRESENT IN THE ONE-ON-ONE MEETING, WE
SUSPECT HE WAS BASING HIS READOUT TO US ON THE REMARKS
MADE BY THE TWO LEADERS TO JOURNALISTS AFTER THEIR
CONVERSATION. END COMMENT.)
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 HARARE 00200 01 OF 02 221336Z
TSVANGIRAI
SIPDIS
———-
¶4. (C) OBASANJO SUBSEQUENTLY MET WITH TSVANGIRAI AND
MDC SHADOW FOREIGN MINISTER TENDAI BITI FROM 1:10 A.M.
TO 2:25 A.M. ON JANUARY 21. BITI TOLD POLITICAL
SECTION CHIEF THAT OBASANJO REPORTED THAT HE WAS MORE
OPTIMISTIC AFTER HIS DISCUSSION WITH MUGABE. THE
ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT, ACCORDING TO OBASANJO, HAD
PROVIDED ASSURANCES THAT VIOLENCE WOULD BE STOPPED AND
THAT INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVERS WOULD BE ALLOWED
IN- BITI SAID HE AND TSVANGIRAI HAD DESCRIBED NUMEROUS
PAST INSTANCES IN WHICH MUGABE HAS FAILED TO HONOR
SIMILAR COMMITMENTS, AND THAT THEY STRONGLY ENCOURAGED
OBASANJO TO JUDGE MUGABE ONLY BY HIS ACTIONS. OBASANJO
SAID MUGABE HAD REJECTED OBASANJO’S SUGGESTION THAT HE
MEET WITH TSVANGIRAI. OBASANJO ASKED TSVANGIRAI FOR
ASSURANCES THAT THERE WOULD BE NO “VINDICTIVENESS”
AGAINST MUGABE IF THE MDC WINS THE MARCH CLECTION.
BITI SAID TSVANGIRAI HAD REPLIED THAT THE LAW WOULD BE
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ9152
PAGE 01 HARARE 00200 02 OF 02 221336Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 WHA-00 DS-00
EAP-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 M-00 NSAE-00
SSO-00 SS-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /002W
——————5B2C94 221336Z /38
O 221327Z JAN 02
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0754
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000200
SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF A/S KANSTEINER AND DAS BELLAMY
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER
PARIS FOR NEARY
LONDON FOR GURNEY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 00200 02 OF 02 221336Z
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/12
SUBJECT: OBASANJO SHUTTLES TO ZIMBABWE, MEETS BOTH
MUGABE AND TSVANGIRAI
ALLOWED
TO TAKE ITS COURSE, AND STRESSED THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN VINDICTIVENESS AND THE RULE OF LAW. OVERALL,
BITI EXPRESSED HIS “GRCAT DISAPPOINTMENT” WITH THE
OBASANJO VISIT. ALTHOUGH THE NIGERIAN PRESIDENT IS
GENUINELY TRYING TO HELP, ACCORDING TO BITI, HE APPEARS
TO BE UNDERESTIMATING WHAT MUGABE IS CAPABLE OF.
¶5. (C) BITI CONFIRMED THAT OBASANJO HAD, IN A JANUARY
14 MEETING WITH TSVANGIRAI IN ABUJA, SAID HE WOULD URGE
MUGABE TO STEP DOWN DURING THE HARARE VISIT. (NOTE:
ACCORDING TO TSVANGIRAI’S SPECIAL ASSISTANT, GANDI
MUDZINGWA, WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING IN ABUJA, OBASANJO
HAD ASKED WHETHER THE MDC WOULD SUPPORT A
CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT SUPPORTING AN EXTENSION OF THE
PRESIDENT’S MANDATE LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW ARRANGEMENT OF
MUGABE’S DEPARTURE.) BITI SAID OBASANJO DID NOT RAISE
THIS ISSUE IN HIS JANUARY 21 MEETING WITH HIM AND
TSVANGIRAI.
SIPDIS
COMMENT
——-
¶6. (C) CLEARLY, OBASANJO BROKERED NO BREAKTHROUGHS
DURING HIS BRIEF VISIT. WE CONTINUE TO BELIEVE,
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 00200 02 OF 02 221336Z
HOWEVER, THAT HIS PERSONAL INVOLVEMENT ON ZIMBABWE IS
POSITIVE, IF ONLY BECAUSE OBASANJO IS ONE OF THE FEW
PEOPLE WITH INFLUENCE OVCR MUGABE. IF, AS REPORTED,
THE NIGERIAN PRESIDENT FOCUSED HIS DISCUSSION WITH
MUGABE ON VIOLENCE, ELECTORAL RULES AND OBSERVERS —
INSTEAD OF ON LAND, AS THE GOZ WOULD HAVE PREFERRED —
THE VISIT YIELDED SOME INCREMENTAL PROGRESS. HOWEVER,
IF THERE IS ANY HOPE OF MITIGATING FURTHER POLITICAL
AND ECONOMIC DAMAGE IN ZIMBABWE, OBASANJO WILL NEED TO
RATCHET UP THE PRESSURE, BY MAKING IT CLEAR TO MUGABE
THAT HE WILL BE JUDGED ON HIS ACTIONS, NOT HIS
PROMISES. WE FOUND INTERESTING OBASANJO’S STATEMENT TO
TSVANGIRAI IN ABUJA THAT HE PLANNED TO URGE MUGABE TO
SIPDIS
STEP DOWN, AN ISSUE HE EITHER DID NOT RAISE WITH HIS
ZIMBABWEAN COUNTERPART OR DID NOT CHOOSE TO SHARE WITH
TSVANGIRAI.
SIPDIS
SULLIVAN
CONFIDENTIAL
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