No one gave the MDC a chance in 2008

No one believed that the Movement for Democratic Change would defeat President Robert Mugabe in the 2008 elections so everyone was frantically trying to set up coalitions to beat Mugabe and the Zimbabwe African National Union- Patriotic Front.

According to one of the cables released by Wikileaks, there was a lot of speculation that disgruntled members of ZANU-PF, especially from the Solomon Mujuru faction, would team up with the MDC but the question of who was going to lead the coalition always lingered.

The diplomatic community was therefore sent off the rails when Simba Makoni who had been touted as one of the potential challengers, and was allegedly being sponsored by Mujuru, allegedly said he was not going to leave ZANU-PF after a purported meeting with Mugabe on 22 January 2008.

Dabengwa was pushed in as the challenger but some members of the MDC said he was a non-starter because he had lost previous elections in Bulawayo.

Idasa analyst Sydney Masamvu poured water over Makoni’s endorsement by Mujuru saying he had met Mujuru in South Africa and he had been cool to Makoni because he had no base and was not a strong leader.

Masamvu, however, said Mujuru was supportive of Dabengwa and said he had been discussing with him the possibility of an electoral challenge.

Full cable:

Viewing cable 08HARARE71, ZIMBABWE ELECTION UPDATE: MAKONI A NON-STARTER

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STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2018

TAGS: PGOV ASEC ZI

SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE ELECTION UPDATE: MAKONI A NON-STARTER

REF: A. HARARE 45

¶B. HARARE 16

¶C. PRETORIA 139

Classified By: Amb. James D. McGee for reasons 1.4 (d)

¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Simba Makoni took himself out of the

electoral mix on January 22 by pledging loyalty to President

Mugabe. Focus has now shifted to Dumiso Dabengwa, a ZANU-PF

Politburo member who has for some time opposed Mugabe within

the party. Interest in Makoni and now Dabengwa results from

a widespread belief that the MDC cannot defeat Mugabe on its

own. END SUMMARY.

¶2. (C) According to several Embassy sources, Simba Makoni on

January 22 met with President Mugabe and assured him he would

not be part of a ZANU-PF splinter group opposing Mugabe or

part of a coalition with the MDC. With almost all analysts

agreeing the MDC has little chance in an election against

ZANU-PF and Mugabe, Makoni had been seen as a moderate

ZANU-PF voice who, with the backing of Solomon Mujuru and an

alliance with the MDC, could have posed an electoral threat

to Mugabe. Makoni had long been seen as lacking political

courage, however, and his decision to remain in ZANU-PF with

Mugabe appears to confirm that perception.

¶3. (C) The fevered speculation about Makoni in the last

several weeks was the result both of a lack of confidence in

the MDC and the hope that there was a leader who, perhaps in

alliance with the MDC, could challenge Mugabe. The focus has

now shifted to Dumiso Dabengwa (Ref A). Dabengwa is an ally

of Solomon Mujuru. According to our sources, Mujuru and

Dabengwa plotted a challenge to Mugabe at the ZANU-PF

Congress in December. They had lined up support from six of

the ten provinces and were planning to have Dabengwa’s name

placed in nomination. Mugabe learned of the plan and,

through Emmerson Mnangagwa who was in charge of the Congress,

manipulated the rules to establish a pre-set agenda with no

nominations. The challenge, therefore, never took place.

¶4. (C) Sidney Masamvu of IDASA spoke with Mujuru last week

in South Africa. He told us Mujuru was cool to a Makoni

candidacy–Makoni had no base and he did not think he was a

strong leader–but said he would be supportive of Dabengwa

and had been discussing with Dabengwa a possible electoral

challenge.

¶5. (C) Several MDC Tsvangirai faction members have told us

they are skeptical Dabengwa would bring much to the

opposition. They point to the fact that he lost his bid for

a parliamentary seat in Matabeleland in 2005. Others,

however, including MDC members of the Mutambara faction (Ref

A) believe Dabengwa could be a potent force in conjunction

with the MDC and Mujuru, helping to solidify Matabeleland and

to gain votes in Mashonaland. They also note that he brings

liberation credentials to the table and could partially

liberate the MDC from charges that it is a tool of the West.

Jonathan Moyo averred to us that Dabengwa is one of four

people, along with Mnangagwa, Mujuru, and Joseph Msika whose

defection would exert a shock on ZANU-PF.

¶6. (C) COMMENT: A Dabengwa-Mujuru-MDC coalition would

present issues of who would lead–Dabengwa or Tsvangirai–and

would Mujuru-Dabengwa followers support a largely MDC

coalition (and vice versa). In the end, this may just be the

flavor of the month, as with the Makoni infatuation, driven

by a general feeling that the MDC cannot defeat Mugabe on its

own. But for now, Dabengwa is generating considerable

conversation. END COMMENT.

MCGEE

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