Mugabe wins, Tsvangirai mourns

President Robert Mugabe won the 2002 presidential elections with a 427 000 majority but his main rival Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change rejected the results as “the biggest fraud he has ever witnessed”.

Tsvangirai said the results did not reflect the will of the people and were illegitimate.

Though he did not say what the MDC was going to do about the results, one of his lieutenants Tendai Biti said the MDC was going to challenge the results in court.

He said the presidential election was just “Round 1” and the MDC would be there for “Round 6”.

Biti, however, said he had no expectation of success with any MDC legal action, but that it should be carried out in any case.

Full cable:

Viewing cable 02HARARE661, MUGABE DECLARED WINNER OF ZIMBABWE PRESIDENTIAL

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131251Z Mar 02

CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ9499

PAGE 01       HARARE 00661 01 OF 02 131301Z

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——————73D0DF 131301Z /38

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1186

INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE

OAU COLLECTIVE

ALL EUROPEAN UNION POST COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000661

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY

NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/12

TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI

SUBJECT: MUGABE DECLARED WINNER OF ZIMBABWE PRESIDENTIAL

ELECTION; MDC LEAVES ITS OPTIONS OPEN

REF: HARARE 644

CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS:

1.5 (B) AND (D).

¶1. (C) SUMMARY: REGISTRAR-GENERAL TOBAIWA MUDEDE HAS

DECLARED PRESIDENT ROBERT MUGABE THE WINNER OF

ZIMBABWE’S MARCH 9-11 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. HE BEAT

HIS STRONGEST CHALLENGER IN 22 YEARS BY 427,000 VOTES,

OR 56 PERCENT TO 42 PERCENT. THE NATURE OF SOME OF THE

RESULTS, ESPECIALLY EXTRAORDINARILY HIGH FIGURES FOR

MUGABE IN MASHONALAND DISTRICTS, RAISE CONCERNS OF VOTE-

RIGGING AND FRAUD. INSUFFICIENT VOTER TURNOUT FOR AREAS

OF MDC STRENGTH WAS A KEY FACTOR. MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN

TSVANGIRAI REJECTED THE RESULTS AND CALLED THE ELECTION

SIPDIS

“ILLEGITIMATE.” HARARE AND OTHER MAJOR URBAN AREAS

REMAIN CALM, BUT THE ARMY AND POLICE PRESENCE HAS

INCREASED. END SUMMARY.

——————

THE RESULTS ARE IN

——————

¶2. (U) SHORTLY AFTER NOON LOCAL TIME ON MARCH 13,

REGISTRAR-GENERAL TOBAIWA MUDEDE DECLARED ON STATE

TELEVISION AND RADIO THAT PRESIDENT ROBERT MUGABE HAD

BEEN DULY ELECTED TO ANOTHER SIX-YEAR TERM. THE

DECLARATION FOLLOWED THE CONSTITUENCY-BY-CONSTITUENCY

ANNOUNCEMENT OF RESULTS THAT BEGAN IN THE EVENING OF

MARCH 12 AND CONTINUED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MORNING OF

MARCH 13. THE NATIONWIDE FINAL RESULTS ARE BELOW

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03       HARARE 00661 01 OF 02 131301Z

(PERCENTAGE FIGURES BASED ON TOTAL VOTES LESS SPOILED

BALLOTS):

ROBERT MUGABE (ZANU-PF) 1,685,212 (56.20%)

MORGAN TSVANGIRAI (MDC) 1,258,401 (41.95%)

WILSON KUMBULA (ZANU)       31,358 ( 1.05%)

SHAKESPEARE MAYA (NAGG)     11,906 ( 0.40%)

PAUL SIWELA (INDEPENDENT)   11,871 ( 0.40%)

¶3. (C) MUGABE’S EASY SURPASSING OF THE 50 PERCENT MARK

MEANS THERE WILL BE NO RUNOFF ELECTION. THE MARGIN OF

VICTORY OF NEARLY 427,000 VOTES WAS WIDER THAN EXPECTED.

THE THREE OTHER CANDIDATES WERE EVEN LESS OF A FACTOR

THAN ANTICIPATED, GARNERING LESS THAN 2 PERCENT OF THE

VOTE BETWEEN THEM. THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SPOILED BALLOTS,

132,000, OR 4.2 PERCENT OF TOTAL VOTES CAST WAS SOMEWHAT

HIGHER THAN IN THE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION. THE

REGISTRAR-GENERAL DID NOT ANNOUNCE THE RESULTS OF THE

HARARE AND CHITUNGWIZA MAYORAL AND COUNCIL ELECTIONS,

NOR DID HE SAY WHEN HE WOULD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT

NO INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION OF THE RESULTS IS YET

AVAILABLE. RINDAI CHIPFUNDE OF THE ZIMBABWE ELECTION

SUPPORT NETWORK (ZESN), AN UMBRELLA ORGANIZATION

COMPRISING LOCAL NGOS, TOLD US THAT ZESN WAS STILL

COMPILING REPORTS FROM ITS OBSERVERS AT COUNTING

CENTERS. DAVID COLTART, AN MDC MP AND THE PARTY’S

ELECTION AGENT FOR BULAWAYO SOUTH, HOWEVER, DID CONFIRM

THAT THE NUMBERS ANNOUNCED FOR THAT CONSTITUENCY ARE

CORRECT.

—————–

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04       HARARE 00661 01 OF 02 131301Z

CONCERNS OF FRAUD

—————–

¶4. (C) A SCAN OF THE RESULTS BY CONSTITUENCY AND A

VARIETY OF REPORTS RAISE SERIOUS CONCERNS ABOUT THE

CONDUCT OF THE POLL AND THE LEVEL OF INTIMIDATION IN THE

PRE-ELECTION PERIOD. NEARLY ALL CONSTITUENCIES SHOW

INCREASES IN THE NUMBER OF VOTES FOR MUGABE OVER THE

2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION FIGURES, EVEN IN URBAN

AREAS. IN ZANU-PF’S MASHONALAND STRONGHOLD, THE NUMBER

OF VOTES FOR MUGABE INCREASED 20 TO 30 PERCENT OVER

2000, WHILE VOTES FOR TSVANGIRAI CHANGED ONLY

MARGINALLY. PART OF THE INCREASE FOR MUGABE CAN BE

ATTRIBUTED TO HIS NATIONWIDE NAME RECOGNITION VERSUS THE

LACK OF NAME RECOGNITION FOR SOME OF ZANU-PF’S

PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES IN 2000. HOWEVER, THE HUGE

INCREASE IN MASHONALAND NUMBERS (THE MARGIN WAS 15 TO 1

IN SOME DISTRICTS) GIVE RISE TO SUSPICIONS OF VOTE

TAMPERING AND BALLOT BOX STUFFING IN THAT PROVINCE:

— IN A PRESS BRIEFING MARCH 12, THE MDC STATED THAT AT

34 POLLING STATIONS IN MASHONALAND, ITS POLLING AGENTS

WERE CHASED AWAY, ABDUCTED OR ARRESTED, SEALS ON BALLOT

BOXES WERE BROKEN, OR THE MDC WAS NOT ALLOWED TO AFFIX

ITS SEALS TO THE BALLOT BOXES. FOUR OF ITS POLLING

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00   NP-00   AID-00   AMAD-00 CIAE-00 INL-00   DODE-00

SRPP-00 DS-00   EB-00   EUR-00   VC-00   H-01     TEDE-00

INR-00   IO-00   LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01   NSAE-00

OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01 PA-00   PC-01   PM-00   PRS-00

ACE-00   P-00     SP-00   SSO-00   STR-00   TRSE-00 USIE-00

ECA-00   PMB-00   DSCC-00 PRM-00   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00

SAS-00   SWCI-00   /010W

——————73D0F3 131301Z /38

O 131251Z MAR 02

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1187

INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE

OAU COLLECTIVE

ALL EUROPEAN UNION POST COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000661

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY

NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/12

TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI

SUBJECT: MUGABE DECLARED WINNER OF ZIMBABWE PRESIDENTIAL

ELECTION; MDC LEAVES ITS OPTIONS OPEN

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02       HARARE 00661 02 OF 02 131301Z

AGENTS WERE ARRESTED BEFORE THE COUNTING PROCESS BEGAN.

MOST OF THE INCIDENTS OCCURRED IN MASHONALAND CENTRAL.

AT ITS PRESS CONFERENCE MARCH 13, THE MDC ASSERTED THAT

ZANU-PF MILITIA PREVENTED ITS POLLING AGENTS FROM

DEPLOYING TO 52 PERCENT OF RURAL POLLING STATIONS.

–RESULTS FROM 6 OF THE 10 MASHONALAND CENTRAL

CONSTITUENCIES WERE NOT ANNOUNCED UNTIL AFTER 107 OTHER

CONSTITUENCIES, INCLUDING MANY FROM HARARE. TRANSPORT

DIFFICULTIES CANNOT ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MASHONALAND

CENTRAL WOULD HAVE HAD MORE TIME THAN ANY OTHER

PROVINCE, OTHER THAN HARARE, TO CARRY OUT FRAUD.

¶5. (C) FOR TSVANGIRAI, THE NUMBER OF VOTES INCREASED

ONLY MARGINALLY, EVEN IN THE MDC’S URBAN STRONGHOLDS.

IN BULAWAYO AND SOME AREAS OF MATABELELAND, THE NUMBER

OF VOTES ACTUALLY DECREASED. VOTER TURNOUTS OF LESS

THAN 50 PERCENT IN BULAWAYO AND MATABELELAND SOUTH COULD

BE AN INDICATION OF VOTER APATHY, BUT THE WIDESCALE

INTIMIDATION OF VOTERS IN THOSE TWO AREAS JUST WEEKS

BEFORE THE ELECTION IS ALSO A LIKELY FACTOR. ZANU-PF

MILITIA AND WAR VETERANS HAVE TARGETED MANY OTHER AREAS

OF THE COUNTRY FOR INTIMIDATION AND VIOLENT ATTACKS IN

THE LAST YEAR. THE AMANI TRUST, A WIDELY RESPECTED

HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATION, IS COMPILING AN ANALYSIS OF

THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS WITH REPORTED

INCIDENTS OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE. OTHER FACTORS

CONTRIBUTING TO TSVANGIRAI’S DEFEAT:

— A LOW NATIONAL TURNOUT RATE OF 55.8 PERCENT DOOMED

TSVANGIRAI’S CHANCES OF OVERCOMING MUGABE’S CONSIDERABLE

SIPDIS

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PAGE 03       HARARE 00661 02 OF 02 131301Z

ARRAY OF ELECTORAL MANIPULATION TOOLS AND STATE

RESOURCES. MUGABE’S COUP DE GRACE WAS CUTTING THE

NUMBER OF URBAN POLLING STATIONS IN HALF, WHICH LED TO

MASSIVE VOTER QUEUES AND ONLY A 50 PERCENT VOTER TURNOUT

IN HARARE, TSVANGIRAI’S STRONGEST BASE OF SUPPORT

(REFTEL). ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NO MORE THAN TEN THOUSAND

OR SO WISHING TO VOTE WERE UNABLE TO DO SO AT THE END OF

THE THIRD DAY OF POLLING, MANY TENS OF THOUSANDS WERE

LIKELY TOO DISCOURAGED BY THE KILOMETER-LONG LINES AND

WAITS OF UP TO 30 HOURS IN DAYS ONE AND TWO.

——————

THE MDC’S REACTION

——————

¶6. (C) AT A PACKED NOON PRESS CONFERENCE IN HARARE ON

MARCH 13, MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI REJECTED THE

ELECTION RESULTS AND DESCRIBED THE POLLING AS “THE

BIGGEST FRAUD HE HAS EVER WITNESSED.” HE STATED THAT

“THE RESULTS DO NOT REFLECT THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE AND

ARE ILLEGITIMATE.” HE CONCLUDED BY SAYING THE MDC

REMAINS COMMITTED TO PEACEFUL CHANGE. IN RESPONSE TO

REPORTERS’ QUESTIONS, TSVANGIRAI SAID HE HAS NO

INTENTION OF LEAVING THE COUNTRY OR ABANDONING HIS

PEOPLE. HE DEMURRED ON WHAT THE MDC WOULD DO NO NEXT,

BUT INDICATED THAT COURT ACTION WAS ONE OF ITS OPTIONS.

HE REITERATED THAT HE BELIEVED THE ELECTION HAD BEEN

“MASSIVELY RIGGED.” IN AN ASIDE WITH POLOFF, MDC MP

TENDAI BITI SAID THAT THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WAS JUST

“ROUND 1” AND THE MDC WOULD BE THERE FOR “ROUND 6.” HE

CONTINUED THAT HE HAD NO EXPECTATION OF SUCCESS WITH ANY

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04      HARARE 00661 02 OF 02 131301Z

MDC LEGAL ACTION, BUT THAT IT SHOULD BE CARRIED OUT IN

ANY CASE. COURT ACTION IS JUST ONE OF THE OPTIONS THE

MDC HAS AT ITS DISPOSAL, BITI CONCLUDED.

———————–

ALL IS QUIET … SO FAR

———————–

¶7. (C) SO FAR, THE REACTION ON THE GROUND IN HARARE IS A

PEACEFUL ONE. POST HAD HEARD A REPORT OF A SCUFFLE IN

THE HIGH-DENSITY SUBURB OF MBARE, TO WHICH POLICE

RESPONDED. EMBASSY OFFICERS TOURING THE AREA AND OTHER

SUBURBS SAW NO SIGNS OF DISTURBANCES. POLICE ROADBLOCKS

HAVE BEEN ERECTED ALL OVER THE CITY, BUT FOR THE MOST

PART, THEY ARE ONLY SLOWING AND NOT STOPPING MOTORISTS.

WE HAVE RECEIVED OTHER REPORTS OF ARMY DEPLOYMENTS TO

BULAWAYO AND GWERU IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. ANOTHER REPORT

STATED THAT ARMY UNITS HAD SURROUNDED MDC HEADQUARTERS

IN BULAWAYO AND WERE DEPLOYED TO THE BULAWAYO AIRPORT,

POSSIBLY TO PREVENT MDC LEADERS FROM LEAVING THE

COUNTRY. WE WILL REPORT ON NEW DEVELOPMENTS AS THEY

OCCUR.

SULLIVAN

CONFIDENTIAL

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