Mugabe, Dos Santos key to peace in DRC

President Robert Mugabe and Angola’s President Jose Eduardo dos Santos were key to securing peace in the Democratic Republic of Congo where President Laurent Kabila had rejected mediation by former Botswana President Ketumile Masire.

United States special envoy Howard Wolpe said threats by Mugabe and Dos Santos to withdraw their military support for Kabila were the only effective leverage on the DRC President.

Wolpe was discussing the way forward in the DRC with South African Foreign Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.

Zuma said Kabila’s rejection of Masire and his appointment of Members of Parliament was a clear statement that he was saying “to hell with the rest of Congo”.

Zuma said Kabila was effectively partitioning Congo and becoming a true dictator who was even jailing some of his own ministers.

She said the Southern African Development Community Countries had been too lenient with Kabila.

“We have all been giving carrots to Kabila but I don’t know what is the stick. I leave that to you,” she told Wolpe.

Full cable:

Viewing cable 00HARARE3941, FOREIGN MINISTER ZUMA SHARES VIEWS ON DRC WITH

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181540Z Jul 00

CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3047

PAGE 01       HARARE 03941 01 OF 03 181814Z

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——————6FA339 181814Z /07

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6640

INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

RWANDA COLLECTIVE

USMISSION USUN NEW YORK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 003941

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR A/S RICE AND PDAS POWELL

USUN FOR HOLBROOKE

NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2010

TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS CF SF

SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER ZUMA SHARES VIEWS ON DRC WITH

SPECIAL ENVOY WOLPE

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02       HARARE 03941 01 OF 03 181814Z

CLASSIFIED BY SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE FOR REASONS 1.5

(B) AND (D).

¶1. (C) SUMMARY: SOUTH AFRICA’S FOREIGN MINISTER DR. NKOSAZANA

DLAMINI-ZUMA AGREED WITH SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE’S

ASSESSMENT THAT NOTHING WAS MORE DANGEROUS FOR THE FUTURE

OF THE LUSAKA PROCESS THAN ACQUIESCENCE TO KABILA’S REJECTION

OF DRC FACILITATOR SIR KETUMILE MASIRE. ZUMA REVIEWED KABILA’S

ROLE IN EFFORTS TO UNDERMINE MASIRE, AND COMPLAINED ABOUT

BROAD COMPLICITY OF STATES IN ISSUING CARROTS TO KABILA, BUT

NOT APPLYING THE STICK. IN ZUMA’S VIEW, KABILA’S EFFORTS TO FORM

HIS OWN CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY, REJECT MASIRE, AND FOLLOW AN

APPROACH THAT EXCLUDES A LARGE PART OF THE CONGO FROM THE

SOLUTION, EFFECTIVELY SAYS, “TO HELL WITH THE REST OF THE CONGO.”

THIS IS A FORMULA, SHE BELIEVES, FOR THE ULTIMATE PARTITION OF

THE DRC. ZUMA MUSED THAT IT WOULD BE TIMELY TO CONVENE AN

OAU-SPONSORED MEETING OF THE STATE SIGNATORIES TO RESOLVE THE

MASIRE ISSUE, WITH MASIRE HIMSELF JOINING AFTER CERTAIN BOTTOM

LINES HAD BEEN WORKED OUT WITH KABILA. ZUMA WORRIED ABOUT

THE TENUOUSNESS OF THE LUSAKA ACCORD AND THE MILITARISTIC

INTENTIONS OF REBEL LEADERS SUCH AS MLC HEAD JEAN PIERRE BEMBA.

PRESIDENT MBEKI INTENDS TO REVIEW THE SITUATION IN THE DRC AND

TRY TO CATALYZE NEW ENERGY IN SUPPORT OF LUSAKA.   ZUMA

CAUTIONED ABOUT PERCEPTIONS OF TOTAL RWANDAN CONTROL OVER

THE RCD. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RWANDA AND THE RCD IS NOT

SIMPLE. ACCORDING TO ZUMA, THE GOR NEEDS THE RCD MORE THAN THE

RCD NEEDS THE GOR, BECAUSE IF THE RCD LINKED UP WITH OR

OTHERWISE COOPERATED WITH THE INTERAHAMWE, THIS WOULD

GREATLY ADD TO THE GOR’S SECURITY PROBLEMS. END SUMMARY.

¶2. (C) GREAT LAKES SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE MET 7/17/00 IN

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03       HARARE 03941 01 OF 03 181814Z

PRETORIA WITH SOUTH AFRICA’S FOREIGN MINISTER DR. NKOSAZANA

DLAMINI-ZUMA AT HER HOME ON THE PRESIDENTIAL COMPOUND. AMBASSADOR

LEWIS, SPECIAL ADVISOR JOHN PRENDERGAST, DEPUTY SPECIAL ENVOY

JAMES YELLIN, AND POLCOUNSELOR (NOTETAKER) ACCOMPANIED. JERRY

MATSILA, DEPARTMENT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS (DFA) ACTING DEPUTY

DIRECTOR GENERAL FOR AMERICAS, SAT IN ON THE SOUTH AFRICAN SIDE.

SEPTEL COVERS DISCUSSIONS ON BURUNDI AND CANDIDACY FOR THE

U.N. SEAT CURRENTLY HELD BY NAMIBIA.

———————

THE ASSAULT ON MASIRE

———————

¶3. (C) WOLPE ADVISED FOREIGN MINISTER ZUMA THAT NAMIBIAN

PRESIDENT SAM NUJOMA REPORTEDLY HAD EXPRESSED TO KEY U.S.

CONGRESSMEN THE VIEW THAT THE SADC ALLIES NO LONGER

SUPPORTED SIR KETUMILE MASIRE AS CONGOLESE NATIONAL DIALOGUE

FACILITATOR. WOLPE SAID NOTHING COULD BE MORE DANGEROUS TO

THE LUSAKA PROCESS THAN TO ACQUIESCE IN KABILA’S REJECTION OF

MASIRE. THE ISSUE, WOLPE SAID, IS NOT MASIRE BUT THE

FUNDAMENTAL OPPOSITION OF DRC PRESIDENT LAURENT KABILA TO THE

INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE. HE NOTED THE POSITIVE RESOLUTION ON

THE DRC PASSED AT THE OAU COUNCIL OF MINISTERS MEETING IN TOGO

THAT AFFIRMED FULL SUPPORT FOR LUSAKA, AND EXPLICITLY URGED

THE CONGOLESE GOVERNMENT TO COOPERATE WITH FACILITATOR

MASIRE. HE SAID THAT THE USG HAD NOT YET RECEIVED A

READ-OUT OF ZIMBABWE PRESIDENT ROBERT MUGABE’S RECENT MEETING

IN LUBUMBASHI WITH KABILA.

¶4. (C) ZUMA FULLY AGREED WITH WOLPE’S ASSESSMENT OF THE DANGER

POSED BY ACQUIESCENCE TO KABILA’S REJECTION OF MASIRE, ADDING

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04       HARARE 03941 01 OF 03 181814Z

THAT “WE HAVE ALL BEEN GIVING CARROTS TO KABILA BUT I DON’T KNOW

WHAT IS THE STICK. I LEAVE THAT TO YOU.” ZUMA ADDED THAT KABILA IS REJ

ECTING

MASIRE, APPOINTING MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT, AND ACTIVELY

VIOLATING THE INTEGRITY OF THE CONGO. THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE

IS MEANT TO ASSURE THAT THE CONGO IS INCORPORATED AS A WHOLE, SHE

SAID. IF KABILA IS FORMING A PARLIAMENT, HE IS ACTUALLY SAYING

“TO HELL WITH THE REST OF THE CONGO.” HE IS EFFECTIVELY

PARTITIONING THE COUNTRY AND BECOMING A TRUE DICTATOR, EVEN

JAILING SOME OF HIS MINISTERS.

——————

IS THERE LEVERAGE?

——————

¶5. (C) WOLPE RESPONDED THAT THE THREATBY ZIMBABWE AND ANGOLA OF

THEIR MILITARY SUPPORT OF KABILA WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY

EFFECTIVE LEVERAGE ON THE DRC PRESIDENT. THE USG CONTINUES

THEREFORE TO SEE MUGABE AND ANGOLAN PRESIDENT DOS SANTOS AS THE

KEY TO MOVING LUSAKA FORWARD. MORE GENERALLY, WOLPE SUGGESTED,

IT IS THE QUINTET OF EXTERNAL SIGNATORIES (UGANDA, NAMIBIA,

RWANDA, ZIMBABWE, AND ANGOLA) THAT CONTINUE TO HAVE THE

STRONGEST INTEREST IN IMPLEMENTING THE LUSAKA ACCORDS. AN

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PAGE 01       HARARE 03941 02 OF 03 181814Z

ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00   CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 VC-00   H-01     TEDE-00

INR-00   IO-00   L-00     AC-01   NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01

PA-00   PM-00   PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00   SSO-00

SS-00   TRSE-00 T-00     USIE-00 PMB-00   DRL-02   G-00

SAS-00     /005W

——————6FA33E 181814Z /07

O 181540Z JUL 00

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6641

INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

RWANDA COLLECTIVE

USMISSION USUN NEW YORK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 003941

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR A/S RICE AND PDAS POWELL

USUN FOR HOLBROOKE

NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2010

TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS CF SF

SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER ZUMA SHARES VIEWS ON DRC WITH

SPECIAL ENVOY WOLPE

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02       HARARE 03941 02 OF 03 181814Z

EFFORT SHOULD BE MADE BY THE EXTERNAL STATE SIGNATORIES,

WOLPE SUGGESTED, TO BUILD ON THE OUTCOME OF THE LAST VICTORIA

FALLS MEETING, CONSOLIDATE THEIR OWN POLITICAL UNDERSTANDING,

AND SECURE AGREEMENT ON WHAT WAS REQUIRED TO BRING ALL OF THE

CONGOLESE PARTIES INTO COMPLIANCE WITH LUSAKA. THE OTHER

IMPORTANT ELEMENT WOULD BE TO DEVELOP A MEANS OF RE-LAUNCHING

FACILITATOR MASIRE.

¶6. (C) ZUMA NOTED THAT THE OUTGOING OAU PRESIDENT TRIED TO

ORGANIZE A JULY 4 MEETING IN ALGIERS. HOWEVER, AFTER INITIALLY

ACCEPTING BOUTEFLIKA’S INVITATION, THEN SAID HE WOULD NOT COME

IF MASIRE WERE PRESENT. ZUMA SAID SHE THOUGHT A MEETING SHOULD

STILL BE CALLED, PREFERABLY ONE THAT INCLUDES KABILA. HOWEVER,

IF HE DID NOT ATTEND, THE PARTIES SHOULD STILL PROCEED TO MEET

AND TALK ABOUT WHAT SHOULD BE DONE ABOUT THE CONGO AND THE

INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE. ZUMA WENT ON TO SAY THAT IF KABILA

INSISTS ON THE ABSENCE OF MASIRE, THE LEADERS COULD AGREE TO

AN INITIAL MEETING WITH KABILA ALONE, INVITING MASIRE TO JOIN

THE TALKS AFTER THEY HAD REACHED AN UNDERSTANDING WITH KABILA.

“THE MEETING ITSELF IS IMPORTANT,” SHE SAID, “FOR THE PROCESS

TO BE EVALUATED PROPERLY AND A NEW WAY FORWARD TO BE FOUND.”

————————

LUSAKA HANGS BY A THREAD

————————

¶7. (C) ZUMA TOLD WOLPE THAT MLC LEADER JEAN PIERRE BEMBA HAD

CALLED HER SEEKING ADVICE ON A FUTURE COURSE OF ACTION, AND

BEMOANING HER EARLIER “ROLE” IN “STOPPING HIS MARCH ON

KINSHASA.” WOLPE NOTED THAT ZUMA WAS AMONG SEVERAL

INDIVIDUALS, INCLUDING UN PERMANENT. REPRESENTATIVE HOLBROOKE

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PAGE 03       HARARE 03941 02 OF 03 181814Z

AND WOLPE HIMSELF, THAT BEMBA HAD BEEN CALLING. ZUMA SAID

SHE HAD ADVISED BEMBA TO “CONSULT WIDELY.” BEMBA IN TURN

INSISTED HE HAD THE CAPACITY TO ADVANCE AND WOULD NOT ALLOW

HIS FORCES TO BE PUSHED BACK. HE DID NOT CARE TO HEAR HER

STATEMENTS ON THE PROVISIONS OF THE LUSAKA ACCORD AND TOLD

HER THAT LUSAKA MEANS THAT KABILA SHOULD NOT BE ATTACKING HIM.

BEMBA AFFIRMED, ZUMA SAID, THAT AS FAR AS HE WAS CONCERNED

LUSAKA STILL HOLDS. BUT HE ALSO TALKED ABOUT THE REALITY OF

50,000 REFUGEES HAVING BEEN CREATED AS A RESULT OF KABILA’S

RECENT OFFENSIVE IN EQUATEUR. SHE SAID SHE TOLD BEMBA HE

COULD DEFEND HIMSELF BUT HE SHOULD NOT TAKE THE OFFENSIVE.

ZUMA TOLD WOLPE PRESIDENT MBEKI WOULD BE LOOKING AT THE

SITUATION IN THE DRC AND WOULD TRY TO CATALYZE A NEW

INITIATIVE. ZUMA EXPRESSED FEAR THAT KABILA WAS NOW PUSHING

THE CONGOLESE PEOPLE TO A POINT WHERE THE LUSAKA ACCORDS WERE

IN DANGER OF COLLAPSE. IF BEMBA PERCEIVES HE IS AGAINST THE

WALL, SHE TOLD WOLPE, WE ARE IN DANGER OF GOING BACK TO THE

PERIOD WHICH PRECEDED THE LUSAKA ACCORDS. TO WOLPE’S COMMENT

THAT LUSAKA IS NOW HANGING BY A THREAD, ZUMA OBSERVED THAT

THERE MIGHT NOT EVEN BE A WEEK’S TIME LEFT TO SALVAGE THE ACCORD.

¶8. (C) ZUMA TOLD WOLPE THAT SHE DID NOT KNOW IF PRESIDENT MBEKI

HAD YET SPOKEN WITH MUGABE ABOUT THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS. SHE

HAD RECEIVED NO READ-OUT OF THE RECENT LUMUMBASHI BETWEEN

BETWEEN MUGABE AND KABILA.

——————————————— —

THE COMPLEXITY OF THE RWANDA/RCD-G RELATIONSHIP

——————————————— —

¶9. (C) WOLPE TOLD ZUMA THAT IN HIS CURRENT TRAVEL IN THE

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PAGE 04       HARARE 03941 02 OF 03 181814Z

REGION, HE WOULD AGAIN ATTEMPT TO GET THE PARTIES TO THE

DRC CONFLICT TO FOCUS ON MOVING FORWARD ON THE DISARMAMENT,

DEMOBILIZATION, RESETTLEMENT AND REINTEGRATION (DDRR) OF

THE NON-STATE SIGNATORIES. WOLPE EXPLAINED THAT ACCELERATED

DISCUSSION OF DDRR MAY BE A WAY OF SECURING MORE RAPID

DISENGAGEMENT OF THE ARMED PARTIES.   WOLPE SAID HE WOULD

ALSO BE DISCUSSING THE EVOLVING KISANGANI SITUATION.

RCD-GOMA (RCD-G) TROOPS ARE STILL IN KISANGANI WITH THE

ACQUIESCENCE OR ENCOURAGEMENT OF RWANDA. DEPLOYMENT OF

MONUC TO KISANGANI WILL BE KEY TO SECURING FULL

DEMILITARIZATION OF THE CITY, AND A PAKISTANI CONTINGENT

MAY BE READY TO DEPLOY.

¶10. (C) ZUMA CAUTIONED THAT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RWANDA

AND THE RCD IS NOT SIMPLE. THE IMPRESSION HAS BEEN CREATED,

SHE SAID, THAT RWANDA’S POWER OVER THE RCD EXTENDS TO THE

POINT WHEREBY IF THE RCD WAS ORDERED BY RWANDA TO SIGN AN

AGREEMENT, IT WOULD HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO COMPLY.   SHE

SAID SHE HAD ASKED RWANDA ABOUT THIS RELATIONSHIP. SHE WAS

TOLD THAT RCD MEMBERS LIVED WITHIN THEIR OWN COUNTRY AND

WERE NOT MERE EXTENSIONS OF RWANDA. IN FACT, THE RWANDANS

HAD EXPAINED TO HER, ZUMA SAID, THAT RWANDA NEEDED THE

RCD MORE THAN THE RCD NEEDED RWANDA. THE RCD HELD A POWER

CONFIDENTIAL

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PAGE 01       HARARE 03941 03 OF 03 181815Z

ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00   CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 VC-00   H-01     TEDE-00

INR-00   IO-00   L-00     AC-01   NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01

PA-00   PM-00   PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00   SSO-00

SS-00   TRSE-00 T-00     USIE-00 PMB-00   DRL-02   G-00

SAS-00     /005W

——————6FA34D 181815Z /07

O 181540Z JUL 00

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6642

INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

RWANDA COLLECTIVE

USMISSION USUN NEW YORK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 003941

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR A/S RICE AND PDAS POWELL

USUN FOR HOLBROOKE

NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2010

TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS CF SF

SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER ZUMA SHARES VIEWS ON DRC WITH

SPECIAL ENVOY WOLPE

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02       HARARE 03941 03 OF 03 181815Z

OVER RWANDA WITH DEADLY CONSEQUENCE — THE ABILITY TO LINK

WITH THE INTERAHAMWE, LOCATED IN THE CONGO, TO OPERATE IN

GOMA ANDOTHER AREAS. THE RCD IS NOT AN EXILE ORGANIZATION,

HERRWANDAN COLLEAGUES HAD TOLD HER, SO WHY DO PEOPLE THINK

RWANDA CAN DICTATE TO THEM? ZUMA SAID THE RWANDANS TOLD HER

THEY CAN ONLY HAVE A RELATIONSHIP WITH THE RCD THAT IS OF

VIRTUAL EQUALS. IN SUBSEQUENT DISCUSSIONS WITH THE CONGOLESE,

ZUMA SAID, SHE HAS VERIFIED THE COMPLEXITY OF THIS RELATIONSHIP.

YES, RWANDA HAS SOME INFLUENCE WITH THE RCD, BUT IT IS NOT TO

THE EXTENT PEOPLE THINK.

¶11. (C) WOLPE COUNTERED THAT THE RCD-G’S PRESENCE IN KISANGANI

SERVES RWANDA’S STRATEGIC CONCERNS. INDEED, RWANDA NEEDED

THE RCD-GOMA, BECAUSE RWANDA FEARED THAT, IN THE ABSENCE OF

MONUC DEPLOYMENT, KABILA OR THE MLC MIGHT TAKE ADVANTAGE OF

THE VACUUM CREATED BY RWANDAN AND UGANDAN WITHDRAWAL FROM THE

CITY. ZUMA, EFFECTIVELY CONTRADICTING HER EARLIER EMPHASIS ON

RCD-G’S AUTONOMY, SAID SHE DID NOT THINK RCD-G WAS STRONG ON

ITS OWN. IF RWANDA PULLED OUT OF THE DRC, ZUMA SAID, IT IS

UNLIKELY THE RCD COULD PREVENT KABILA’S FORCES FROM COMING

INTO KISANGANI.

¶12. (C) ZUMA RETURNED TO HER POINT THAT TO TREAT RCD-GOMA

SIMPLY AS THE SURROGATE OF RWANDA WOULD INEVITABLY CREATE

PROBLEMS. RCD-G MEMBERS, SHE SAID, MAKE THE POINT THAT THEY

ARE NOT FOREIGNERS IN KISANGANI AND RESENT ANY SUGGESTION

THAT THEY BE TREATED LIKE FOREIGNERS IN THEIR OWN LAND.

THAT IS WHY, ZUMA ASSERTED, THAT THE RCD-GOMA BELIEVES ITS

PRESENCE IN KISANGANI IS NOT A VIOLATION OF THE DEMILITARIZATION

AGREEMENT THAT UGANDA AND RWANDA HAD REACHED WITH MONUC.

ZUMA WAS SURPRISED TO LEARN, FROM WOLPE, THAT RCD-GOMA’S

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PAGE 03       HARARE 03941 03 OF 03 181815Z

BIZIMA KARAHA HAD PRESENTED TO WOLPE IN NEW YORK A SIGNED

COPY OF A SEPARATE AGREEMENT THAT THE RCD-GOMA HAD ENTERED

INTO DIRECTLY WITH MONUC, TO ACCEPT THE SAME DEMILITARIZATION

TERMS THAT UGANDA AND RWANDA HAD PREVIOUSLY ACCEPTED. WOLPE

TOLD ZUMA OF KARAHA’S DISCOMFORT WHEN HE WAS CONFRONTED WITH

THE RCD-GOMA’S BACKSLIDING FROM THE TERMS OF THIS AGREEMENT.

¶13. (C) COMMENT. THE FOREIGN MINISTER APPEARS TO HAVE A

PARTICULARLY SOFT SPOT IN HER HEART FOR RWANDA, ACCEPTING AT

FACE VALUE SOME ASSERTIONS OF BOTH RWANDA AND RCD-GOMA THAT

SHOULD PROBABLY BE SCRUTINIZED MORE CAREFULLY.   HOWEVER,

IN ALMOST ALL RESPECTS, THE FOREIGN MINISTER’S ASSESSMENT

OF THE CURRENT STATE OF THE LUSAKA PROCESS CLOSELY TRACKS THAT

OF THE USG. END COMMENT.

IRVING

CONFIDENTIAL

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