Mugabe and the other bad guys

Britain’s ambassador to Portugal Alexander Wykeham Ellis told United States ambassador Alfred Hoffman that British Prime Minister Gordon Brown would not attend the European Union-Africa summit in Lisbon if Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe showed up.

Britain would, however, not discourage other EU members from attending but already there were indications that the Dutch, Irish and Swedish leaders might follow Brown’s lead.

He could not confirm if Britain would send any representatives to the summit.

On the other bad guys, Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran, Ellis said Portugal’s approach was based on engagement.

Hoffman countered: “Irrational people cannot be expected to behave rationally”.

Full cable:

Viewing cable 07LISBON2527, PORTUGAL: UK AMBASSADOR ON ENERGY SECURITY,

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VZCZCXRO1258

RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR

DE RUEHLI #2527/01 2711536

ZNY CCCCC ZZH

R 281536Z SEP 07

FM AMEMBASSY LISBON

TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6308

INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 002527

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/WE KEVIN OPSTRUP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2017

TAGS: PGOV PREL OFDP PO

SUBJECT: PORTUGAL: UK AMBASSADOR ON ENERGY SECURITY,

RUSSIA, EU-AFRICA SUMMIT, AND MCCANN CASE

Classified By: POL/ECON TIFFANY MCGRIFF FOR REASONS 1.4 (B),(D)

SUMMARY

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¶1. (C) On September 21, newly-arrived British Ambassador

Alexander Wykeham Ellis informed Ambassador Hoffman that

European concerns over Russia’s aggressive energy policies

and the need for market competition were the driving forces

behind the third EU energy liberalization package. He

suggested that Russia’s position with its neighbors was

guided by a self-proclaimed right to do “what it wants, when

it wants” in its own neighborhood. Regarding Robert Mugabe’s

participation in the proposed EU-Africa Summit, Ellis said

the UK would not discourage other member states from

participating if PM Brown stayed away. He doubted, however,

if the Dutch, Irish, or Swedish would attend in Brown’s

absence. Ellis also noted that it was the British police that

developed the current evidence against Madeleine McCann’s

parents in the high-profile case that has captured

international attention. He informed the Ambassador that

former British Ambassador John Buck had accepted a

private-sector position at a UK gas company and that his

departure had nothing to do with bilateral issues. END SUMMARY

RUSSIA’S ENERGY GAME IS COMING TO AN END

—————————————-

¶2. (C) According to Ellis, European concerns over Russia’s

aggressive energy policies and the need for increased market

competition were the driving forces behind the third EU

energy liberalization package. He called Russia the greatest

threat to European energy security and described its energy

policies as a “game that’s coming to an end.” He argued that

Gazprom’s sustainability depends on the European distribution

network and that Putin, who is “always trying to make a point

to Europe,” knew and understood this reality. Quoting a

statement he had heard elsewhere, Ellis described Russia as

“too strong, too weak”; suggesting that it was a bipolar

society divided by feelings of strength and empowerment and

internal fears of national failure.

RUSSIA, THE BIG BAD NEIGHBOR

—————————-

¶3. (C) When questioned about Kosovo and Russia’s relationship

with its neighbors, Ellis suggested that Russia’s position

(on Kosovo) was driven by a self-proclaimed right to do “what

it wants, when it wants” in its own neighborhood. Ellis did

not believe that Russia had high regard for Serbia or any of

its other neighbors, but rather it feared outside influences

in the region. Reflecting on his position as Director of the

EU Enlargement Team in London (2001-2003), Ellis noted that

completing the 2004 EU enlargement phase had been difficult,

and hypothesized that if the Russia of now were the Russia of

then, the process would have been nearly impossible.

MUGABE…AND THE OTHER BAD GUYS

——————————-

¶4. (C) According to Ellis, the UK’s position on Zimbabwe has

not changed; if Robert Mugabe showed up, then Gordon Brown

would not. However, he could not confirm if the British

government would send any representatives. While he claimed

that the UK had steered away from discouraging other member

stated from attending, he noted the possibility that the

Dutch, Irish, and Swedish leaders may follow Brown’s lead.

Regarding Chavez and Ahmadinejad, Ellis commented that

Portugal’s approach was centered on “engagement” — even with

the so-called bad guys. Ambassador Hoffman countered that

“irrational people cannot be expected to behave rationally.”

While acknowledging that the US position was justifiable,

Ellis responded that there were sensitivities at play for

Portugal, especially regarding Venezuela. (Note: There are

approximately a half-million Portuguese living in Venezuela.

End Note)

THE MADELEINE MCCANN CASE

————————-

¶5. (C) Madeleine McCann’s disappearance in the south of

Portugal in May 2007 has generated international media

attention with controversy surrounding the Portuguese-led

police investigation and the actions of Madeleine’s parents.

Without delving into the details of the case, Ellis admitted

that the British police had developed the current evidence

against the McCann parents, and he stressed that authorities

from both countries were working cooperatively. He commented

that the media frenzy was to be expected and was acceptable

as long as government officials keep their comments behind

closed doors.

BIOGRAPHIC INFORMATION

—————————————–

¶6. (SBU) Ellis, a former school teacher, joined Britain’s

LISBON 00002527 002 OF 002

Foreign and Commonwealth Office in 1990 and moved

progressively up the chain to Ambassador. Lisbon was his

first foreign tour as a diplomat, followed by postings in

Brussels, Madrid and London. He has also served as Director

of the EU Enlargement Team in London (2001-2003) and as

adviser on energy policies and trade issues (2005-2007) under

EC President Jose Barroso. He is married to Portuguese

citizen Maria Teresa Adegas and has a nine-year old son.

Ellis informed Ambassador Hoffman that former British

Ambassador John Buck had accepted a private-sector position

with a British gas company and that his abrupt departure in

August 2007 had nothing to do with bilateral issues.

Hoffman

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